593
FXUS66 KLOX 250550
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
1050 PM PDT Sat Oct 24 2026

***UPDATED AVIATION SECTION***

.SYNOPSIS...24/817 PM.

Weak northeast winds this weekend will continue to bring drier
conditions and warmer temperatures through the first half of this
coming week. Cooler conditions will follow, with a growing
potential for a storm system towards the end of the week and into
next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM (SAT-TUE)...24/725 PM.

Overall, latest models in good synoptic agreement through the
short term period. At upper levels, weak ridge will move across
the area tonight/Sunday with broad cyclonic flow developing on
Monday and Tuesday. At the surface, a general weak diurnal flow
will prevail through Monday with weak onshore flow on Tuesday.

Forecast-wise, relatively benign weather is expected through the
short term period. With the gradual return of onshore pressure
gradients, the marine layer should start to become more
established from night-to-night across the coastal plain.
Otherwise, skies are expected to remain mostly clear through the
period.

With respect to winds, the weakening of the offshore flow the last
couple of days will keep any offshore winds rather weak and
localized tonight through Monday. On Tuesday, more widespread
onshore winds will return to the area, but speeds will remain well
below advisory levels.

Finally as for temperatures, there will be minor day-to-day
changes through Monday, mainly at the whims of the onshore flow
and marine influence. On Tuesday, will expect some slight cooling
for most areas with the uptick in onshore flow.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...24/725 PM.

For the extended, latest models continue to exhibit a rather broad
synoptic agreement, but differ in the details. At upper levels, a
low will develop over the Pacific Northwest on Wednesday/Thursday.
On Friday and Saturday, the GFS continues to drop the low south
along the coast while the ECMWF keeps over the Pacific Northwest
(resulting in a sharp trough sweeping across the area).

Overall, either solution indicates a wet and unsettled Halloween
weekend for Southern California. At this time, there is high
confidence in measurable rainfall for most, if not all, of the
area Friday through the weekend. However, confidence in timing of
rainfall and totals remain very low. The latest 12Z/18Z runs have
backed off on totals just a bit with even the run total QPF on the
ensembles decreasing. Previous estimates of totals from 0.50 to
2.00 inches are still in play, but totals, in the end, could be
more or less than that range.

The uncertainty in this pattern will be a challenge over the
coming days. So, the forecast will likely change from one day to
the next. However, residents should expect Halloween activities to
be impacted by rainfall to some level. Stay tuned for the latest
details about this upcoming storm.

&&

.AVIATION...25/0549Z.

At 05Z over KLAX, there was no marine layer and no inversion.

High confidence in VFR conditions at all TAF sites through at
Sunday, except a 20% chance of LIFR FG near KSMX 12-16Z. Chances
for LIFR/IFR ceilings Monday 10-16Z at KPRB 30%, KSBP 20%, KSMX
40%, KLAX 20%, KLGB 20%.

KLAX...High confidence in VFR conditions, except for a 20% of
LIFR/IFR conditions Monday 12-16Z. High confidence in any east
winds staying under 08 knots.

KBUR...High confidence in VFR conditions through at least Monday
with typical winds.

&&

.MARINE...24/752 PM.

High confidence in quiet conditions through this weekend.
Northwest winds will increase early this coming week. SCA
conditions are likely Monday and Tuesday for the outer waters
from near Point Sal through San Nicolas Island.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Coastal Flood Advisory in effect from 5 AM Sunday to 1 PM PDT
      Thursday for zones 340-346-349-350-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Thompson
AVIATION...RK
MARINE...Ciliberti
SYNOPSIS...Ciliberti

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox