193
FXUS66 KLOX 130333
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
833 PM PDT Wed Aug 12 2026

.SYNOPSIS...12/1031 AM.

A cooling trend will continue through Thursday, with cooler than
normal temperatures expected across the area into the weekend.
There is a chance of mountain and occasional lower elevation
convection through at least tonight and potentially lingering
into Thursday morning. More robust marine layer cloud coverage is
likely this week, however, higher clouds may disrupt the formation
of the marine layer at times.

&&

.SHORT TERM (WED-SAT)...12/256 PM.

Main story for the forecast today is shower and thunderstorm
chances. An upper level trough is in the process of building into
the West Coast, and will remain over the region through at least
Friday. Additionally, a small vorticity lobe about 200 miles west
of the Central Coast is slowly moving northwestward and expected
to move onshore this evening through tomorrow.

Monsoon moisture moving across the region, paired with the vort
lobe and trough, is resulting in thunderstorm/shower chances
through Saturday, with highest chances today. So far, only three
small showers have popped up over the eastern San Gabriel
Mountains, and clouds associated with the vort lobe last produced
any lightning around 7 or 8 am this morning. While it is less
active than it was this time yesterday, there is a 30-50% chance
for the northern Ventura mountains and eastern San Gabriel
Mountains, a 15-30% chance for San Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara
Counties, and up to a 10% chance for the remainder of the areas.
These thunderstorm/shower chances may linger overnight into
Thursday afternoon. On Thursday the SW flow from the trough will
bring enough drying to lower the convective threat to 5-10% for
Thursday and Friday, and down to 5% on Saturday.

As for temperatures, increased cloud cover, paired with increased
onshore flow to both the north an east, along lowering 500mb
heights will allow several degrees of cooling for the majority of
the region today and tomorrow. High temperatures today will tap
out in the 60s and 70s near the coast and 80s to mid 90s away from
the coast. Temperatures on Thursday will lower into the 80s for
areas away from the coast, with similar temperatures expected for
Friday. These temperatures will be below up to 5 degrees below
normal for this time of year near the coasts, and 5-12 degrees
below normal for areas away from the coast.

Marine layer clouds will reform for areas south of Point
Conception tonight into tomorrow, but less certainty in areas
north of Point Conception due to the vort lobe moving through that
may disrupt the formation of the marine layer.  More confidence
in the marine layer reforming on Thursday night into Friday
morning thanks to the onshore push, and marine layer clouds may
even push as far as into the Santa Clarita Valley and south
Salinas Valley Friday morning. Clearing will be slower than normal
and some beaches may only see limited clearing.

The onshore push to the east will generate gusty winds across the
Antelope Valley and Foothills. There will be a 20-30 percent
chance of low end wind advisories each afternoon.

On Saturday, onshore flow will start to weaken with 500 mb heights
increasing slightly again, resulting in the marine layer clouds
becoming less expansive. A warming and drying trend will start
up, with temperatures warming up by a few degrees, pushing valleys
back into the 80s to low 90s.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...12/301 PM.

Good agreement with all of the medium range models. The trough
will be pushed to the west by a powerful upper high that spans
most of the southern portion of the CONUS. 500mb heights will
climb to 592 dam, with dry SW flow aloft. At the surface, Onshore
flow will weaken, with the push to the east weakening slightly,
but the push to the north weakening substantially. Surface flow
might might even be offshore by Tuesday or Wednesday.

The weather will be benign through the period. There will be
plenty of night through morning low clouds and fog across the
coasts. Due to the rising heights, the marine layer will shrink
to under a 1000 ft which should keep it out of the valleys.
Skies, otherwise, will be mostly clear. The weakening onshore flow
to the north will also lessen the amount of coastal low clouds
early next week, especially if the offshore flow develops.

Gusty but still sub-advisory levels winds will continue across
the Antelope Valley.

Temperatures will continue to warm each day, though still remain
below normal through the extended.

&&

.AVIATION...13/0231Z.

At 2347Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1200 feet deep. The top of
the inversion was near 1900 feet with a temperature of 21 C.

High confidence in TAFs for desert airfields (KPMD & KWJF).

Moderate to low confidence in remaining TAFs. Timing of
prevailing groups may be off +/- 2 hours. Low confidence in
clearing times. Cigs may linger later into the day, especially for
KSMX and northward.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. Arrival and clearing of MVFR
CIGs (012-018) may be off +/- 2 hours. No significant east wind
component expected.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. Cigs may arrive 1-2 hrs later
than forecast and clear 1-2 hrs earlier than forecast. No wind
issues expected.

&&

.MARINE...12/815 AM.

High confidence that conditions will remain below Small Craft
Advisory (SCA) criteria across all coastal waters through Friday
morning. Low to moderate chances for SCA winds across favored
areas south of Point Conception this weekend. Increasing chances
across all coastal waters heading into next week.

There is a slight chance of a shower or a thunderstorm around
and north of Point Conception later this afternoon thru early
Thursday morning.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Coastal Flood Advisory in effect until midnight PDT tonight
      for zones 349-350-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KL/KL/Rorke
AVIATION...Phillips
MARINE...Black
SYNOPSIS...Lewis/Phillips

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox