805
FXUS66 KLOX 191153
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
353 AM PST Wed Nov 19 2025

.SYNOPSIS...18/128 PM.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will taper off this evening.
Light snow accumulations are possible above 6000 feet. Generally
dry weather is expected Wednesday with cool temperatures. Another
storm will bring rain to the area Thursday into Friday morning.
Dry and warmer weather is expected over the weekend into next
week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-FRI)...18/158 PM.

Pockets of showers continue this afternoon as the upper low moves
overhead. Most of the showers have been on the lighter side but a
nearly stationary storm near Seacliff in western Ventura County
has dropped some very heavy rain likely impacting the 101 freeway
in that area. Otherwise, showers have been on the lighter side and
very scattered, though with still some afternoon heating left
there could be some additional heavier storms developing before
sunset.

Expecting a dry day Wednesday in most areas with maybe a 5-10%
chance of a stray shower in the LA mountains. Temperatures will
remain well below normal with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s
across the coast and valleys.

Another storm will move into the area Thursday. The trajectory for
this one is a little more inland but most of the models have it
cutting off near San Nicolas Island Friday morning which could
maintain shower chances at least through midday Friday before it
moves south of the MX border. Given the trajectory, it`s not
surprising that models are indicating higher amounts again south
of Pt Conception, generally in the half to one inch range, though
there are at least 25% of the solutions in the 1-2 inch range at
lower elevations.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...18/201 PM.

The vast majority of our projections show a big change in the
weather starting this weekend, with drier and warmer conditions
through the Thanksgiving holiday week.

&&

.AVIATION...19/1150Z.

At 09Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer and no inversion.

There is a 10-20% chance of -SHRA on Wednesday for KWJF KPMD.
30% chance of -SHRA at KPRB, KSBP after 09Z Thursday.

LIFR to IFR conditions are expected to continue at KPRB through
16Z Wed (+/- 1 hour).

Chances for LIFR conditions through 16Z Wed: KOXR/KCMA (15%),
KBUR/KVNY/KWJF (20%).

Otherwise, high confidence in VFR conditions with light winds.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in 12Z TAF. Good confidence in VFR
conditions with east wind component remaining under 8 knots
through 12Z Thursday. Then, 30% chance of reaching 8 knots thru
end of forecast period. In addition, MVFR CIGs 020-030 with -DZ
or even -SHRA possible during this timeframe.

KBUR...There is a 20% chance of LIFR FG through 16Z Wednesday.
Otherwise, high confidence in VFR conditions and lighter than
usual winds.

&&

.MARINE...19/1257 AM.

Seas should continue to decrease and remain below Small Craft
Advisory (SCA) levels through early Thursday morning. Then,
another storm system will bring elevated seas up to 14 feet across
the outer waters and up to 6 feet for the inner water south of
Point Conception as early as Thursday afternoon. Seas will improve
some but remain at or near Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels
through much of the weekend across the Outer Waters. Wind
directions will vary considerably as the storm moves through the
region, with 20-30 kt winds common as early as Thursday afternoon
into the weekend.

Winds may locally reach 21 kts across the Santa Barbara Channel
and near the Channel Islands this afternoon & evening. A few
showers with a 5% chance of a thunderstorm is expected across
PZZ655 through this morning. The strongest cells will be capable
of producing brief heavy rain, gusty and erratic winds, locally
rough seas, dangerous cloud to surface lightning, and even a
remote chance for a waterspout.

&&

.BEACHES...19/1253 AM.

A 12-16 second 12-14 foot west-northwest swell will enter the
region Thursday evening, increasing surf heights to 12-16 feet
across northwest and west facing beach along the Central Coast
through the weekend, peaking Friday. Peak surf will flirt with
the 7ft threshold for west-facing beaches across the Ventura
coastline on Friday, and possibly through the weekend.

High Surf Advisories are in effect from Thursday evening through
Sunday evening along the Central Coast. Beach erosion with
isolated, minor coastal flooding is possible for west-northwest
facing beaches, especially from 8 AM to 1 PM from Friday through
Sunday.

Will let future shifts decide if a Surf Advisory is necessary for
the Ventura Coastline (40% chance).

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...High Surf Advisory in effect from 9 PM Thursday to 9 PM PST
      Sunday for zones 340-346. (See LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/Kittell
AVIATION...Black
MARINE...Black/Phillips
BEACHES...Black
SYNOPSIS...MW

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox