282
FXUS66 KLOX 100126
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
526 PM PST Sun Nov 9 2025

.SYNOPSIS...09/521 PM.

Monday will again be very warm and dry, especially across the Los
Angeles and Ventura County valleys. A cooling trend will start
Tuesday, ahead of the incoming storm system. Rain may start as
early as Wednesday night, however the heaviest rainfall and
greatest impacts are likely to occur Thursday and Thursday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM (SUN-WED)...09/1221 PM.

Upper level wind support wasn`t strong enough with this Santa Ana
event to push wind and hot temps to the coast today and it may
struggle again Monday. However, the valleys are warming up quite a
bit with many areas close to 90 as of noon. Meanwhile, most areas
below 500 feet elevation are in the 60s to low 70s. Winds haven`t
been overly impressive with this event either with just a
handful of sites over 25 mph. Models are still indicating a
slight increase in offshore flow Monday but still with very
minimal upper support so for the most part a very similar day as
today except likely a few degrees warmer.

A very shallow inversion is holding its own and some beaches are
still having periods of dense fog this afternoon. Since there is
little upper support again tonight there is a better chance than
not that dense fog will be an issue near the coast (and over the
coastal waters) and creating impacts for drivers, aviation, and
boaters.

A significant cooling trend will begin Tuesday as high pressure
weakens ahead of the next low pressure arrival. Gradients will
quickly turn onshore and most areas will drop 5-10 degrees both
Tuesday and again Wednesday. A deepening marine layer will push
low clouds into the valleys by Wednesday morning with highs back
down into the 70s.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...09/1248 PM.

Starting to get some improved consensus in the models regarding
the storm later in the week. Timing-wise models are zoning in on
Thursday being the primary period for rain across the area, but
with some early showers arriving Wednesday night along the
Central Coast.

Models are also coming into better agreement on the amounts as
well with a large percentage of the ensemble solutions showing a
heavy, but relatively short period of rain as the main front moves
through. Orographics will play a significant roll in the amounts
with upslope areas getting twice to 3 times the amounts at sea
level. Overall, sticking with the 1-2/2-4 inch range (coast and
valleys/mountains), with much of that falling in 5-10 hour period,
and hourly amounts between a quarter and half inch, and as much
as 0.75 in the upslope areas.

Snow levels will likely remain at or above 8000` for most of the
storm, then drop to around 6000 feet as the last of the precip is
moving through later Thursday night into Friday morning. At this
point it does not appear to be cold enough for snow on the
Grapevine, but some light accumulations (2-4") are possible down
to around 6000`.

Dry and cool weather expected next weekend with highs mostly in
the upper 60s to low 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...10/0109Z.

At 2331Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 600 feet deep. The top of
the inversion was near 1300 feet with a temperature of 29 degrees
Celsius.

For the 00Z TAF package, high confidence in desert and valley
site, but low confidence in coastal sites except for the Central
Coast sites where moderate confidence exists in LIFR-VLIFR conds.
Further south along the coast, low confidence exists due to
uncertainty in the timing and extent of CIGs. There is a 40%
chance of LIFR-VLIFR conds for all coastal TAFs. The timing of low
clouds arrival and dissipation could differ +/- 3 hrs from TAF
times.

KLAX...Overall, low confidence in the 00Z TAF. There is a 30-40%
chance of LIFR/VLIFR conditions overnight, most likely from 06Z to
15Z, but the timing could differ by +/- 3 hrs from TAF times. No
significant easterly wind component is expected.
KBUR...High confidence in the 00Z TAF.

&&

.MARINE...09/1216 PM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current
forecast. Today through Wednesday, high confidence in winds and
seas remaining below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels. For
Thursday and Friday, high confidence in a combination of SCA level
winds and seas. Additionally, there is a 30% chance of Gale force
Thursday night across PZZ676.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. Today through Wednesday, high
confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. For
Thursday and Friday, high confidence in a combination of SCA
level winds and seas developing. There is a 30% chance of Gale
force winds on Thursday.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. Today through Wednesday, high
confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. On
Thursday and Friday, there is a 60-80% chance of SCA level winds
with a 30-40% chance of Gale force winds.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...CMC
MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...Schoenfeld

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox