889
FXUS66 KLOX 130321
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
821 PM PDT Mon Oct 12 2026

.SYNOPSIS...12/449 PM.

Minor to moderate coastal flooding is likely continue through at
least Tuesday. Beginning Tuesday, moderate to strong offshore
flow will bring warm and dry conditions to the area through late
in the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (MON-THU)...12/821 PM.

Current satellite imagery showing some residual low level moisture
and associated clouds across the interior, otherwise mostly clear
skies. Any rain chances have ended this evening across the area,
and we will be noticeably cooler tonight in most areas, especially
the interior where lows in the 40s will be common. A slight
offshore wind component will begin to develop across the interior
on Tuesday, and that will lead to mostly sunny skies and some
warming. Further warming and drying will occur as an uptick in
offshore winds develop across the mountains and valleys of
LA/Ventura counties. At this point, thinking most areas will
remain below wind advisory thresholds on Wednesday, but the LA
county mountains will be close with gusts up to 40 mph likely.
LAX-Daggett pressure gradient peaks at -3 mb on Wednesday morning.
This will be enough offshore wind to bring another bump up in
temperatures on Wednesday, with most areas climbing into the mid
70s to mid 80s. This will likely set the drying stage before our
first widespread Santa Ana event that will likely peak Thursday
into Friday, bringing a return of fire weather concerns to the
region.

*** From previous discussion ***

A highly amplified upper level pattern has developed over the
eastern Pacific and it appears southwest California will be
experiencing quite a range of temperatures and weather conditions
over the next couple of weeks. The upper low over the area
yesterday and today that has brought scattered light showers and
much cooler temperatures will evolve into our first real Santa Ana
wind event of the season later in the week. For today though,
highs will mostly be in the 60s which is 10-20 degrees below with
some off and on light showers, mainly in the morning.

As the upper low slowly moves into the Great Basin, onshore
pressure gradients will be weakening and a light northeast flow
aloft will develop over the area as early as Tuesday afternoon.
Not expecting any winds of significance Tuesday but high
temperatures will warm up 4-8 degrees area-wide as the air mass
dries out and heights rise at least 10dam.

Wednesday will be noticeably warmer and drier as offshore
gradients continue to increase across the area heights climb
another 10dam. Still not expecting any significant winds yet
except possibly some northeast winds in the San Gabriel mountains
up to 40 mph.

Santa Ana winds will really pick up Thursday into Friday as all
the ingredients appear be in place and properly aligned. We have
above normal confidence in moderate to strong Santa Ana winds
during this timeframe. The latest ensemble pressure gradients
indicate that the peak offshore gradient will occur Friday morning
somewhere in the 5-7 mb range. Couple that with 50kt winds at 850
mb and very strong upper level subsidence, that should result in
peak winds of 50-70 mph in the San Gabriel mountains and 35-55mph
across the LA/Ventura valleys as well as the Ventura County
coastal areas and Santa Monica mountains. This will likely be a
hot and dry Santa Ana, so large and fast moving fires are a
concern heading into this time frame. As a reminder, Santa Ana
winds typically do not impact the LA Metro area and LA coast.

Temperatures will be peaking during these days as well with highs
in the upper 80s and 90s across all coast and valleys, including
the Central Coast. There is a very strong chance (60-80%) that
heat advisories will be needed for coastal areas and perhaps some
coastal valleys areas starting as early as Thursday and especially
into Friday.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...12/208 PM.

One more day of gusty Santa Ana winds are possible (30-40 percent
chance of reaching advisory levels) into Saturday, taking on a
more easterly orientation.

Temperatures are expected to remain well above normal through
Sunday, but slowly cooling into next week. And looking out a
little further there is fairly high agreement in the models that
another cold upper low will move into the area the middle of next
week, for another big swing into temperatures and weather
conditions. It looks like mainly a dry system at this point, but
there is some potential is tracks just enough offshore to support
some shower activity.

&&

.AVIATION...13/0006Z.

At 00Z at KLAX, A moist layer was present up to 8000 feet.

Overall, moderate confidence in TAFs. There is a threat of
isolated sprinkles or very light showers across LA county until
sundown. There will be 20-40% chance of MVFR CIGs through early
evening across KLAX, KSMO, KLGB, KBUR, AND KVNY.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a threat of
isolated sprinkles or very light showers at KLAX until sundown.
There is a 30% chance of MVFR CIGs through early evening. A slight
north to northeast winds component will most likely develop on
Tuesday morning, but expected to remain 6 knots or less.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a threat of
isolated sprinkles or very light showers at KBUR until sundown.
There is a 30% chance of MVFR CIGs through early evening. A slight
north to northeast winds component will most likely develop on
Tuesday morning, but expected to remain 6 knots or less.

&&

.MARINE...12/755 PM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current
forecast. On Tuesday afternoon and evening, there is a 40-60%
chance of SCA level winds around Point Conception. For Wednesday
through Saturday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining
below SCA levels.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. For Tuesday Wednesday, there is a
30% chance of SCA level winds in the afternoon and evening hours.
Otherwise expect conds to remain below SCA levels.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate
confidence in current forecast. Through Wednesday, high
confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels for most
area, but the only exception is the western half of the Santa
Barbara Channel where there is a 50% chance of SCA level winds
Tuesday afternoon and evening. On Thursday and Friday, there is a
40-60% chance of SCA level northeast winds from Ventura south to
Santa Monica.

Long period swell from the west and the south are affecting the
coastal waters, and can create a confused sea state. This can
make boating more challenging and dangerous, especially for small
vessels.

&&

.BEACHES...12/804 PM.

While the peak timing for the most impactful coastal flooding has
passed, there is still a threat of minor to moderate coastal
flooding through Tuesday, due to continued high tides and
elevated surf. The highest tides will occur during the mornings
and range from 7.0 to 7.5 feet through Tuesday, with secondary
high tides during the evenings (around 6 feet tonight decreasing
to 5 feet by Tuesday evening). As for elevated surf, a long period
southerly swell and long period westerly swell will impact the
coastal waters the next several days.

The Coastal Flood Advisory for the San Luis Obispo and Santa
Barbara coasts are in effect until later this evening, and the
rest of the coasts the Coastal Flood Advisory will continue
until Tuesday afternoon. The Beach Hazards Statement for Santa
Barbara South Coast will continue into Tuesday afternoon for a
combination of elevated surf and minor tidal overflow during high
tides.

A Beach Hazards Statement Tuesday through Thursday morning will
likely be issued following the Coastal Flood Advisory expiration
on Tuesday for the LA/Ventura County Beaches. This is due to minor
tidal overflow continuing to be possible during morning high
tides (remaining around 6.5 feet) and the 2 foot 15-16 second
southerly swell continuing to impact the area.

Please continue to monitor the forecast and refer to the Coastal
Hazard Product (CFWLOX) for more information.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Coastal Flood Advisory in effect until 2 PM PDT Tuesday for
      zones 87-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     Beach Hazards Statement in effect through Tuesday afternoon
      for zones 349-350-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Gomberg/RM
AVIATION...Gomberg
MARINE...Ciliberti
BEACHES...Ciliberti
SYNOPSIS...Ciliberti/RM

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox