272
FXUS66 KLOX 031647
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
847 AM PST Tue Nov 3 2026

.SYNOPSIS...03/221 AM.

Partly cloudy skies today will turn mostly clear by Wednesday.
Otherwise it will be dry conditions with a general warming trend
and periods of offshore winds through the week. Warmest and
windiest conditions likely Friday-Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-THU)...03/844 AM.

A rapidly weakening cold front pushing in from the northwest will
bring a slight chance of showers to the Central Coast through this
afternoon or evening. Partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected
today with temperatures slightly below normal with widespread upper
60s to mid 70s.

A prolonged period (up to a week) of weak to moderate offshore flow
(LAX-DAG pressure gradient peaking somewhere between -3 to -5 each
morning) will set up in the wake of the system. Peak wind gusts of
20 to 40 mph will be common for interior mountains filtering down
into coastal ranges (such as Santa Ynez and Santa Lucias), valleys
and foothills at times through Thursday. This is mostly sub-
advisory, although there is a 20 percent chance that low end
advisories will be needed at times. A low end Santa Ana Wind event
may materialize by Friday with early estimates placing widespread
peak wind gusts in the 25 to 45 mph range (strongest in the
mountains) and teetering on advisory levels within the typical Santa
Ana cooridor.

Warming and drying trends will take hold by Thursday and likely
continue into the weekend thanks to the offshore flow and a moderate
ridge (peaking near 585 dm) building overhead. Moderate heat risk
with targeted Heat Advisories may be needed near the coast as early
as Friday. Widespread highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s are likely by
Friday, warmest coasts to coastal valleys. Fire weather concerns
will be on the rise during this period, however recent rains may
somewhat dampen or delay this concern.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...03/220 AM.

Friday and Saturday will have the strongest winds. Offshore flow
at the sfc will increase to 3 to 4 mb. At the same time a ridge
will nose into Nrn CA and bring some offshore upper level support
to Srn CA. Hgts will be near 584 dam. It looks like there will be
low end advisory gusts from a few miles either side of a line
drawn from Santa Clarita down through Simi Valley and out through
the Pt Mugu area. Skies will be clear through the period. 2 to 4
degrees of warming each day will bring max temps into the lower to
mid 80s across almost all of the csts and vlys.

A large high hgt upper low develops under the ridge on Sunday and
then swings to the east on Monday. This in of itself will not
have too much of an effect on the SoCal weather. The most
important change during this time will be the substantial
weakening of the offshore flow. This along with slight hgt falls
will bring 3 to 5 degrees of cooling over the 2 day period with
Monday`s highs still well above normal in the upper 70s to lower
80s across the csts and vlys.

Looking into the crystal ball the next chc of rain will be Wed/Thu
the 11th or 12th.

&&

.AVIATION...03/1608Z.

At 1600Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer. There was an
elevated inversion between 6000 feet and 8000 feet. The top of
this inversion had a temperature of 14 degrees Celsius.

For 18Z TAF package, moderate confidence in KPRB/KSBP/KSMX with a
20-30% chance of low MVFR CIGs 10Z-18Z.

For all other sites, high confidence in 18Z TAFs with VFR
conditions expected through the period.

KLAX...High confidence in 18Z TAF as VFR conditions are expected
to continue through the period. Any easterly wind component
tonight is expected to remain below 6 knots.

KBUR...High confidence in 18Z TAF as VFR conditions are expected
through the period.

&&

.MARINE...03/808 AM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current
forecast. Through tonight, high confidence in Small Craft Advisory
(SCA) level winds developing across PZZ673/676, but remaining
below SCA levels across PZZ670. For Wednesday through Friday, high
confidence in combinations of SCA level winds and seas across all
of the Outer Waters. On Saturday, SCA level winds are likely to
continue while winds drop below SCA levels.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. Through tonight, high confidence
in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. For Wednesday
through Thursday, there is a 50-60% chance of SCA level winds in
the afternoon and evening hours. For Friday through Saturday,
there is a 20-30% chance of SCA level northeast winds, mainly in
the afternoon and evening hours.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. Through tonight, there is a 60-80%
chance of SCA level winds across all of the southern Inner Waters.
For Wednesday through Thursday, high confidence in winds and seas
remaining below SCA levels. For Friday through Saturday, there is
a 20-30% chance of SCA level winds from Ventura south to Santa
Monica in the night and morning hours.

Today through Thursday, the gusty winds will likely result in
choppy, short-period, seas.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 1 PM this afternoon to 4
      AM PST Wednesday for zones 650-655. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from 8 AM Wednesday to 8 AM
      PST Thursday for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from 1 PM this afternoon to 8
      AM PST Thursday for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Munroe/Rorke
AVIATION...RAT
MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...Lewis

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox