405
FXUS66 KLOX 090704
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
1104 PM PST Sat Nov 8 2025

.SYNOPSIS...08/103 AM.

A warming and drying trend will develop through the weekend as
offshore flow establishes beneath building high pressure aloft.
Temperatures above seasonal levels are likely Saturday through
Monday with 80s and 90s being common across most coastal and
valley locations. A storm system will likely move over the region
the latter half of next week and could bring moderate to heavy
rainfall.

&&

.SHORT TERM (SAT-TUE)...08/735 PM.

***UPDATE***

Strong onshore trends in the N/S direction (-5 ydy to only -1.6 mb
today) led to a few surprises. Notably 8 to 10 degrees of cooling
across The Long Beach Area and into the San Gabriel Vly, the
Ventura cst and the SBA south coast. Most of the rest of the area
saw some warming with mid 80s to lower 90s common in most vly
locations (just not the San Gabriel). The onshore trends are also
generating a big surge in marine layer stratus that currently
covers most of the coasts south of Pt Conception with a tendril
extending around the Pt and into western the SBA county coast. The
low clouds are also making a run for the San Gabriel vly. The
marine layer is under a 1000 ft deep and it is likely that there
will be some patchy dense fog as well.

High pressure will build into NV overnight and there will increase
the offshore flow esp from the east. With no really upper level
support this offshore push will not generate advisory levels but
there will be 25 to 30 mph gusts in the usual Santa Clarita Vly to
Camarillo corridor. These winds will chase the low clouds away
from the Malibu to Ventura County area, but low clouds may linger
across the LA South coast and San Gabriel Vly.

The offshore flow will bring a big warm up to most of the area,
esp the areas that were cool today. There is a 25 percent chc that
the Long Beach area will only warm 8 to 12 degrees not 12 to 18.

Updated the forecast to bring more clouds and dense fog to the
overnight period and portions of the morning period.

***From Previous Discussion***

Overall, 12Z models in very good synoptic agreement through the
short term period. At upper levels, ridge builds over the area,
peaking in strength on Monday, before weakening on Tuesday. Near
the surface, weak to moderate offshore flow will prevail through
Monday with weak diurnal flow on Tuesday.

Forecast-wise, main focus in the short term will be offshore winds
and temperatures. With respect to winds, LAX-DAG gradient looks to
peak around -4.0 to -4.5 mb in the morning hours through Monday.
However, upper level wind and thermal support is not too
impressive. So, will anticipate gusty northeast winds in the usual
Santa Ana wind-prone spots of Ventura/LA counties as well as the
Santa Lucia Range. Looking at high resolution ensembles, the
chances for widespread advisory-level winds are about 30-40%. So
at this time, will not issue any wind products with the
expectation of only localized advisory-level winds through
Monday.

As for temperatures, the combination of the offshore surface
gradients and upper level ridge will bring quite the warming trend
to the area through Monday. At this time, based on model data and
TEMP STUDY data, high temperatures on Sunday and Monday look to be
around 10-15 degrees above normal for most areas. Some locations
will approach record highs, but do not anticipate any record
breaking readings. Overnight lows will also be warm, especially
across the foothills and valleys. At this time, the chances for
any heat-related products looks to be about 20-30%. So, will not
issue anything at this time, but if things look to be a bit warmer
during the day and/or night, then this will need to be
reconsidered.

As for clouds, the marine layer stratus looks to "hug" the
immediate this evening and into early Sunday morning before the
developing offshore flow finally obliterates it. So, there will be
some dense fog this evening and into early Sunday morning for the
immediate coastal areas south of Point Conception. Otherwise,
skies will remain clear trough Monday. By Tuesday morning, there
will be the chance of some stratus/fog returning to coastal areas.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...08/103 PM.

Overall for the extended, 12Z models continue to be on the same
synoptic page. There are some differences in the details (timing,
amounts, etc.), but all models indicate a wet and unsettled period
of weather.

On Wednesday, increasing clouds and cooler temperatures can be
expected a storm system approaches the West Coast. Some light warm
frontal precipitation will be possible Wednesday evening, ahead
of the storm.

For Thursday and Friday, both the deterministic GFS/ECMWF and
their respective ensembles indicate a storm will roll across the
area and will bring significant measurable rainfall to the area.
At this time, the ECWMF and its ensembles are slower with the
progression of the system and generate more significant rainfall
the GFS gang. So with the model differences, confidence in the
forecast details remains on the low to moderate side. Current best
forecast is for a widespread 1-3 inch rain event with some chance
of a lesser event or even a heavier event. Additionally, based on
thicknesses, snow level look like they could drop to around 6000
feet and the resorts could see some decent snow accumulations.
However, much like with rain totals, confidence in the exact snow
levels remain on the low to moderate side.

&&

.AVIATION...09/0538Z.

At 0415Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1100 feet deep. The top of
the inversion was 2500 feet with a temperature of 24 C.

High confidence in TAFs KPMD and KWJF.

Moderate confidence in TAFs for KPRB, KSBP, and KSMX. There is a
20-30% chance for VLIFR to LIFR conds at KSBP from 03Z-18Z, and
KPRB from 12Z-17Z. There is a 30% chance that no flight
restrictions develop for KSMX.

Low confidence in TAFs for coasts and valleys of LA and Ventura
Counties. There 15% chance for no clearing at KOXR, KCMA, KSBA,
KSMO, and KLAX. Clearing and arrival times may be off +/- 3
hours. While cigs are present at KSMO, KOXR, KCMA, KBUR and KVNY,
there is a 40% chance vsbys of 1/4SM and cigs VV001.

KLAX...Low confidence in TAF. 20% chance for vsbys less than
1/2SM and cigs less than VV002, between 10Z and 17Z. There is a
20% chance of no daytime clearing on Sunday. No significant east
wind component expected.

KBUR...Low confidence in TAF. 40% chance for VV001-VV002 cigs and
vsbys less than 1/2SM from 07Z-17Z, with the greatest chance
before 13Z.

&&

.MARINE...08/1103 PM.

Seas have dropped just below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels
across all the outer waters. 10-15 knot E to NE winds will be
common early Sunday morning through Monday afternoon nearshore
from Ventura to Point Dume. Local wind gusts could reach 21 kts near
Point Mugu during the early morning hours on Sunday & Monday (30%
chance). Otherwise, relatively mild conditions will continue into
at least Tuesday.

Moderate to high confidence that a storm system will approach the
Coastal Waters as early as Wednesday night, bringing rain and at
least Small Craft Advisory level winds and large steep and choppy
seas to the region, including nearshore. There is a potential for
Gale Force Winds. Confidence is low in timing and magnitude of
impacts.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Dense Fog Advisory in effect until 9 AM PST Sunday for zones
      354-355-362. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Thompson/Rorke
AVIATION...Schoenfeld
MARINE...Lewis/Schoenfeld/Black
SYNOPSIS...Hall

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox