369
FXUS66 KLOX 251741
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
941 AM PST Tue Nov 25 2025

Updated Aviation Section

.SYNOPSIS...25/1217 AM.

Dry conditions are expected through at least Friday with
above normal temperatures and gusty Santa Ana winds at times
from Tuesday through Thursday. A cooling trend will develop next
weekend with areas of gusty north winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-THU)...25/903 AM.

***UPDATE***

No changes in thinking from below. We may issue another Frost
Advisory for the same interior areas again tonight, potentially
to include the Salinas Valley.

There`s about a 10 percent chance that winds come in strong
enough for a low end Wind Advisory Wednesday morning to early
afternoon.

Given significant holiday travel that day, be prepared
for occasional moderate crosswinds when driving, especially if
driving a higher profile vehicle on elevated roadways.

Dry weather is expected to prevail through the middle of next week
when unsettled weather may return.

***From Previous Discussion***

Not much going on in the short term. At the upper levels, weak
ridging will continue over the area with hgts ranging from 580 to
582 dam. At the sfc offshore flow will will continue through the
period peaking Wednesday.

There will not be much in the way of clouds today. There will be
some patchy low clouds across the LA cst and quite a few clouds in
the interior SLO vly including the Paso Robles area. The stronger
offshore flow will keep the coasts and vlys clear Wednesday, but
the interior of SLO county may well be cloudy again as the
offshore flow pushes low clouds into the area from the San Joaquin
Vly. Thanksgiving looks cloudy as a grip of mid and high level
clouds is forecast to move overhead.

As for winds, there is no upper of thermal support so any winds
will have to totally rely on the sfc gradients. There will be some
gusty north winds today but with only isolated advisory level
gust. The winds will turn NE Wednesday morning and a weak Santa
Ana wind event will ensue. The offshore gradients will both be
around 5 mb. Again, with no upper support it is unlikely that
there will be a need for advisories. Weakening offshore flow on
Thanksgiving will likely only produce 15 to 25 mph canyon winds in
the morning.

The downsloping offshore flow will bring 4 to 8 degrees of warming
to the csts/vlys today. The interior will cool a few degrees as
cooler air form the interior advects in. Max temps today will be
about 6 degrees over normal across the csts/vlys with plenty of
readings in the 70s. Hgts and offshore flow peak Wednesday and
this should lead to 2 to 4 degrees of additional warming. This
will push most max temps into the mid 70s to lower 80s. The
decrease in offshore flow on Thursday along with lowering hgts and
the increase in cloud cover will result in 2 to 4 locally 6
degrees of cooling. Despite the cooling most max temps will end
up 2 to 4 degrees above normal.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...25/311 AM.

Weak troffing sets up over the area on Friday. The high clouds
will move off to the east and it will be a mostly sunny day. The
offshore flow weakens to near neutral and this will bring 3 to 6
degrees of cooling to the csts and vlys despite the added
sunshine. The added sunshine will bring several degrees of warming
to

While there is still some uncertainty with the weekend forecast
all mdls are trending drier. At this point it looks like there
will be only a 20 percent chc of rain as almost all of the
ensembles are showing more of dry inside track of the system. Even
if rain does occur rainfall rates/totals will be very low, since
the system originated from the interior and has no moisture
source. No doubt about the cooling trend as increased clouds,
lowering hgts and a return to onshore flow all gang up to lower
max temps by 3 to 6 degrees each day. By Sunday max temps will
mostly be in the lower to mid 60s across the csts/vlys.

Monday looks dry and windy as north flow sets up behind the
departing low. At the same time moderate offshore flow from the
north will develop. Increasing hgts and a return to sunny skies
will bring a 2 to 4 degree warm up. Max temps will still be 3 to 6
degrees blo normal.

&&

.AVIATION...25/1739Z.

Around 1714Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer. The top of the
sfc- based inversion was at 2000 ft with a temperature of 19 C.

High confidence in VFR conds for all sites except KPRB, where
there is only a 30% chance for VFR conds. Timing of cigs at KPRB
may be off +/- 2 hours, and minimum flight cat off by 1 cat. For
LA county coastal sites, less than 10% chance for VLIFR- LIFR
conds from 07Z-17Z. Intermitent periods of 3-5SM vsbys are also
possible at coastal and valley site.

KLAX...High confidence in VFR TAF. Less than 10% chance for
OVC002-004 and vsbys 1/2SM-2SM vsbys 07Z-17Z. Good confidence
that any east wind component will be under 8kt.

KBUR...High confidence in TAF. 20% chance for east to northeast
winds 5-10 kts to surface 03Z-18Z.

&&

.MARINE...25/830 AM.

Conditions will continue to improve well below Small Craft
Advisory (SCA) criteria through today, and will remain relatively
mild through Thanksgiving. There is a moderate chance of north-
northeast winds gusting 20-30 knots nearshore from Ventura to
Santa Monica tonight through Thursday, with strongest winds
expected tonight into Wednesday afternoon. Localized wind gusts to
25 knots are possible nearshore along the Central coast, with
best chances from Cayucos south to Morro Bay each night through
morning this week.

Winds and seas will increase to SCA levels once again across the
Outer Waters as early as Thursday night or Friday. Nearshore along
the Central Coast and across the Santa Barbara Channel, winds
will increase Saturday afternoon and night, to just below SCA
levels.

There is quite a bit of uncertainty for this weekend, but
there is a moderate to high chance of widespread SCA conditions,
including nearshore. Seas will likely increase to around 10 to 12
feet across the outer waters, and 4 to 6 feet inside the Southern
California Bight. There is a low chance of widespread Gale Force
Winds this weekend.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Rorke
AVIATION...Lewis
MARINE...Lewis/Lund
SYNOPSIS...MW

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox