005
FXUS66 KLOX 142042
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
142 PM PDT Mon Jul 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...14/113 PM.

Night through morning low clouds and patchy fog continue for
coasts and most valleys through most of this week. Today will be
the warmest day of the next seven. A cooling trend will develop
Tuesday and continue through the middle of the week when valley
highs are only expected to be in the 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-THU)...14/132 PM.

Mostly low impact weather across the area the next several days.
Interior areas will be feeling much cooler as increasing onshore
flow and a deepening marine layer usher in cooler air off the
ocean. Latest forecast soundings indicate a marine layer depth
around 2000-2500 feet tonight in the LA Basin, then increasing
further to around 3000 feet by Wednesday and Thursday mornings.
Interior areas will drop a good 10 degrees from today`s highs as
soon as Tuesday with slower cooling the rest of the week. Most
coastal valleys will top out in the low to mid 80s which is 5-10
degrees below normal, with daily morning low clouds and fog.

The only uncertainty in the forecast is with the potential for
some monsoon showers by around Thursday. Ensemble solutions and
deterministic runs have both been trending less favorable for
monsoon conditions across southwest California. Thursday would be
the best chance but moisture is pretty minimal despite a
moderately favorable upper level pattern from the southeast. Will
continue to monitor but for now the forecast is only indicating
around a 10 percent change of showers and storms across the eastern
LA County mountains and AV.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...14/140 PM.

Once again a mostly low impact forecast weather pattern through
early next week. Friday is another day of possible monsoon
moisture but LA County remains on the far western periphery of it
so chances for any mountain/AV showers or storms remains at
around 10%.

Otherwise, a slow warming trend due to weakening onshore flow will
begin Friday with 1-3 degrees of warming each day through about
Sunday then leveling off there through early next week with
temperatures within a few degrees of normal. The marine layer will
start to shrink away from the valleys but remain near the coast
through the period where the warming trend will be much more
gradual.

&&

.AVIATION...14/1636Z.

At 1615Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1500 feet deep. The top of
the inversion was at 4400 feet with a max temperature of 27 C.

For 18Z TAF package, high confidence in KPMD and KWJF.

For coastal and coastal valley sites, moderate confidence in 18Z
TAFs. Timing of flight category changes could be +/- 2 hours of
current forecasts. There is a 30% chance that SCT conditions will
not develop this afternoon at KSMO and KLAX.

There is a 20% chance of LIFR conditions at KPRB 12Z-16z.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in 18Z TAF. Timing of flight category
changes could be +/- 2 hours of current forecast. There is a 30%
chance that SCT conditions do not develop this afternoon. No
significant easterly wind component is expected.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in 18Z TAF. Timing of return of
CIG/VSBY restrictions could be +/- 2 hours of current forecast.

&&

.MARINE...14/1250 PM.

Overall, tonight through Saturday winds and seas are expected to
remain below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels across all the
coastal waters. From Friday night through Saturday, there is a 20%
chance of SCA level winds around Point Conception.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...RAT
MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...MW

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox