130
FXUS66 KLOX 221744
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
944 AM PST Sat Nov 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...22/935 AM.

Aside from a few scattered showers this morning in Los Angeles
County, dry conditions are expected through the end of next week
with temperatures rising to near to slightly above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-MON)...22/943 AM.

***UPDATE***

Offshore flow continues this morning with gradients to the east up
to 4.3mb and plenty of upper support with the upper low a few
hundred miles to the south of LA. Isolated gusts into the 60s have
been reported in the LA mountains and even up to 59 mph in Porter
Ranch. The combination of the downsloping winds and less cold air
aloft temperatures across coast and valleys are expected to jump
several degrees today. Still seeing some light showers on radar
this morning across mainly the LA County mountains though those
should taper off before noon.

***From Previous Discussion***

An atypical Santa Ana event is in progress. The gradients are
normal for a Santa Ana between 3 and 5 mb offshore from both the N
and E. What is not typical is the position of the upper low which
is about 200 mile SSW of San Diego. Despite the odd position the
low is bringing NE flow over the area and adding support to the
Santa Ana Winds. Advisory level gusts will occur in the usual
Santa Ana wind corridor with gust from 35 to 45 mph across the
csts/vlys and 45 to 55 mph across the hier terrain.

The low is also bringing plenty of clouds and even some showers to
the north slopes of the mtns as well as the Antelope Vly. Some
snow flurries are possible above 6000 ft. Rainfall and snowfall
totals today will be insignificant.

The offshore flow will combine with mostly sunny skies (at least
over the csts/vlys) to bring 4 to 10 degrees of warming to the
area. Despite this warming max temps will end up 2 to 4 degrees
blo normal with the warmest temps only in the lower 70s.

The upper low will move off to the east on Sunday and a weak ridge
will move over the area from the SW. Hgts will bump up to 575 dam.
There will be enough offshore flow to keep any low clouds from
forming, but it will be 2 to 3 mb weaker than today and this will
allow for an earlier and stronger sea breeze. Max temps across the
csts and vlys will cool by 3 to 5 degrees. The higher hgts and
ample sunshine will bring 4 to 8 degrees of warming to the mtns
and far interior.

Not much change slated for Monday and it will be a very nice day
with light offshore breezes in the morning, sunny skies and max
temps in the mid 60s to lower 70s.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...22/1224 AM.

Weak ridging xtng up from the SW will continue over the state
through Thanksgiving. Hgts will rise some through Thanksgiving
with the EC forecasting a more significant jump to 585 dam
compared to the GFS more mild 578 dam. Weak to moderate offshore
flow will occur all three days (Tue, Wed and Thu) and this should
keep any low clouds away. Conditions will be dry with fairly low
humidities.

Max temps will warm all three days. Current forecast splits the
difference between the warmer EC and cooler GFS. So it could end
up 3 or 4 degrees warmer than fcst. Max temps will reach or exceed
normals on Wednesday and then will be at least 3 to 6 degrees over
normal on Thanksgiving.

The ridge will give way to weak troffing on Friday and there will
be large reduction in offshore flow as well. This may lead to the
return of some low clouds across the coasts in the mornings. Look
for a noticeable cool down of 3 to 6 degrees.
Some sort of retrograding inside slider is forecast to affect the
area next weekend. There is much uncertainty with this forecast
and the ensembles are all over the place. Blended and
algorithmically adjusted ensemble guidance shows about a 20
percent chc of rain both Sat and Sun which seems like a reasonable
first guess. Since this system comes from an overland route it
will not carry much moisture so even if it does rain the amounts
should not be much.

&&

.AVIATION...22/1129Z.

At 0939Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer. There was a surfaced
based inversion with a top at 600 ft and a temperature of 16 C.

Overall, good confidence in 12Z TAF Package. 10% chc of LIFR
conditions thru 16Z Sat, and again after 09Z Sun at KPRB.

Lgt-Mdt turbc and LLWS possible over and near to hier trrn.

KLAX...Good confidence in TAF. There is a 10% chc for east wind
component reaching 8 kts thru 17Z Sat, then 30% chc after 09Z Sun
thru end of fcst period.

KBUR...Good confidence in cig/vis portion of TAF. Wind speed and
direction may change randomly through 19Z. Moderate confidence
in winds thereafter.

&&

.MARINE...22/304 AM.

Small Craft Advisory (SCA) seas with wind gusts approaching
SCA levels at times (especially S of pt. Conception) is expected
through the weekend. SCA conditions may linger through mid-week
for waters 30NM from shore. Moderate chances for a combination
of SCA winds and seas to return next weekend.

Inside the California Bight, Santa Ana winds will continue to
impact nearshore from Ventura to Malibu through this afternoon,
with winds reaching Santa Cruz and Anacapa islands at times.
Conditions will improve Saturday evening into next week.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory remains in effect until 2 PM PST this afternoon
      for zones 88-354-355-358-362-369-371-374-375. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     High Surf Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Monday for zones
      340-346-354. (See LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Sunday for
      zones 645-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 2 PM PST this afternoon
      for zones 650-655. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Monday for
      zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Rorke
AVIATION...Black
MARINE...Black
SYNOPSIS...MW

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox