642
FXUS66 KLOX 110319
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
819 PM PDT Fri Oct 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...10/114 PM.

Gusty northwest to northeast winds will increase through Saturday,
then shift to northeast and weaken on Sunday. This will result in
drying conditions through the weekend. A storm system will affect
the area next week Monday Night through Wednesday, focused on
Tuesday, with widespread light to moderate rain and a potential
for locally heavy showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.SHORT TERM (FRI-MON)...10/818 PM.

***UPDATE***

Latest satellite and surface observations indicate clear skies
across the area, except for lingering high clouds across eastern
LA county. Based on radar trends, any precipitation is east and
south of the area. Current sounding data indicates marine
inversion around 800 feet in depth. As for winds, northerly winds,
gusting 30-45 MPH, are observed across the western range of the Santa
Ynez Mountains.

Forecast-wise for the immediate short term, no significant issues
are expected. Gusty northerly winds will continue overnight across
the western Santa Ynez Mountains with SBA-SMX gradient currently
running around -4.5 mb. So, current WIND ADVISORY in effect for
that area looks good and will remain in place. As for clouds, the
developing northerly flow should keep most areas cloud-free
overnight. the only exceptions will be interior sections of SLO,
SBA and Ventura counties. Also, there is a chance of an eddy
spinning up, bringing some stratus/fog to the LAX coastal plain
overnight.

Overall, current forecast looks good for the immediate short term.
So, no significant updates are expected.

***From Previous Discussion***

An isolated shower or two remains possible into the evening over
eastern Los Angeles County, mainly over the San Gabriels, but will
diminish overnight. The more interesting and impactful showers or
thunderstorms will stay to the east.

A large low pressure system, currently centered about 300 miles
west of the California/Oregon border, will continue to push to the
southeast and through Nevada by Sunday. A mostly dry front will
drop down through the west coast with it. While this will not
bring any rain to the area (except maybe a few light rain showers
to the north mountain slopes Saturday morning) it will spur a
moderate north wind event (thanks to its 80 knot jet and induced
north-to-south pressure gradient). Northwest winds are already
picking up on the Central Coast today, and will expand and
strengthen by the Saturday/Saturday Night peak when wind gusts of
30 to 50 mph will be common in the areas that typically get
northwest to north winds. These wind prone areas include the
Central Coast, most of Santa Barbara County (including the
southeast portion), the highway 33 Corridor, the I-5 Corridor,
Antelope Valley, Santa Clarita Valley, Santa Monica Mountains, and
the western San Fernando Valley. The current suite of Wind
Advisories look good highlighting the windiest areas. The winds
will turn to more northeasterly on Sunday but weaken along the
way. Sub-Advisory gusts in the 20 to 40 mph range are possible in
the mountains and favored foothills.

With all the winds, high temperatures will remain around normal
with highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s common. Skies will generally
be clear, but some spotty and unorganized low clouds are possible
as well as a few mountain wave clouds south of the ranges.

Monday will be the transition day between the warm and dry weekend
and the unseasonably early and cool storm system heading our way
(see long term section below).

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...10/231 PM.

Computer projections continue to show a yet-to-form low pressure
system riding the west coast Monday through Tuesday, before
pivoting inland on Wednesday. While there remains some range in
the timing and exact track of this system, which will determine
which of the four counties will see the highest rain amounts and
rates, the range of outcomes is narrowing to the point that we can
advertise a most likely outcome. At this point, the period of
focus remains centered on Tuesday (from 3am to 9pm). The area of
focus remains San Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara Counties, where
amounts between 1 and 2 inches look favorable. For Los Angeles and
Ventura Counties, amounts between 0.5 and 1.5 inches look
favorable (with the highest end of the range over Ventura County).
Favored foothills and mountains will likely see about double
those amounts over the 4 counties. The focus could shift to the
north or south depending on the track of the storm, but the slim
majority favor this outcome. Rain rates look behaved peaking
between 0.10 and 0.33 inches per hour - which would limit any
hydro impacts to the roads and outdoor activities. Unfortunately
there is a caveat to that all-clear message. The storm could slow
down (which about 10% of the projections show) which would
increase those totals. This storm is also very dynamic, with a
concentrated area of diffluence aloft and an upper level jet over
120 knots. That means thunderstorms are on the table, and the
associated potential of isolated heavy rain cells, lightning, and
even severe weather (strong winds or a tornado). Right now, with
the consensus track, those risks are highest over San Luis Obispo
and Santa Barbara Counties Monday Night into Tuesday, but that
could shift in time and place depending on that track.

Unsurprisingly daytime temperatures will plummet. Highs in the 60s
will be most common Tuesday and Wednesday (15-25 degrees below
normal). Overnight temperatures will be mild with the added
moisture and sky cover.

A few of the projection also so another low pressure system
spawning off the other one and retrograding westward back over
California Thursday or Friday. A few more projections dont. As
such, the is about as wide of a range of outcomes for the end of
next week, anything from more rain, thunderstorms, and coldness,
to warming and drying conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...11/0017Z.

At 2320Z at KLAX, the marine layer was at 500 ft deep. The top of
the inversion was around 1800 ft with a temperature of 25 C.

Overall, moderate confidence in 00Z TAF Package. VFR conditions
are generally expected with the exception of IFR CIGs possible to
likely for KSMO (30%), KPRB (40%) KLAX (60%), & KLGB (60%).
10% chc for LIFR/IFR CIGs at KSBP/KSMX from 06Z to 15Z Saturday.

Periods of gusty west & north winds are likely for many terminals.
Wind gusts may be off by 5 to 10 kts and/or wind direction by 30
degrees.

For SBA, low-level wind shear is possible from 02Z Fri to 12Z Sat.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in 00Z TAF. VFR conditions expected
through atleast 09Z Saturday. Arrival of IFR CIGs 005-010 expected
between 12Z-14Z and clearing 16Z-18Z Saturday. No significant east
wind component expected. However, gusty north winds are possible
starting around 03Z Sunday.

KBUR...High confidence in 00Z TAF. VFR conditions expected through
the forecast period.

&&

.MARINE...10/703 PM.

For the waters outside the southern California bight from
southwest through northwest of the Channel Islands, including the
nearshore waters along the Central Coast, winds will increase
through Saturday afternoon. Widespread Small Craft Advisory (SCA)
level conditions will continue through at least early Sunday
morning. There is a likely (60-80 percent) chance of GALES this
afternoon through Saturday evening, with the strongest winds from
near Point Conception south to San Nicolas Island. There could be
some relative lulls in the winds during late night and early
morning hours, but seas will likely remain at SCA levels through
Sunday. There is a 30-50 percent chance of widespread SCA
conditions lingering into early Monday morning. Due to the GALES
and hazardous seas, inexperienced boaters should seek or remain in
safe harbor.

Inside the southern California bight, SCA level winds are expected
mainly across western and southern portions of the Santa Barbara
Channel (including vicinity of Anacapa Island) through Saturday
morning. From Saturday afternoon through evening, GALES may develop
across western & southern portions of the Santa Barbara Channel.
Since these strong winds are likely to remain confined to these
areas, a GALE Warning is unlikely (but still a 25% chance).
Regardless, hazardous conditions are expected and inexperienced
boaters should seek or remain in safe harbor. Also, there is a
moderate chance for SCA conditions to reach the Ventura coastline
late Sat afternoon & evening. One last note, northerly cross-shore
SCA winds may develop across west-facing beaches adjacent to the
Santa Monica Bay Saturday evening.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory in effect from noon Saturday to 10 AM PDT
      Sunday for zones 88-350-352-353-375>379-381-383. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Wind Advisory in effect from noon Saturday to midnight PDT
      Saturday night for zones 340-341-346>348. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Wind Advisory in effect until 10 AM PDT Sunday for zones
      349-351. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PDT Saturday for
      zones 645-670. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Warning in effect from 3 PM Saturday to 3 AM PDT Sunday
      for zones 645-670. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Sunday for zone
      650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Warning in effect until 3 AM PDT Sunday for zones
      673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Kittell/Thompson
AVIATION...Black
MARINE...Hall/Lund/Black
SYNOPSIS...RK

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox