838
FXUS66 KLOX 262200
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
200 PM PST Wed Nov 26 2025

.SYNOPSIS...26/109 PM.

Dry weather will continue at least through the middle of next
week. Well above normal temperatures are expected again on
Thanksgiving Day before cooling develops over the weekend as an
upper low approaches the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT)...26/146 PM.

It was a very warm, offshore Santa Ana day across the area,
especially across coast and valley areas south of Pt Conception.
Highs were well into the 80s in many areas below 1000 feet
elevation. Despite the heat it wasn`t nearly warm enough for any
records as of 1pm. It wasn`t quite as warm along the Central
Coast, although Port San Luis, just northwest of Pismo Beach,
reached at least 80 thanks to downsloping winds off the Irish
Hills and Morro Bay was at least 71. In contrast, only low to mid
60s across the far interior.

The pattern is similar on Thanksgiving Day but offshore flow will
be weakening and perhaps more importantly there will be quite a
bit of mid and high level clouds arriving from the southwest
tonight into tomorrow. These factors make tomorrow`s temperature
forecast very uncertain. Confidence is relatively high that it
will still be above normal in all areas, but the uncertainty of
thickness of the cloud cover and how fast the offshore flow will
weaken make this a very tricky forecast. Highs could be very
similar to today, or as much as 10-12 degrees cooler. Coastal
areas will be the most likely areas to cool due to the increasing
influence of the onshore flow.

By Friday and Saturday the cooling trend for coast and valleys will
be well established bringing highs back to the 60s and 70s area-
wide. Meanwhile, across the far interior areas like interior SLO
and the Antelope Valley, temperatures will be warming to the 70s
Friday but then cooling again Saturday as the next trough drops
into the Great Basin.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...26/200 PM.

Models have come into good agreement that the next upper level
trough arriving along the West coast Saturday will take an inside
track east of the Sierra mountains Sunday and Monday which likely
means no rain for southern California, but cooler than normal
temperatures and possibly some gusty north to northeast winds at
times, especially in the mountains. The models are keeping most of
the stronger winds farther east but can`t rule out some low level
advisory winds in some areas into early next week.

Otherwise, a quiet first half of next week is expected with
temperatures near seasonal norms. With the trough passing to the
east and northerly flow aloft skies should remain mostly free of
marine layer stratus. There are some model solutions showing rain
later next week but models continue to provide a wide range of
possible outcomes, from dry to very wet.

&&

.AVIATION...26/1751Z.

Around 1626Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer. There was a weak
sfc based inversion with a top near 600 ft and a temperature of
21 C.

Overall, high confidence in 18Z TAF Package. There is a 30% chance
for V/LIFR conditions after 14Z Thursday at KPRB. Otherwise, VFR
conditions are expected.

KLAX...High confidence in TAF. VFR conditions with no significant
east wind component expected thru fcst pd.

KBUR...High confidence in TAF. VFR conditions are expected.

&&

.MARINE...26/118 PM.

Conditions will remain relatively mild through Thanksgiving.
However, Localized gusty offshore winds will affect the nearshore
waters from Cayucos to Morro Bay and from Point Mugu to Topanga
Beach at times through Thursday morning. Winds could gusts to 25
kt.

Small Craft Advisory (SCA) winds and/or seas are expected across
the Outer Waters likely starting Friday morning and persisting
at times through the weekend. Periods of Sub-SCA conditions are
probable especially within 10 to 30NM from the shore and during
the morning hours. Chances for SCA conditions within 5NM are low,
but highest on Friday, and near Point Conception.

Conditions are likely to remain below SCA levels for the inner
waters south of Point Conception during the aforementioned period.
Moderate confidence in seas peaking 10 to 12 feet across Outer
Waters and 4 to 6 feet across the Santa Barbara Channel.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...Black
MARINE...Black
SYNOPSIS...MW

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox