845
FXUS66 KLOX 290926
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
226 AM PDT Fri Aug 29 2025

.SYNOPSIS...28/807 PM.

The remnants of Tropical Storm Juliette will drift over the
region through this evening but no rain is expected locally. A
warming trend will resume Friday and through the weekend, leading
to slightly above normal temperatures that will likely linger
into next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-SUN)...28/829 PM.

***UPDATE***

Current satellite and radar to our south and east are quieting
down this evening, as the fringes of once Tropical Storm Juliette
stream to the east. While we did get a lot of clouds today, the
bulk of the moisture and all of the light rain stayed well to the
east of Los Angeles County through the day. As a result, today
was a fairly benign day and will remain quiet through tonight.
Tomorrow will be much sunnier, especially for Los Angeles and
Ventura Counties, which will help conditions warm noticeably. The
extra sun and lingering moisture (850 millibar dewpoints around
12C) will bring a small chance for a shower or thunderstorm over
the San Gabriel mountains on Friday. The big warm up for Saturday
through Tuesday remains on track, but the latest projections look
a few degrees warmer than currently advertised. As a result, the
Labor Day holiday will be very warm, and there is a small chance
for a few Heat Advisories.

***From Previous Discussion***

What`s left of Juliette is mostly staying south of LA County with
just some high clouds across our area. Measurable rain never made
it north of San Diego County except in the mountains. Clouds will
be clearing overnight as the remnants move into the Mojave Desert
and beyond. That will leave mostly clear skies Friday through the
weekend except for some low clouds and fog along the Central
Coast during the night and morning hours. It will probably take a
at least a day or two (and possibly much longer) for widespread
marine layer redevelops south of Pt Conception, but low confidence
in that forecast.

The main thing tomorrow and this weekend will be warming
temperatures with highs getting back into the triple digits in the
valleys and low to possibly mid 90s in Downtown LA. Also expecting
several degrees of warming along the Central Coast this weekend as
a light northeast flow develops. It doesn`t look quite as warm as
the last heat wave but enough to push temps into the lower 90s in
the warmest areas, including San Luis Obispo. Heat risk numbers
are getting close to advisory levels in some areas this weekend
based on the current forecast so there is at least 20-30% chance
of advisory level heat, especially in the interior coastal areas,
as well as some valleys and mountains.

Currently there are no thunderstorms in the forecast Friday
through the weekend. There is some elevated CAPE on Friday but not
much moisture so probably some afternoon cumulus across the
LA/Ventura mountains but for now no thunderstorms expected.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...28/208 PM.

The warm pattern is expected to continue into next week as high
pressure slowly builds back over the southwest after the passage
of Juliette. Another degree or two of warming is likely early
next week, possibly requiring the issuance of heat hazards, or
extensions of previously issued hazards. A slow cooling trend is
expected to develop mid to late week in response to the high
pressure ridge weakening.

&&

.AVIATION...29/0533Z.

At 0440Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 500 ft deep. The top of the
inversion was at 1500 ft with a temperature of 25 C.

Low confidence in TAFs for KSBP and KSMX. There is a 30% and 40%
chance for LIFR conds, respectively, between 08Z and 16Z.

High confidence in remaining TAFs with VFR conditions expected
through forecast period.

KLAX...High confidence in 06Z TAF. High confidence in easterly
wind component remaining under 6 knots.

KBUR...High confidence in 06Z TAF.

&&

.MARINE...29/207 AM.

[Moderate to High confidence]

For the Outer Waters, expect low-end Small Craft Advisory (SCA)
wind gusts across the northern portion (PZZ670) & particularly >20
miles from the shore, with a lull in winds likely during the
morning hours. Localized SCA wind gusts around Pt Conception are
possible each afternoon & evening through at least Monday. Seas
will peak 7 to 8 feet across western portions of PZZ670/673 on
Saturday & Sunday. There is a 60% chance of a SCA being issued
each day during the afternoon and evening timeframe through
Monday for PZZ670. Also, a 30% chance for PZZ673.

The nearshore waters north of Point Sal (PZZ645) will have a
30-40% chance of SCA gusts each afternoon and evening through Sunday.
Otherwise, winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels
through at least Monday.

[Low to Moderate confidence]

Thereafter, SCA wind gusts will likely be focused south of Point
Conception, with seas remaining well below advisory levels through
Thursday.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3
      AM PDT Saturday for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/Kittell
AVIATION...Black
MARINE...Black
SYNOPSIS...MW/CC

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox