142
FXUS66 KLOX 062306
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
306 PM PST Sat Dec 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...06/154 PM.

Benign weather will continue through the weekend with a low
chance of morning low clouds and fog along the Los Angeles coast.
A significant warming trend will begin Sunday with temperatures
well above normal Monday through next Friday, peaking Tuesday
through Thursday. Offshore winds will increase Sunday and Monday
persisting through much of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-TUE)...06/154 PM.

Pretty quiet weather this afternoon with clear skies and no
marine layer present. Surface observations show a few gusty
ridgetops across the Santa Lucia and La Panza ranges (20-30 mph).
Winds will increase later this afternoon and evening across these
locations, but should remain below advisory levels. There is a
low chance for a return of a shallow marine layer to the LA coast
tonight into Sunday morning.

Maximum Temps will warm a few to several degrees (esp. across
coasts & valleys) through Monday. By Monday, most areas will be 8
to 12 degrees above normal. Moderate SMX-BFL offshore gradients
will result in gusty sub- advisory winds across the Santa Lucia
and La Panza ranges through Monday. ECMWF guidance suggests LAX-
DAG gradients peak around -4 mb Monday afternoon. The Santa Susana
mountains will likely have the best chance for a borderline wind
advisory as guidance currently depicts.

Deterministic cross-sections indicate that rising heights from
the ridge building in from west combined with established offshore
gradients should be sufficient enough to keep the marine layer
well offshore by Monday afternoon.

The GFS and EC are in general agreement with well above normal
temperatures peaking Tuesday through Thursday. Max Temps will
warm another 2 to 4 degrees on average from Monday.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...06/154 PM.

The GFS and EC are in general agreement on very warm conditions
with steady offshore flow with moderate strength at times. In
combination with 500mb heights varying between 583mb and 586mb,
it is expected that the marine layer will stay well offshore.
These heights are about 15 dam higher than the normal value of
571.

From Tuesday thru Thursday, max temperatures are generally
expected to be 5-10 degrees above normal for immediate coastline,
10-15 degrees for inland coasts & valleys, and 15-18 locally 20
degrees across interior valley and mountain locations. Translates
into around 70 degrees for immediate coastline, mid 70s to low 80s
inland coasts, mid 80s for favored locations such as San Fernando,
Santa Clarita, Ojai, and Santa Ynez valley floors. Interior mtn
locations above 5,000 ft may struggle getting out of the 60s. The
ensemble suites indicate there might be slight cooling on Friday
but temperatures should remain well above normal. We will have a
better idea of temps over the next few days as we get closer.

There may be some cooling next weekend but max temps are expected
to remain well above normal especially across the interior. There
may be a return shallow marine layer influence across the coastal
sections but guidance is in disagreement with how quickly the
offshore gradients weaken and how much 500mb heights fall.

&&

.AVIATION...06/2304Z.

At 2210Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer nor an inversion.

Overall, moderate to high confidence in 00Z TAF package. Through
this evening, high confidence in CAVU conditions for all sites.
For late tonight/Sunday morning, there is a 30% chance of CIG/VSBY
restrictions at KLAX and KLGB.

KLAX...Overall, moderate to high confidence in 00Z TAF. Through
this evening, high confidence in CAVU conditions. From 09Z-16Z,
there is a 30% chance of LIFR/VLIFR conditions. No significant
easterly wind component is expected through forecast period.

KBUR...High confidence in 00Z TAF with CAVU conditions expected.

&&

.MARINE...06/154 PM.

For the waters southwest through northwest of the Channel Islands
beyond 10 NM offshore of the Central Coast, low-end Small Craft
Advisory conditions expected at times through much of next week,
especially across the north and western portions of PZZ670/673
during the afternoon and evening hours.

Inside the southern California bight, high chance of winds and
seas remaining below SCA levels through Monday night. Moderate
chance of offshore winds from Ventura through Santa Monica through
Tuesday afternoon. Guidance suggests winds and seas should remain
below SCA levels thereafter through the work week.

There is a low chance of dense fog over the coastal waters
adjacent to Los Angeles and Orange Counties tonight through
tomorrow morning. Confidence remains low on timing and coverage.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Monday for
      zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Black
AVIATION...Black
MARINE...Black
SYNOPSIS...Black

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox