304
FXUS66 KLOX 172110
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
110 PM PST Mon Nov 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...17/327 AM.

A cooler storm system will spread rain from northwest to
southeast across the area late tonight through tonight, with
decreasing showers continuing into Tuesday. Wednesday will offer a
brief respite from the rain with warmer temperatures. Another
storms is slated to arrive next Thursday and linger into Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-THU)...17/108 PM.

Overall, 12Z models in good synoptic agreement through the period.
Main issues will be upper low passing across the area, bringing
another round of precipitation to the area. The low drop southward
across Point Conception tonight/Tuesday before moving east across
far Southern California Wednesday and Thursday.

RAIN...

Cold front is currently moving across Ventura county and will move
into LA county later this afternoon. In association with the
front, light to moderate rainfall can be expected, generating a
majority of the widespread measurable rainfall. Behind the front
tonight and Tuesday, an unstable and showery pattern will prevail
as the upper low drops southward. By Tuesday evening, rainfall
totals with this system are expected to range from 0.50-1.00
inches for coastal/valley areas with 1-2 inches for the foothills
and mountains. Rainfall rates through Tuesday are expected to
generally be under 0.50 inches per hour and will generate nuisance
flooding across the area. However, the latest high resolution RRFS
and HRRR indicate the potential for rain rates around 1.00 inch
per hour along the front this afternoon across Ventura and
especially LA counties. If these rates does come to fruition,
there could be some significant debris flows across the burn
scars, including the Palisades and Eaton Scars.

After a dry day on Wednesday, another system will impact the area
on Thursday. At this time, rain looks to begin across the Central
Coast Thursday morning, working its way south into LA county by
Thursday afternoon/evening. By Thursday evening, rainfall totals
will generally range between 0.25 and 0.75 inches.

SNOW...

Based on latest guidance, current snow levels are around 7000
feet, but will drop to around 5000 feet tonight and on Tuesday.
The bulk of the rainfall will fall before the snow levels drop.
However, there still should be some decent accumulations across
the northern Ventura mountains and the eastern San Gabriel
Mountains (5-10 inches above 7000 feet and 2-5 inches between 5000
and 7000 feet). So, have issued a WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY for
these areas through 1000 PM Tuesday.

As for the Grapevine area, there is a chance of a dusting of snow
Tuesday morning as the snow levels lower.

Anyone traveling through the mountains through Tuesday should be
ready for winter weather conditions.

THUNDERSTORMS...

Along with the rain and snow, thunderstorms will be a risk for
the through Tuesday. As the upper low drops southward today, a
cold and unstable air mass will bring a threat of thunderstorms
to all areas. On Tuesday, the threat of thunderstorms looks to be
confined to LA county as well as interior sections of Ventura and
Santa Barbara counties.

Any thunderstorms that develop will be capable of producing
frequent lightning and gusty/erratic winds. Additionally, any
storms could produce significant rainfall rates, likely exceeding
the sub-hourly USGS thresholds, and could generate significant
debris flows in and around the recent burn scars.

If you live near a burn scar, be prepared for significant rainfall
and potential debris flows. Pay attention to local emergency
officials for any actions to take if conditions do deteriorate.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...17/107 PM.

For the extended, models continue to exhibit decent synoptic
agreement through the period. Main feature of note will be upper
low that will impact the area Friday and Saturday.

On Friday, this upper low will drop southward, southwest of San
Nicolas Island and will move eastward into northern Baja Mexico on
Saturday and Sunday. With this pattern, the threat of rain will
continue for all areas on Friday, but will diminish from north to
south through the day with a lingering slight chance of showers on
Saturday south of Point Conception. With this system from Thursday
through Saturday, rainfall totals are expected to range from 0.25
to 0.75 inches across coastal and valley areas with up to around
1.25 inches across the foothills and mountains. However, given
the nature of upper lows, there is the potential for rainfall
totals to be a bit higher than currently forecast. Snow levels
look to drop to around 5500 feet on Friday/Saturday which could
result in several inches of additional snowfall.

On Sunday, the low will move eastward. This will bring some
welcome dry conditions to the area.

&&

.AVIATION...17/1728Z.

At 1715Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer. There was a deep
moist layer up to around 10000 feet.

Overall, low to moderate confidence in 18Z TAF package. With
passing front and showers behind it, CIGs and VSBYs will likely
bounce around between VFR and IFR at most sites through the
period. So, low confidence in timing of any flight category
changes.

There will be a 15-25% chance of thunderstorms for all sites
through tonight. Any thunderstorms will be capable of producing
brief heavy rain, frequent lightning and gusty/erratic winds.

KLAX...Low to moderate confidence in 18Z TAF. Timing of rain as
well as timing of flight category changes could be +/- 3 hours of
current forecasts. There is a 20-30% chance of IFR CIGs 22Z-03Z.
High confidence in east to southeast winds around 10 knots
through 00Z then winds will shift to a westerly direction.

KBUR...Low to moderate confidence in 18Z TAF. Timing of rain as
well as timing of flight category changes could be +/- 3 hours of
current forecasts. There is a 20-30% chance of IFR CIGs 22Z-03Z.

&&

.MARINE...17/108 PM.

For the waters from southwest through northwest of the Channel
outside the southern California bight and the nearshore waters
along the Central Coast, Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds
continue through tonight. Seas will build to SCA levels through
tonight and persist through Tuesday night, although there is a
chance for seas to decrease below SCA level by mid-day Tuesday.
Winds and seas will likely fall below SCA levels for Wednesday and
Thursday, then there is a moderate to high (30-50 percent) chance
of SCA conditions developing on Friday.

Inside the Southern California Bight, SCA level winds will
continue through tonight, with a chance to linger into the early
morning hours. Short- period seas will likely grow to SCA levels
by this evening. Conditions will likely remain below SCA levels
for Wednesday and Thursday, then there is a moderate- to- high
(30-50 percent) chance of SCA conditions developing on Friday.

There is a 10-20 percent chance of thunderstorms across the
coastal waters through at least tonight. Chances may linger into
Tuesday night. Any thunderstorms that develop will be capable of
producing brief heavy rain, small hail, dangerous cloud to
surface lightning, gusty and erratic winds, locally rough seas,
and possible waterspouts.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...High Surf Advisory in effect until 10 AM PST Tuesday for
      zones 340-346. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     Wind Advisory remains in effect until 4 PM PST this afternoon
      for zones 376>378. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Winter Weather Advisory in effect until 10 PM PST Tuesday for
      zones 377-380. (See LAXWSWLOX).
     Wind Advisory remains in effect until 9 PM PST this evening
      for zones 379>382. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 AM PST Tuesday for
      zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 2 AM PST Tuesday for
      zones 650-655. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PST Tuesday for
      zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Thompson
AVIATION...RAT
MARINE...Hall/Lewis
SYNOPSIS...Smith

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox