710
FXUS66 KLOX 191741
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
941 AM PST Wed Nov 19 2025

.SYNOPSIS...19/916 AM.

Dry but cool weather today. The next storm will bring widespread
light to moderate rain and mountain snow Thursday into Friday.
Northeast winds and high pressure aloft will push temperatures
back to normal this weekend continuing through next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-FRI)...19/940 AM.

***UPDATE***

A break in the rainy pattern today with plenty of sunshine but
temperatures about 10 degrees below normal.

Everything looks on track for the last storm in this cycle to come
through the area Thursday into Friday. As mentioned in the last
few discussions, while most of the ensembles favor a .5-1"
coast/valley and 1-2" foothill/mountain rain distribution, there
are still several that raise those by 50%. Since this is another
cutoff low a lot will depend on the ultimate track with small
adjustments potentially having bigger impacts. But because the low
is generally hugging the coast rather than approaching from the
northwest rain amounts are still expected to be highest south of
Pt Conception. Snow levels will generally be above 6000 feet, so
no snow impacts expected over the Grapevine, but several inches of
snow are possible at higher elevations.

Also, there is still a potential for thunderstorms and severe
weather Thursday night into Friday morning, especially over the
coastal waters and LA County, again with a big dependence on the
track. Waterspouts, small tornados, and strong wind gusts are
possible during that time.

***From Previous Discussion***

In what seems to be a broken and skipping record, yet another
storm system will quickly replace our most recent one. A long and
narrow cold front is just off the Oregon Coast, and will sweep
down the California coast tonight through Thursday. Widespread
light to moderate rain will affect all four of our counties on
Thursday. By Thursday afternoon, the center of the low pressure
system driving this front will quickly drop south and over north-
central California. This fairly unusual development will reverse
the typical evolution of our cold fronts and actually enhance it
as it moves from north-to-south. The higher totals and rates will
be over LA County as a result, instead of San Luis Obispo County.
As the low continues to dive southward into San Diego by Friday
morning, LA and Ventura Counties will continue to be dealing with
showers well after the front passes. With 500 millibar
temperatures around 25C, there should be a few thunderstorms or
thunderstorm- like cells - which could bring some very localized
but strong and swirling wind gusts.

Rain totals and rates are a bit tricky. Fairly confident that San
Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara Counties will have lighter totals
(0.25 to 0.50 inches common, except 0.5 to 1.0 inches in some
favored mountains) and rates (0.10 to 0.25 inches per hour).
Impacts should be fairly minor. For Los Angeles and Ventura
Counties, the most likely outcome is for moderate amounts (0.5 to
1.0 inches except 1 to 2 inches in favored mountains and hills)
and rates (0.20 to 0.33 inches per hour). The convective and
dynamic nature of the proximity of the low brings the potential of
double those amounts, but moderate easterly flow which can
evaporate some of the rain brings a potential for half those
amounts. The best estimate is for those competing factors to
generally cancel each other out, but that is far from certain. As
a result, impacts will likely be minor to moderate, with a focus
on road issues and enhanced mudslides and rockslides due to the
soggy soils. If the higher end scenario pans out, still think the
potential for major impacts is quite small, but some localized
shallow debris flows and flooded road closures would likely
materialize.

Snow levels will be above 6,000 feet for most of the
precipitation, but will drop to as low at 5,000 feet on Friday.
Snow amounts of 3 to 6 inches is the most likely outcome for
elevations above 6000 or 6500 feet. Winter Weather Advisory will
probably be issued for the San Gabriels and Mount Pinos areas,
with some snowy and icy road impacts.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...19/357 AM.

There is a possibility that the Thursday and Friday low pressure
system, which does cut off from the prevailing jet stream, lingers
in the region on Saturday. Cannot discount additional isolated
showers during the day on Saturday, but the trends will certainly
be going down. Eventually that low will move on its merry way to
the east, and get replaced by a small but good-enough high
pressure ridge. With weak offshore flow and pressure gradients,
temperatures will climb back to around normal by Sunday and
Monday, when highs in the mid 60s to mid 70s will be common.
Little change expected through the Thanksgiving holiday. Not
seeing any significant signals for rain through at least Black
Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...19/1150Z.

At 1738Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer nor inversion.

There is a 10% chance of -SHRA for KWJF and KPMD through 20/06Z.

High confidence in VFR conds at all sites until 10Z, moderate
confidence in TAFs thereafter. A cold front will swing through
the region from north to south, beginning at KPRB. -SHRA to +RA
possible at times, with heaviest rain expected KSBA and south
after 18Z. IFR to MVFR conds likely with rain, but localized LIFR
possible with heavier rain. Gustiest winds expected after the
period, but lower confidence in wind direction and speed due to
dependence on the location of the upper level low moving over the
region.

KLAX...High confidence in TAF through 15Z, moderate confidence
thereafter. Timing of rain may be off +/- 3 hours. Rain may
heavier at times, especially after 20/21Z. LIFR to IFR conds
possible with heavier rain. Lower confidence in wind direction,
but moderate confidence in S-E winds 20/13Z - 21/18Z. Strongest
winds between 20/21Z and 21/04Z. Moderate confidence in east wind
component remaining over 8 knots through the aforementioned time
frame.

KBUR...High confidence in TAF through 15Z, moderate confidence
thereafter. Timing of rain may be off +/- 3 hours. Rain may
heavier at times, especially after 20/21Z. LIFR to IFR conds
possible with heavier rain.

&&

.MARINE...19/757 AM.

Seas should remain below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels
through early Thursday morning. Then, another storm system will
bring elevated seas up to 14 feet across the outer waters and up
to 6 feet for the inner water south of Point Conception as early
as Thursday afternoon. Seas will improve some but remain at or
near Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels through much of the weekend
across the Outer Waters. Wind directions will vary considerably
as the storm moves through the region, with 20-30 kt winds common
as early as Thursday afternoon into the weekend.

Winds may locally reach 21 kts across the Santa Barbara Channel
and near the Channel Islands this afternoon & evening. A few
showers are present across the waters off the Orange County coast.
There is a 10% chance for thunderstorms late this morning. The
strongest cells will be capable of producing brief heavy rain,
gusty and erratic winds, locally rough seas, dangerous cloud to
surface lightning, and even a remote chance for a waterspout.

&&

.BEACHES...19/1253 AM.

A 12-16 second 12-14 foot west-northwest swell will enter the
region Thursday evening, increasing surf heights to 12-16 feet
across northwest and west facing beach along the Central Coast
through the weekend, peaking Friday. Peak surf will flirt with
the 7ft threshold for west-facing beaches across the Ventura
coastline on Friday, and possibly through the weekend.

High Surf Advisories are in effect from Thursday evening through
Sunday evening along the Central Coast. Beach erosion with
isolated, minor coastal flooding is possible for west-northwest
facing beaches, especially from 8 AM to 1 PM from Friday through
Sunday.

Will let future shifts decide if a Surf Advisory is necessary for
the Ventura Coastline (40% chance).

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...High Surf Advisory in effect from 9 PM Thursday to 9 PM PST
      Sunday for zones 340-346. (See LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/Kittell
AVIATION...Lewis
MARINE...Black/Lewis
BEACHES...Black
SYNOPSIS...MW/RK

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox