083
FXUS66 KLOX 021843
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
1043 AM PST Mon Nov 2 2026

.SYNOPSIS...02/1034 AM.

Small chance of very light rain for the Central Coast
Tuesday. Otherwise mostly dry conditions with a general warming
trend expected through the week. Periods of offshore winds this
week likely peaking in coverage and magnitude towards the end of
the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-WED)...02/903 AM.

***UPDATE***

Overnight low temperatures were quite chilly last night into this
morning across the region, with some interior valley areas
dropping down into the 30s. This should be the coldest overnight
lows for the remainder of the forecast period. A decaying cold
front will bring a slight chance to a chance of rain to the
Central Coast tomorrow, highest chances across northwest SLO
County. Some areas may see measurable rain, but not expecting any
major issues.


***From Previous Discussion***

More typical fall weather has returned with clear skies and mild
daytime temperatures but cooler nights. For the most part very
little change in this pattern expected for the next few days with
highs in the low to mid 70s. One possible exception could be the
northwest SLO County coast on Tuesday as the very southern portion
of a storm system just barely clips the northern part of the
Central Coast. At most maybe a few sprinkles there Tuesday
morning.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...02/219 AM.

High pressure will rebuild following the passage of the storm to
the north. Models have been consistent indicating increasing
offshore gradients, particularly Friday through Sunday. The latest
ensembles indicate a gradient of around -5mb during that time. For
now the models are not showing a ton of wind support aloft but
that could change as we get closer. In any case, there is
relatively high confidence in temperatures warming to the 80s in
the valleys as early as Wednesday and by Friday for many coastal
areas. There will likely be some Santa Ana winds as well but not
sure yet on the strength.

&&

.AVIATION...02/1843Z.

At 18Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer nor an inversion.

High confidence in 18Z TAFs, except moderate confidence for
KSMX/KSBP/KPRB with 30-50% chance of low MVFR to IFR cigs 10-18Z
and 10-20% of -dz or -shra.

KLAX...High confidence in TAF. VFR conditions will prevail.
Good confidence in any east wind component remaining below
8 kt and likely under 6 kt.

KBUR...High confidence in VFR TAF..

&&

.MARINE...02/1043 AM.

There is a 40-80% chance (highest southern waters, especially
point conception to near Channel Islands) for SCA conds developing
Tuesday afternoon and continuing into Wednesday. Finally, over
portions of the outer waters, SCA winds may persist through
Thursday or Friday.

SCA level seas of 8-12 feet are possible at times Wednesday
through the weekend focused across the outer and northern waters.

SCA level offshore winds may develop this weekend, most notably
offshore of the coastline from Malibu to Ventura

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement in effect until 6 PM PST this evening
      for zones 354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/Lewis
AVIATION...RM
MARINE...RM
SYNOPSIS...Lewis

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox