708
FXUS66 KLOX 150537
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
1037 PM PDT Sat Jun 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...14/752 PM.

Strengthening high pressure over the region will bring warming
temperatures to most areas through Monday, except along the
beaches where a persistent marine layer will remain in place. The
warmest temperatures are expected away from the coast and into the
interior portions of the area. Gusty northerly winds will develop
each evening through Monday night across southern Santa Barbara
County and through the Interstate 5 Corridor. A cooling trend
should develop between Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM (SAT-TUE)...14/931 PM.

Southwest flow aloft, between an upper-level ridge of high
pressure over the Sonoran Desert and a weak upper-level trough off
the West Coast, is pushing some high clouds over the region this
evening. Stratus clouds have scoured away from a vast majority of
the coastal areas as a northerly surface pressure gradient
establishes. A few patches of stratus have formed along the
Central Coast this evening, but the low cloud field is shaping up
to be less robust. Any low clouds and fog will likely form in
place across the coastal areas overnight and into Sunday morning.

With less low cloud coverage and the high pressure system aloft
increasing heights, a warming trend will continue to take shape
away from the coast. While the best warming will occur across the
higher valleys and interior portions of the area, the beaches and
immediate coastal locales will still remain under the marine
influence and on the cool side of normal. Summer-like temperatures
will develop across the valleys and interior portions of the
area. A bit more warming was introduced for Sunday across the
valleys and interior portions of the area. Overnight low
temperatures were also increased for tonight as some foothill
areas will remain warm with temperatures in the upper 60s and 70s.

The exception for the idea of a cooler air mass at the coast will
be the southern Santa Barbara County coastal areas. A tightening
northerly pressure gradient has already developed and gusty
Sundowner winds gusting to up 48 mph (so far) have developed
across southwestern Santa Barbara County this evening. The pattern
will strengthen additionally on Sunday and Monday nights. While
the majority of the daytime hours will be cool and under the
influence of the marine intrusion, downsloping taking place in the
evening will warm the air mass into the 80s and lower 90s. Most
of the daily maximum temperatures will occur in the evening hours
the next several days. Gusty Sundowner winds will develop again
each night and likely be about 5 mph stronger than tonight. Fire
weather conditions are expected to deteriorate with near critical
fire weather conditions possible from the combination of hot and
dry conditions and gusty Sundowner winds. The forecast has the
warm and windy conditions well-handled at this time.

***From Previous Discussion***

Overall, 12Z models in good synoptic agreement through the short
term period. At upper levels, high pressure continues over the
desert Southwest through Sunday then get flattened by a trough
moving across the West Coast Monday/Tuesday. Near the surface,
moderate onshore flow will persist to the east, but there will be
increasing northerly offshore gradients.

Forecast-wise, main issue in the short term will be the winds,
more specifically northerly winds. High resolution models indicate
increasing northerly offshore gradients through the period. This
will translate to increasing northerly winds across the usual
spots (Santa Ynez Range and I-5 Corridor). Based on high
resolution models and ensembles, advisory-level winds looks likely
across the western Santa Ynez Range tonight through Sunday night.
By Monday night/Tuesday morning, the advisory-level northerly
winds look to spread into the eastern Santa Ynez Range (Montecito
area) as well as the I-5 Corridor. So, will issue WIND ADVISORIES
for the western Santa Ynez range tonight with a high likelihood
of advisories being needed Sunday night and Monday night. Other
than the northerly winds, the moderate onshore gradients to the
east will generate gusty southwesterly winds across interior
sections through Tuesday.

As for clouds, the marine layer will continue to be a challenge.
The increasing northerly flow will limit any stratus/fog across
southern SBA county through Tuesday. Otherwise, stratus/fog will
still be likely across most of the remainder of the coastal plain
with limited inland penetration to the coastal valleys as the
inversion should become a bit more shallow in the next couple of
days.

Finally with respect to temperatures, no significant changes to
previous thinking. At this time, Sunday looks to be the warmest
day across the area with valleys in the 90s and low 100s across
the deserts. Although well above normal, do not anticipate any
heat issues requiring any sort of advisory on Sunday. For Monday
and Tuesday, temperature trends will be mixed. However, most areas
will be slightly cooler, but still a few degrees above normal.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...14/129 PM.

For the extended, 12Z models continue to exhibit decent synoptic
agreement. At upper levels, ridge will nudge over the area on
Wednesday then will be flattened/pushed eastward as a trough rolls
across the West Coast Thursday through Saturday. Near the surface,
typical trends will continue with moderate onshore gradients to
the east and weak northerly offshore gradients.

Forecast-wise, no significant issues are expected through the
period. Wednesday will likely be the warmest day of the extended
as ridge pops up over the area and marine layer stratus is
limited. For Thursday through Saturday, a cooling trend can be
expected with the trough rolling across the West Coast, lowering
thicknesses and H5 heights. As for the marine layer stratus
coverage, will expect a gradual increase in areal coverage
night-to-night, but lingering northerly flow will continue to
limit stratus across the southern SBA county coast. As for winds,
typical southwesterly winds can be expected each afternoon across
interior sections.

&&

.AVIATION...15/0534Z.

At 0457Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 900 ft deep. The top of the
inversion was at 3100 ft with a temperature of 28 C.

High confidence in desert terminals (KPMD, KWJF). Moderate
confidence in valley terminals. Low to Moderate confidence in
coastal terminals.

For coastal sites, timing of cig/vsby restrictions could be off
+/- 2 hours and flight cat minimums off by one or two. There is a
40% chance VLIFR/LIFR cigs arrive at KSBP through 15Z Sun. Similar
chances that cigs do not materialize at KSBA through 15Z Sun.
KLAX...Moderate confidence in 06Z TAF. Arrival and departure of
cigs could be off +/- 2 hours. Likely a mix of IFR/MVFR cigs
006-012. Cigs could return as early as 09Z Sun (30% chance).
No significant east wind component expected.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in 06Z TAF. Low chance (10%) cigs
return from 08Z to 16Z Sun. Otherwise VFR conds are expected
through forecast period.

&&

.MARINE...14/814 PM.

High confidence in Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level northwest
winds across the Outer Waters and Inner Waters along the Central
coast through next week. Lulls in winds along the Central Coast
are likely in the overnight and early morning hours. There is
potential for Gale Force Winds Monday through Tuesday night, with
highest confidence in the Outer Waters. Seas will also approach 10
feet at times through next week.

High confidence in SCA level northwest winds across the western
half of the Santa Barbara Channel tonight, decreasing early Sunday
morning. SCA winds will increase again over the western Channel
Sunday afternoon and evening, then potentially expanding to the
eastern portion of the Channel Monday afternoon through late
Tuesday. There is a also a low to moderate chance of Gale Force
Wind gusts in the western portion of the Channel Monday and
Tuesday afternoon and evening. Otherwise, conditions look to
remain below advisory criteria through next week for the remainder
of the Inner Waters south of Point Conception. However, local SCA
wind gusts from the northwest may occur in typical windy spots
Monday afternoon through late Tuesday.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory in effect until 6 AM PDT Sunday for zones
      349-351. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Beach Hazards Statement in effect through late Sunday night
      for zones 354-362-366-367. (See LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Sunday for
      zones 645-650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PDT Monday for
      zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Watch in effect from Monday afternoon through late
      Tuesday night for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Hall/Thompson
AVIATION...Black
MARINE...Lewis/Ciliberti
SYNOPSIS...Hall

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox