654
FXUS66 KLOX 030320
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
820 PM PDT Fri Oct 2 2026

.SYNOPSIS...02/526 PM.

A major and long lasting heat wave is expected to persist
through all of next week with dangerously hot temperatures.
Coastal clouds and fog are expected tonight into Saturday
morning, with dense fog likely at times.

&&

.SHORT TERM (FRI-MON)...02/819 PM.

***UPDATE***

Two daily high temperature records were broken today with one
tied, as the heat wave started to set in across the region. Long
Beach and DTLA both reacheed 103 degrees, with Burbank tying it`s
record of 102. Temperatures across the region ranged in the high
70s and 80s across the Central Coast and Ventura Plains, while 90s
to low 100s were recorded across the remainder of the region.
These high temperatures range up to 10 degrees above normal for
the Central Coast/Ventura Plains, while the rest of the area
ranged 10-20 degrees (and up to 25 degrees) above normal for this
time of year.

Overnight lows will also remain warm tonight with 70s common
across the hottest locations from today. Besides some chances for
Marine Layer clouds to make a return to the Central Coast, it`s
looking to be a fairly clear night south of Point Conception.

Not much change in temperatures are expected tomorrow for the
majority of LA and Ventura counties, or really the next few days,
while coastal areas, northern Santa Barbara County, and SLO
County will see some warming tomorrow (thanks to a slight increase
in offshore flow). Extreme Heat Warnings will continue to be in
effect through the weekend and the majority of next week, while
Heat Advisories go into effect for SLO and the northern SBA
Counties starting tomorrow.

Besides some minor tweaks, no major changes were needed for the
evening forecast update.


***From Previous Discussion***

The heat arrived in LA County today and actually exceeded
expectations in and around the Downtown area where highs reached
102 as of 12:50pm, which not only matched the expected forecast
for Saturday, but also broke the daily record. And 102 may not be
the end of today`s warm up there. The same exact situation
happened at LGB as well. Outside of the LA Metro area,
temperatures were about as expected with Woodland Hills at 103 and
likely heading to a high around 105-107 so and Burbank in the
100-102 range.

For most LA areas today was the primary heating day with just
minor fluctuations through next week, meaning a very hot next
several days but minimal day to day changes. Coastal areas will
likely get a little bump up Saturday with a very slight increase
in offshore influence. For the rest of the 4 county area expecting
5-15 degrees of additional warming Saturday. After that, like LA
County just small daily adjustments but overall very little
change in this hot pattern. Heat advisories will go into effect
for SLO and northern Santa Barbara Counties Saturday and Sunday.
Based on the latest forecast trends that advisory will likely need
to be extended at least another day or two.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...02/145 PM.

Monday into the rest of the week will feel a lot like this coming
weekend, with ongoing offshore winds and persistent high
pressure. Will likely see some fluctuations in temperatures as the
offshore gradient weakens a bit early in the week, though there
are still some model solutions indicating a little more upper
level northeast wind support and subsequently even hotter
temperatures around Wednesday into Friday, leading to breaking
daily high temperature records. Further out, models indicate
tropical moisture along with an upper level trough could lead to
cooling temperatures by the following weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...03/0024Z.

At 2355Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer. There was a surface
based inversion with a top at 900 ft and a temperature of 32 C.

High confidence in VFR TAFs for all sites away from the coast, and
moderate to high confidence in LIFR/VLIFR conds at KSMX
overnight. Low to moderate confidence in VFR conds for the
remaining sites with a 30-40% chance of low clouds occuring
overnight. LIFR/IFR conds are likely if clouds do occur. No wind
issues expected.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in VFR conds for the 00Z TAF. There is
a 20% chance of low clouds overnight, with a 30% chance of IFR
VSBY around 3SM. Good confidence that any east wind component
remains below 8 kts.

KBUR...High confidence in the VFR 00Z TAF. No wind issues expected.

&&

.MARINE...02/737 PM.

Generally quiet conditions expected across the coastal waters
through the forecast period. Localized Small Craft Advisory (SCA)
gusts may occur each afternoon and evening between Point
Conception and San Nicolas Island, off the coast of Point Dume,
and across the San Pedro Channel.

&&

.BEACHES...02/807 PM.

Quiet conditions are expected through the weekend, aside from the
heat. Meanwhile, another hurricane (Rachel) will likely bring a
larger- than- Polo southerly swell to southern California for
much of the coming work week. The window of most concern is
Tuesday through Friday. Elevated surf up to 5-6 ft is likely with
a lower chance of high surf 7ft or higher across exposed south
facing beaches. High tides of 6.5-7.0 ft are expected. Unlike
previous events, morning and evening tides will be similar in
height. Initially, the swell will have a more SE direction
(150-160) targeting areas like Long Beach Tuesday and Wednesday.
As Rachel moves westward, the swell direction will become more
southerly (170-190) Thursday and Friday targeting areas like Zuma.
There is a high risk for Beach Hazard Statements and a moderate
risk for Coastal Flood Advisories and High Surf Advisories along
the LA/VTA coastline. Stay tuned for future updates.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Extreme Heat Warning in effect until 8 PM PDT Thursday for
      zones 38-87-88-349>358-362-366>375-548-550. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Heat Advisory in effect from 10 AM Saturday to 8 PM PDT
      Sunday for zones 341>345-347-348. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/KL
AVIATION...Ciliberti
MARINE...Black/Ciliberti
BEACHES...Black/Ciliberti
SYNOPSIS...Phillips/MW/Ciliberti

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox