931
FXUS66 KLOX 020527
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
927 PM PST Mon Dec 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...01/755 PM.

A cooling trend will develop across Southwest California Tuesday
and Wednesday as winds shift to onshore. Another round of Santa
Ana winds will return Wednesday afternoon into Thursday with
warmer temperatures that will persist through early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (MON-THU)...01/925 PM.

***UPDATE***

Today showed some good warming supported by the offshore winds
this morning for the coasts and valleys, with temperatures rising
to the upper 60s to mid 70s. Santa Ana winds were generally in the
30 to 45 mph range, with some higher gusts above 50 mph for the
higher terrain. Winds have since dropped off, with some 25 to 30
mph gusts lingering over the Santa Susana Mountains and near the
I-14 corridor. Looking into tonight, the forecast looks on track
with lingering offshore winds and limited marine layer clouds.
Current frost and freeze products look on track, but will need to
keep tabs on colder valleys. Offshore winds will increase tomorrow
morning, but likely will remain below advisory levels. More
significant offshore winds are expected Wednesday into Thursday,
along with cold overnight low temperatures.

***From Previous Discussion***

The moderate Santa Ana event was waning early this afternoon with
most places within the Santa Ana Wind corridor likely falling
below wind advisory thresholds by 3 pm, the expiration time of the
Wind Advisory. The break in the wind will be quite short lived as
a second moderate Santa Ana event is likely by around noon
Wednesday and continuing into early Thursday. Slightly stronger
upper level support with this event may bring a bit more
widespread 50 to locally 60 mph gusts across prone mountain and
foothill areas. Elsewhere, gusts of 30 to 50 mph will be common,
potentially extending into the Antelope valley (Wednesday).

Where and when winds drop off the dry air mass will support some
of the coolest overnight lows we have experienced this season
with lows in the 30s and 40s common on colder nights with a
smattering of 20s for the far interior and at high elevations.
Freeze Warnings are in place for tonight for the Antelope Valley
and Interior San Luis Obispo with a Frost Advisory in place for
the Cuyama Valley. If you live in these areas, take steps to
protect any vulnerable animals or plants. Additional Frost/Freeze
products will likely be needed in the next few days, especially
Thursday and Friday mornings, in the wake of the second Santa Ana
Wind event.

Near to below normal temperatures will continue through Thursday.
Mostly sunny skies will prevail, outside of possible push of low
clouds and fog to coastal areas Tuesday night into Wednesday
morning ahead of the second Santa Ana wind event.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...01/100 PM.

Rain free conditions look to continue well into next week. There
is a 50-60 percent chance of a strong ridge building overhead into
early next week with weak to moderate Santa Ana conditions at
times. In this scenario, widespread highs in the mid 70s to mid
80s would be in play for coasts and coastal valleys. If the ridge
is weaker or offshore flow does not materialize (40-50 percent
chance), more seasonably warm temperatures (60s and 70s) would be
common.

&&

.AVIATION...01/2332Z.

At 2330Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer nor an inversion.

Overall, moderate to high confidence in 00Z TAF Package. VFR
conditions are expected at all sites. NE offshore winds will
continue to weaken tonight.

Light LLWS and turbulence is possible over and near mountainous
terrain across Ventura and LA Counties through this evening.

KLAX...High confidence in TAF. VFR conditions are expected.
No significant east wind component expected.

KBUR...High confidence in TAF. VFR conditions are expected.

&&

.MARINE...01/806 PM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current
forecast. Through Tuesday afternoon, high confidence in winds and
seas below SCA levels. For Wednesday, there is a 30% chance of
SCA conditions beyond 30 NM from shore. Winds and seas should
mostly remain below SCA levels Thursday through Saturday, with
winds increasing to near SCA levels at times, mainly Friday night
and Saturday night.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, high confidence in
current forecast. Conditions are expected to remain below SCA
levels through Saturday. However, nearshore from Cayucos to Morro
bay offshore wind gusts could approach SCA levels at times.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate confidence
in current forecast. For the nearshore waters from Ventura to
west of Santa Monica, weak offshore winds are expected tonight
into Tuesday morning. Another round of offshore winds is expected
for this area Wednesday night through Thursday morning, with a 30
percent chance of SCA gusts. Otherwise, winds and seas are
expected to generally remain below SCA levels through Saturday.

&&

.BEACHES...01/806 PM.

A long period west-northwest swell will bring building surf
to Southwest California Tuesday through Thursday morning. High
Surf Advisories have been issued across the Central Coast (8 to 12
feet) and Ventura coastline (7 feet). Surf heights up to 6 feet
can be expected elsewhere. Also, very high tides of 7 to 7.7
(MLLW) are expected across all beaches.

The combination of the long period swell and high tides could
result in beach erosion with isolated minor coastal flooding,
especially for west- northwest facing beaches from 4 AM to 12 PM
Tuesday through Thursday.

The Ventura coastline has the greatest overlap of high tides and
surf heights on Wednesday. Therefore, a Coastal Flood Advisory
has been issued from 3AM to 10AM for enhanced impacts. Please
see CFWLOX for more details. However, minor tidal overflow will be
possible during times of high tides Tuesday through Thursday in
low lying areas near the beach.

Beach Hazard statements have been issued for Santa Barbara
and LA County Coastline from Tuesday through Saturday morning.
Elevated surf will be highest Tuesday through Thursday.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Frost Advisory in effect from 1 AM to 8 AM PST Tuesday for
      zone 38. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     High Surf Advisory in effect from 3 AM Tuesday to 3 AM PST
      Thursday for zones 340-346. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     Freeze Warning in effect from 1 AM to 8 AM PST Tuesday for
      zone 344. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Beach Hazards Statement in effect from 3 AM PST Tuesday
      through Saturday morning for zones 349-350-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     High Surf Advisory in effect from 3 AM Tuesday to noon PST
      Thursday for zone 354. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     Coastal Flood Advisory in effect from 3 AM to 10 AM PST
      Wednesday for zone 354. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     Freeze Warning remains in effect from 1 AM to 8 AM PST
      Tuesday for zone 383. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Phillips/Munroe
AVIATION...Gomberg
MARINE...Black/Lund/CC
BEACHES...Black/Ciliberti
SYNOPSIS...MW/CMC

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox