311
FXUS66 KLOX 301811
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
1011 AM PST Sun Nov 30 2025

.SYNOPSIS...30/245 AM.

A cooling trend will continue through the weekend as onshore flow
returns. Warming is expected Monday as offshore flow returns with
gusty Santa Ana winds. A cooling trend will develop Tuesday and
Wednesday as a storm system approaches the region. There is a
chance of rain Wednesday through Thursday, mainly south of Point
of Conception.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-TUE)...30/823 AM.

***UPDATE***

Latest satellite and surface observations indicate some stratus
and fog across the coastal plain south of Point Conception with a
thin veil of high clouds drifting overhead of the entire area.
Current sounding data indicates marine inversion ranging in depth
from around 1000 feet north of Point Conception to around 2000
feet south. No significant winds are currently observed.

Forecast-wise for the immediate short term, no significant issues
are expected. Current stratus/fog should dissipate by late morning
with mostly sunny/partly cloudy skies for all areas this afternoon
with high clouds drifting overhead. Morning TEMP STUDY data
indicates a bit cooler boundary layer with a touch stronger
onshore pressure gradients. So, most areas should be a few degrees
cooler than Saturday. As for winds, the weak onshore flow this
afternoon will generate some southwesterly winds across interior
sections, but speeds will remain well below advisory levels.

Overall, current forecast has good handle on the immediate short
term. So, no significant updates are anticipated. For the
afternoon forecast suite, attention turns to weak-moderate Santa
Ana winds on Monday and some light shower potential in the
Wednesday to Thursday time frame.

***From Previous Discussion***

Marine layer coverage has been spotty this morning but is starting
to fill in along the Central Coast with areas of dense fog.
Gradients continue to trend onshore but that will be reversing
tonight into Monday as another inside slider drops out of Canada
and into the Great Basin. In the meantime, another cool day across
the area with highs mainly in the 60s.

Another round of Santa Ana winds are expected Monday as high
pressure rebuilds over the Great Basin, forcing a cool and dense air
mass to settle in over southern California with gradients turning
offshore somewhere between 5 and 6mb. Interior areas like the
Antelope Valley and inland SLO County will notice a significant
drop in temperatures with highs only in the 50s. On the ocean side
of the mountains as that dense air descends and compresses it will
warm up but not as warm as the last event when highs were in the
80s. Instead highs on Monday will mostly be in the mid 60s to
lower 70s with gusty northeast winds across portions of LA/Ventura
Counties. With stronger upper support aloft and more of an
easterly component this event will likely generate advisory level
winds across the Santa Clarita Valley and the surrounding
mountains as well as much of southern Ventura County and the
northern San Fernando Valley.

The Santa Anas will be a one off as gradients quick shift back to
onshore Tuesday and yet another trough drops south east of the
Sierra mountains. Temperatures will cool a few degrees across
coast and valleys but warm a few degrees across the interior.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...30/346 AM.

This next trough, while still an inside slider, does make a closer
approach through southern California and it may be just enough to
drop a little rain over mainly LA County and possibly extreme
eastern Ventura County. Any rain amounts will be under a quarter
inch, and in many cases less than a tenth. Highs will mostly be in
the lower 60s, except 40s and 50s across the interior. Could get a
dusting of snow over the higher elevations above 6000 feet.

Thursday now looks dry as models have converged on Wednesday as
the only chance for rain during the week. Temperatures will warm
slightly but still be slightly below normal. Some breezy west to
northwest winds expected in the afternoon especially near the
coast.

Dry and a few degrees warmer Fri/Sat under clear skies and light
winds.

&&

.AVIATION...30/1809Z.

At 1709Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 2100 ft deep. The top of
the inversion was at 2600 ft with a temperature of 14 C.

High confidence in TAFs for desert airfields (KPMD & KWJF)

Low to moderate confidence in remaining TAFs. Timing of CIG/VSBY
restrictions may be off by +/- 3 hrs and flight categories by one
or two. There is a 30% chance for LIFR conditions at KPRB from
10Z to 16Z Mon. High uncertainty in development of LIFR CIGs at
KSBP and how long they will last if realized.

LLWS and turbulence is possible over and near mountainous terrain
across Ventura and LA Counties after 06Z Monday.

KLAX...Low to moderate confidence in 18Z TAF. MVFR CIGs 015-025
with MVFR VSBYs 4-5SM at times are likely through 12Z-15Z Monday.
Good confidence in VFR conditions by 18Z Monday. No significant
east wind component expected.

KBUR...Low to moderate confidence in 18Z TAF. CIGs should clear
around 19Z Sun. MVFR conditions are possible from 03Z to 06Z and
then could fall to IFR or even LIFR through 12Z Mon (+/- 2 hrs).
Low confidence from 03Z to 12Z Monday.

&&

.MARINE...30/842 AM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current
forecast. A Small Craft Advisory has been issued for PZZ670/673
beginning this afternoon through late tonight. From Monday
afternoon through Tuesday afternoon, high confidence in winds and
seas remaining below SCA levels. For Wednesday, there is a 20-30%
chance of SCA level winds. On Thursday, high confidence in winds
and seas remaining below SCA levels.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, high confidence in
current forecast. Winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA
levels through Thursday.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast, except low to moderate confidence
for Monday morning through Tuesday morning. Today thru Thursday,
winds and seas are expected to generally remain below SCA levels.
The only exception will be on Monday with a 60% chance of SCA
level Santa Ana/northeast winds from Ventura south to Santa Monica
and possibly extend out past Anacapa Island. These winds, should
they extend down to the coast, would peak Monday morning, then may
drop below advisory levels during the afternoon for a few hours,
before increasing back up to advisory levels Monday evening into
late night.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3
      AM PST Monday for zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/Thompson
AVIATION...Black
MARINE...Lund/Black
SYNOPSIS...MW

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox