372
FXUS66 KLOX 222209
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
209 PM PST Sat Nov 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...22/113 PM.

Dry conditions are expected through the end of next week with
temperatures rising to near to slightly above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-TUE)...22/141 PM.

Santa Ana winds are beginning to diminish this afternoon in
typical style. Wind advisories have been discontinued for coastal
areas but have been extended to 5pm for the inland portions.
Otherwise, a very quiet weather pattern now through Thanksgiving
week as a high pressure ridge builds into the region. Temperatures
will be trending in different directions depending on proximity to
the coast. Coastal areas, or areas within 15 or so miles from the
coast, will be trending cooler through Monday as onshore flow
returns. And by Monday (if not as early as Sunday) some coastal
areas will see a return to low clouds and fog. For the valleys
and other interior areas temperatures will be similar or slightly
warmer.

Starting Tuesday following the passage of a weak upper level
trough into the northern portion of the Great Basin, pressure
gradients will shift back offshore. There is little to no support
aloft for any gusty winds but the diminished onshore push will
along with higher than normal heights will result in a warming
trend.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...22/202 PM.

Temperatures will continue to trend upward through Thanksgiving
day as light to moderate offshore flow continues. At this time the
chances for strong Santa Ana winds are very low as there is little
upper support. And in fact the current ensembles are indicating
below advisory level winds at most next week. So like so many
Thanksgivings in southern California, the most likely outcome is a
mild to warm day across the area with clear skies, unlimited
visibilities, and lots of turkey.

Going into next weekend models continue trend farther inland with
the next upper level trough. What at one point looked like another
strong storm for California has turned much drier as the models
have shifted the storm`s trajectory farther east. There are still
a few ensemble solutions hanging onto rain chances but each run
seems to trend drier.

&&

.AVIATION...22/1847Z.

At 1802Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer. There was a weak
surface based inversion to 300 ft with a max temperature of 18 C.

Overall, good confidence in TAF package. There is a 40% chc of no
LIFR conditions after 09Z Sun at KPRB. Winds speeds may be off by
around 5 kts during peak gusts at KSMX, KOXR, KCMA, KBUR, KVNY,
KPMD, and KWJF.

Lgt-Mdt turbc and LLWS possible over and near to hier trrn.

KLAX...Good confidence in TAF. There is 20% chance of east winds
of 6-8 kts after 09Z Sun.

KBUR...Good confidence in cig/vis portion of TAF. Wind speed and
direction may change randomly through 22Z. Moderate confidence in
winds thereafter. Winds speeds may be off by around 5 kts during
peak gusts.

&&

.MARINE...22/209 PM.

Across the Outer Waters, Small Craft Advisory (SCA) seas with
wind gusts approaching SCA levels at times (especially S of pt.
Conception) is expected through the weekend. SCA conditions may
linger through mid-week for waters 30NM from shore. Moderate
chances for a combination of SCA winds and seas to return next
weekend.

Inside the California Bight, northerly will continue to impact
nearshore from Ventura to Malibu through this afternoon, with
winds reaching Santa Cruz and Anacapa islands at times. Conditions
will improve Saturday evening into next week.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...High Surf Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Monday for zones
      340-346. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     High Surf Advisory in effect until 9 AM PST Sunday for zone
      354. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     Wind Advisory now in effect until 5 PM PST this afternoon for
      zones 358-369-371-374-375. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Monday for
      zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...Schoenfeld
MARINE...Black/Schoenfeld
SYNOPSIS...MW

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox