752
FXUS66 KLOX 030604
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
1004 PM PST Mon Nov 2 2026

.SYNOPSIS...02/957 PM.

There is a small chance of very light rain for the Central Coast
Tuesday. Otherwise mostly dry conditions with a general warming
trend and periods of offshore winds expected through the week.
Warmest and windiest conditions likely Friday-Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM (MON-THU)...02/843 PM.

***UPDATE***

Mostly sunny skies and weaker winds, along with slowly building
high pressure allowed temperatures to warm 5-10 degrees from
yesterday`s highs. Today highs generally ranged from near normal
to 8 degrees above normal. May need wind advisories for the
northerly Santa Barbara south coast Tuesday night as the system
moves through. Other breezy locations will be many of the
interior mountains from the I-5 Corridor. These winds are forecast
to become northeast Wednesday, leading to the strongest winds
focusing over the Santa Lucia Mountains, along with western
portions of the Santa Ynez Range. These areas may also need wind
advisories, but will hold off on issuing to see if guidance sticks
to this solution.

This low pressure system appears to sweep through the area
quickly, bringing light rain to the Central Coast, clouds, and
cooler temperatures. High temperatures may need to be cooled
somewhat for Tuesday, but expecting a warming trend starting
Wednesday as offshore winds become the dominant feature.

***From Previous Discussion***

Another cool night is on tap, although not quite as cool as last
night. Then tomorrow features a slight chance to a chance of very
light rain across the Central Coast, with highest chances in far
northwest SLO County. Otherwise we are expecting dry conditions
with generally slightly below normal high temperatures over the
next few days. The upper low passing to our north and its decaying
cold front responsible for the light rain chances across the
Central Coast will bring partly to mostly cloudy skies to the
region and slight cooling to much of the area tomorrow (especially
up north) along with some breezy onshore winds at the coasts.

Weak to locally moderate north to northeast flow will be common
each day across the interior and southern Santa Barbara starting
Tuesday night. This will help temperatures gradually warm through
the week, with high temperatures inching closer to early November
averages by Thursday. Winds will likely remain below advisory
levels, but some isolated areas may gust to 45 mph. Therefore
widespread wind advisories are unlikely, but there is a low
chance for issuances for the windiest areas.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...02/119 PM.

The long term period will be characterized by ridging and more
expansive Santa Ana Winds, bringing warm, dry, and windy
conditions to the region. Winds will likely descend to coastal
areas such as the Ventura County coastal plain and Malibu. While
these winds will likely reach more locations, wind speeds are
still favored to remain just a touch below advisory levels across
most areas. However, if upper level support increases some,
surface level winds could reach advisory levels.

Temperatures will increase under the influence of the downslope
warming effect of the Santa Ana Winds, especially at the coasts.
At this point there is an increasing risk of moderate heat related
illnesses for coastal areas Saturday and Sunday when warmest
temperatures are expected, thus Heat Advisories may be needed.

&&

.AVIATION...03/0556Z.

At 0512Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer. There was an
elevated inversion between 6000 feet and 8000 feet. The top of
this inversion had a temperature of 14 degrees C.

Moderate confidence in TAFs for KSMX/KSBP/KPRB with 25% chance of
low MVFR cigs 12Z-18Z and 20% of -DZ or -SHRA from 18Z to 24Z.

High confidence in remaining TAFs.

KLAX...High confidence in TAF. High confidence that any east wind
component will remain AOB 6Kt.

KBUR...High confidence in TAF.

&&

.MARINE...02/928 PM.

High confidence in Small Craft Advisory (SCA) west winds quickly
forming Tuesday afternoon over most if not all waters south of
Point Conception, including the nearshore waters of the Santa
Barbara Channel and Santa Monica Bay. Short period choppy seas
will also form. High confidence in SCA NW to N winds shifting on
Wednesday to the more traditional areas from the Central Coast to
San Nicolas Island and will continue through Thursday. Short
period choppy seas should be expected most areas through Thursday
as a result.

There is a moderate risk for low-end SCA level NE winds forming
this weekend from Ventura through Santa Monica.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 1 PM Tuesday to 4 AM PST
      Wednesday for zones 650-655. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from 8 AM Wednesday to 8 AM
      PST Thursday for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from 1 PM Tuesday to 8 AM PST
      Thursday for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Phillips/Lewis
AVIATION...Rorke
MARINE...RK
SYNOPSIS...Lewis

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox