154
FXUS66 KLOX 182208
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
208 PM PST Tue Nov 18 2025

.SYNOPSIS...18/128 PM.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will taper off this evening.
Light snow accumulations are possible above 6000 feet. Generally
dry weather is expected Wednesday with cool temperatures. Another
storm will bring rain to the area Thursday into Friday morning.
Dry and warmer weather is expected over the weekend into next
week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-FRI)...18/158 PM.

Pockets of showers continue this afternoon as the upper low moves
overhead. Most of the showers have been on the lighter side but a
nearly stationary storm near Seacliff in western Ventura County
has dropped some very heavy rain likely impacting the 101 freeway
in that area. Otherwise, showers have been on the lighter side and
very scattered, though with still some afternoon heating left
there could be some additional heavier storms developing before
sunset.

Expecting a dry day Wednesday in most areas with maybe a 5-10%
chance of a stray shower in the LA mountains. Temperatures will
remain well below normal with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s
across the coast and valleys.

Another storm will move into the area Thursday. The trajectory for
this one is a little more inland but most of the models have it
cutting off near San Nicolas Island Friday morning which could
maintain shower chances at least through midday Friday before it
moves south of the MX border. Given the trajectory, it`s not
surprising that models are indicating higher amounts again south
of Pt Conception, generally in the half to one inch range, though
there are at least 25% of the solutions in the 1-2 inch range at
lower elevations.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...18/201 PM.

The vast majority of our projections show a big change in the
weather starting this weekend, with drier and warmer conditions
through the Thanksgiving holiday week.

&&

.AVIATION...18/1749Z.

At 18Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer.

High confidence in TAFs for all sites, with periods of MVFR conds
as scattered clouds will move throughout the region. SHRA
possible at any site, especially KSBA and south through this
evening. There is a 20% chance for VLIFR conds at KPRB, KBUR,
and/or KVNY 10Z-17Z.

There is a 10-20 percent chc of a TSTM through 21Z KSBA and
north and 20-02Z elsewhere.

KLAX...High confidence in TAF. 30% chance of -SHRA through 02Z,
with a 10% chance for TSTM 20Z-02Z. Periods of 015-030 cigs
possible at any point. No significant east wind component
expected.

KBUR...High confidence in TAF. 30% chance of -SHRA through 02Z,
with a 10% chance for TSTM 20Z-02Z. Periods of 015-030 cigs
possible at any point.

&&

.MARINE...18/141 PM.

Seas across the Outer Waters may linger near 10 feet through late
this afternoon. Then high confidence in conditions remaining
relatively calm through Thursday morning. Another storm system
will bring elevated seas up to 14 feet across the outer waters and
up to 6 feet for the inner water south of Point Conception as
early as Thursday afternoon. Seas will improve some but remain at
or near Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels through much of the
weekend across the Outer Waters. Winds will be quite variable
directionally as the storm moves to the south through the region,
but periods of 20-30 knot winds will be common as early as
Thursday afternoon into the weekend.

Nearshore northeast winds of 15-25 knots may surface between
Ventura Harbor to Malibu early Friday through Saturday afternoon.

There is a 10-20 percent chance of thunderstorms across the
coastal waters through this evening, highest chances south of
Point Conception. Any thunderstorms that develop will be capable
of producing brief heavy rain, small hail, dangerous cloud to
surface lightning, gusty and erratic winds, locally rough seas,
and possible waterspouts.

&&

.BEACHES...18/120 PM.

A 12-15 second 12-14 foot west-northwest swell will enter the
region Thursday evening, increasing surf heights to 12-16 feet
across northwest and west facing beach along the Central Coast
into the weekend, peaking Friday. Surf will approach the 6-8 foot
range in Ventura Friday.

High Surf Advisories are likely (80% chance) for the Central
coast, and there is a chance for Ventura (40%), and Los Angeles
(20%) counties.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect until 10 PM PST
      this evening for zones 377-380. (See LAXWSWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PST this evening
      for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/Kittell
AVIATION...Lewis
MARINE...Lewis
BEACHES...Lewis
SYNOPSIS...MW

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox