359
FXUS66 KLOX 280304
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
804 PM PDT Sun Sep 27 2026

.SYNOPSIS...27/530 PM.

Beach impacts from Tropical Cyclones well south of the region are
expected to peak Monday and Tuesday in the form of high surf,
beach erosion, and possible coastal flooding. A significant
warming trend is expected to begin Tuesday with increasing heat
concerns through at least the following weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM (SUN-WED)...27/800 PM.

***UPDATE***

The primary forecast concerns for the short term are the building
surf along south facing beaches and potential for moderate
coastal flooding. The tropical cyclones off the coast of Mexico
are forecast to remain well south of Southern California, but the
southerly swells from these storms will continue to affect the
coastal waters through around midweek.

In addition to waves, some tropical moisture has also made its way
to the area. High temperatures lowered 3 to 6 degrees on average
compared to Saturday, and as much as 6 to 8 degrees in some
areas. In spite of the cooler temperatures, the increased humidity
caused muggy conditions closer to the coast.

Gusty onshore winds are affecting many interior areas this
evening, with gusts generally 25 to 35 mph, but are expected to
decrease later this evening. Winds will likely increase again
Monday afternoon, from the northwest for the Central Coast and
from the southwest to west for Ventura and LA Counties. These
winds will result from an upper low moving southward across the
state. This system has little moisture so the main effect will be
increasing winds as described. Following this low, northerly
gradients will increase some (-3.2 mb from LAX to Bakersfield)
with windy conditions developing over SW Santa Barbara County and
through the I-5 Corridor. By Tuesday morning winds will shift to
the NNE, possibly reaching low-end Advisory levels.

These northerly winds will help to keep any low clouds near or
off of the coast Tuesday and more importantly kick off a warming
trend that will continue, especially away from the coast, through
much of the coming week. High temperatures in the 80s and 90s
will become common away from the immediate coast during this
timeframe.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...27/159 PM.

Above normal confidence in building heat into this weekend and it
will likely remain quite hot for many areas into at least the
middle part of next week. Moderate to high heat risk is possible
with widespread highs in the upper 80s to low 100s in play. A
fairly stagnant pattern with a moderate ridge and prevailing weak
offshore flow (especially in the mornings) looks to be responsible
for the impending heat wave. If current trends hold, this period
of heat looks to be at least advisory worthy for many areas by the
weekend.

National Hurricane Center (NHC) is tracking the newly formed
Tropical Storm Rachel in the Eastern Pacific Ocean. The latest NHC
track brings a Hurricane nearing our swell window by Friday. If
this west to northwest track holds, it could enter our swell
window by early next week. We will continue to monitor, however,
any potential surf or coastal flood impacts would probably occur
after October 4th.

&&

.AVIATION...28/0028Z.

At 2354Z at KLAX, the marine layer was around 900 ft deep. The
top of the inversion was at 1900 feet with a temperature of 24
Celsius.

High confidence in VFR TAFs for KBUR, KVNY, KWJF, and KPMD.

Moderate confidence in IFR conds at KSBP/KSMX with a 20% chance
of brief LIFR conds at KSMX.

Moderate confidence in VFR TAFs for remaining sites. Chance of IFR
to MVFR conds arriving after 10Z at KSBA (15%), KOXR (20%) and
KCMA (20%). 30-40% chance of VFR conds at KSMO, KLAX , and KLGB.

Gusty onshore winds expected after 18Z Mon.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in the 00Z TAF. There is a 30% chance
of MVFR CIGs 09Z-17Z Mon. If cigs form they may bounce between
BKN and SCT frequently. High confidence in no significant east
wind component. Gusty W-SW winds expected after 18Z Mon.

KBUR...High confidence in the 00Z TAF with VFR conds.

&&

.MARINE...27/720 PM.

High confidence in Small Craft Advisory (SCA) winds and steep
seas affecting the outer waters through late least Tuesday night.
Local Gale Force gusts will be possible at times, especially
Monday afternoon and evening across the outer waters south of
Point Conception. There is a 25% chance for a Gale Warning to be
issued for that time period. Nearshore along the Central coast
will see SCA winds and steep seas each afternoon and evening
through Tuesday.

For the nearshore waters south of Point Conception, SCA winds are
expected across the entirety of the Santa Barbara Channel and
portions of the inner waters adjacent to Los Angeles and Orange
Counties on Monday, with moderate chances Tuesday.

Southerly swells from Hurricanes Odalys (SSW) and Polo (SSE) will
continue to affect the region through Tuesday. These swells will
create larger waves and surf nearshore, which could impact some
harbor entrances.

Conditions are likely to improve to below SCA levels Wednesday
into next weekend, except for occasional northwest SCA winds near
Point Conception in the afternoon/evening hours.

&&

.BEACHES...27/803 PM.

Southerly swells from Tropical Storm Odalys and Hurricane Polo
will affect the waters through the middle of this coming week,
with Hurricane Polo likely sending the more impactful swell from
the SSE (160-170 degrees) affecting our coastline Monday and
Tuesday. This swell timing will line up with very high tides
Monday and Tuesday in the late morning hours. Some south- facing
shores are more vulnerable because of the lingering erosion
effects from Hurricane Marie earlier this month.

Surf heights across Los Angeles and Ventura Counties are likely to
peak around 4-7 feet Monday and Tuesday, while the Santa Barbara
south coast should see surf in the 3-5 foot range. High tides
build and peak Monday and Tuesday, likely reaching around 7 feet
(MLLW) in the late morning hours - which is higher by almost a
foot over astronomical tides due to ongoing effects of El Nino.

While this swell is slightly smaller than the swell from Marie,
there is still significant concern of Coastal Flooding over
vulnerable south-facing beaches. The areas of most concern include
Avalon, Long Beach, Malibu, and to a lesser extent Santa Barbara.
The reasonable worst-case scenario is for impacts similar to
those from Hurricane Marie, but the most likely outcome is for
impacts to be a step less. The one exception being Avalon on
Catalina Island, as the swells from Hurricane Polo will be more
from a southeasterly direction than with Marie, which they are
more exposed to. The same goes for Santa Barbara Harbor where the
risk is less but still present.

South-facing beaches should plan for shallow flooding of seawater
over low lying beach walkways, parking lots, and roads as well as
potential for significant beach erosion. Very localized damage to
structures is possible in the most vulnerable areas. Minor tidal
overflow may affect west facing beaches due to very high tides.

Beach Hazards Statements (BHS) are in effect for LA and Ventura
coasts through early Monday morning, and for the Santa Barbara
south coast into Wednesday. Then a Coastal Flood Advisory and
High Surf Advisory are in effect for LA and Ventura Monday and
Tuesday. A BHS may need to be issued for the LA and Ventura coasts
for Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday (lining up with Santa
Barbara) due to the very high tides.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement in effect until 5 AM PDT Monday for
      zones 87-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     Coastal Flood Advisory in effect from 5 AM Monday to 5 PM PDT
      Tuesday for zones 87-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     High Surf Advisory in effect from 5 AM Monday to 5 PM PDT
      Tuesday for zones 87-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     Beach Hazards Statement in effect through Wednesday afternoon
      for zones 349-350. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     Wind Advisory in effect from 6 PM Monday to 6 AM PDT Tuesday
      for zones 349>353-376>378. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Monday for zone
      645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from noon to 11 PM PDT Monday
      for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from noon Monday to midnight
      PDT Monday night for zones 650-655. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for
      zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Munroe/Ciliberti
AVIATION...Ciliberti
MARINE...Lewis/Black
BEACHES...Lewis/Ciliberti
SYNOPSIS...Ciliberti

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox