481
FXUS66 KLOX 260355
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
855 PM PDT Fri Sep 25 2026

.SYNOPSIS...25/854 PM.

High temperatures will remain above normal through Saturday with
areas of low clouds and fog in the morning. Substantial cooling
is expected Sunday and Monday. Beach impacts from Tropical
Cyclones well south of the region will be possible Monday and
Tuesday in the form of high surf and possible beach erosion. A
significant warming trend is expected Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM (FRI-MON)...25/851 PM.

***UPDATE***

Highs today rose into the 90s over the interior, with 80s to low
90s for the valleys, and cooler 70s at the coasts. Clouds
lingering along the western Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo
County coasts limited warming, where some areas struggled to rise
out of the 60s. Tonight, expecting another return of marine layer
clouds, and the addition of some high clouds that may limit
warming over Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo Counties Saturday.

Current guidance is picking up on an upper level low, forecast to
move through southern California late Sunday into Monday. This
combined with additional moisture from the tropical systems to the
south is creating potential for showers over the area as early as
Sunday morning. Currently, there remains quite a bit of
disagreement in just how much atmospheric moisture we will recieve
from the south, with models producing a wide range of PWAT values
from 0.8 inches up to near 2 inches. Should showers form, amounts
below 0.20 inches appear to be the most likely solution at this
time. Showers favor areas south of Point Conception, and may be
spotty in nature, leaving plenty of areas remaining dry or only
seeing light, brief sprinkles. This system will also lead to
cooler temperatures Sunday and Monday, and plenty of mid to high
clouds for the region.

There remains quite a bit of uncertainty in the forecast Sunday
through early next week due to the two strong hurricanes (Polo and
Odalys) in the eastern Pacific and the uncertainties with their
evolution and respective tracks. While most of the hurricane
models are in pretty good agreement keeping the storms well south
of California, there is a window of opportunity Sunday night into
Monday for some mid level moisture to move into the area and
create a few light showers south of Pt Conception. The biggest
impacts locally are still expected to be confined to the beaches
with increasing swells from the hurricanes, though this is also
quite uncertain pending the ultimate track of both hurricanes.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...25/208 PM.

Pretty big uncertainty in the weather forecast Tue and beyond.
More than 50% of the models are indicating high pressure building
over the state with a fairly substantial warming trend through at
least Thursday. There`s at least a 30-40 percent chance of near
100 degree temperatures in the valleys and similar chances for
Downtown LA and San Luis Obispo reaching 90 or higher. There`s
also a lower but still significant chance of temperatures 5-10
degrees cooler than that. Will have to wait to see how the
hurricanes track before having much confidence in the longer
range.

&&

.AVIATION...26/0141Z.

At 2212Z over KLAX, the marine layer was 1050 ft deep. The top of
the inversion was at 2900 feet with a temperature of 25 Celsius.

High confidence in VFR conditions through at least Saturday for
KPRB, KPMD, and KWJF. For tonight into tomorrow: LIFR/IFR conditions
possible at KSBP, KSMX, and KSBA. IFR/MVFR conditions possible at
KOXR, KCMA, KSMO, KLAX, and KLGB. There is a 20% chance for
short-lived IFR/MVFR cigs at KBUR and KVNY. Moderate confidence
in timing (plus or minus 3 hours).

High confidence in typical winds.

KLAX...There is a 70% chance of OVC008-012 tonight, low-moderate
confidence on timing. High confidence in any east winds staying
under 8 knots.

KBUR...High confidence in VFR conditions through at least 10Z.
There is a 30% chance of IFR ceilings 12-16Z on Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...25/808 PM.

Through this weekend, moderate to high confidence in Small Craft
Advisory (SCA) winds and steep seas affecting the outer waters off
the Central Coast to near Point Conception. The SCAs currently go
through late Sunday night but will likely be extended through
Tuesday night. SCA conds are also forecast over the waters
southward to San Nicolas Island (PZZ676) starting late Saturday
afternoon. Gale force gusts will be possible at times, especially
Monday afternoon and evening across PZZ676. Nearshore along the
Central coast will see SCA conditions through around midnight and
short period seas (7-8 feet at 7 seconds) will likely persist
through late tonight extending the SCA conds there.

Moderate to high confidence in widespread gusty winds Monday into
Tuesday extending into the nearshore waters at times, with the
highest confidence in the Central Coast waters and Santa Barbara
Channel. SCA conds over PZZ655 may be limited to Monday afternoon
and evening.

Southerly swells from Hurricanes Odalys (SSW) and Polo (SSE) will
affect the region this weekend through the middle of next week.
These swells will create larger waves and surf nearshore, which
could impact some harbor entrances, especially Sunday through
Tuesday.

Some dense fog is possible on the Central Coast this weekend.

&&

.BEACHES...25/819 PM.

Southerly swells from Hurricanes Odalys and Polo will affect the
waters this weekend through the middle of next week. This is a
complex scenario with two hurricanes so close in proximity, with
one of them (Odalys) poorly handled by our computer models.
Another complexity is the relatively short window of time that
Polo is far enough west for its waves to have a clear path to
southern California. This means that the swells will have a
narrow window of time to line up with the high tides. Lastly, some
south-facing shores are extra vulnerable because of the lingering
erosion effects from Hurricane Marie earlier this month.

While the surf heights will likely range in the 4 to 7 foot range
for south facing beaches Sunday through Tuesday, there is a plus
or minus in that potential of 2 feet or so due to the complications
mentioned above. High tides will steadily build each day and peak
Monday and Tuesday, likely reaching around 7 feet (MLLW) - which
is higher by almost a foot over astronomical tides due to ongoing
effects of El Nino.

There is a significant concern of Coastal Flooding over vulnerable
south-facing beaches as a result, but the magnitude is still
uncertain. The areas of most concern include Avalon, Long Beach,
Malibu and Santa Barbara. The reasonable worst-case scenario is
for impacts similar to those from Hurricane Marie, but the most
likely outcome is for impacts to be a step less. The one exception
being Avalon on Catalina Island, as the swells from Hurricane
Polo will be more from a southeasterly direction than with Marie,
which they are more exposed to. The same goes for Santa Barbara
Harbor where the risk is less but still present.

South-facing beaches should plan for shallow flooding of seawater
over low lying beach walkways, parking lots, and roads as well as
potential for significant beach erosion. Very localized damage to
structures is also possible in the most vulnerable areas. With
all that stated, there is a potential that impacts will be minimal
if the lower-end surf outcome materializes.

Due to rather high uncertainty, have gone with Beach Hazard
Statements through Wednesday afternoon. This covers the coastline
from Santa Barbara South coast down to LA county, including
Catalina island. A decision to upgrade to Coastal Flood Advisory
will be made Saturday or Sunday. Refer to CFWLOX for more details.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement in effect through Wednesday afternoon
      for zones 87-349-350-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Saturday for
      zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Monday for
      zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM Saturday to 3 AM PDT
      Monday for zone 676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Phillips/MW
AVIATION...Phillips/RK
MARINE...RK/DB/CC
BEACHES...RK/DB/CC
SYNOPSIS...MW/Ciliberti

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox