259
FXUS66 KLOX 161006
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
306 AM PDT Thu Oct 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...16/211 AM.

A light Santa Ana pattern will occur today and Friday and will
bring much warmer temperatures and some locally breezy northeast
winds. Dry weather will continue into next week but with cooler
temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT)...16/241 AM.

Very little to talk about for the short term aside from some
winds.

Currently skies are clear as all of cold air has wiped out the
marine inversion. There is about 1 mb of offshore flow from the
east and 4 mb from the north. This offshore push will generate
some sub advisory 20 to 30 mph winds through some northerly
oriented passes and canyons. The most notable effect of the
offshore push will be on the temperatures. Almost all areas will
see 5 to 10 degrees of warming today. Despite the warming max
temps will end up 3 to 6 degrees below normal across the csts/vlys
and 5 to 10 degrees across the mtns and interior.

Overnight and into Friday morning 4mb of offshore flow will
develop from both the N and E. At the same time the upper level
flow will also turn to the NE. A stronger Santa Ana will develop
right along the typical wind corridor (Santa Clarita Vly to Mugu
NAS). Right now it looks like the gusts will come in just under
advisory criteria but if there is just a little more upper level
support there will likely be low end advisory level gusts between
35 and 45 mph. Max temps will bump up another 3 to 6 degrees
(higher across the interior of SLO and SBA counties). Most max
temps will still remain a few degrees under normal.

A little ridge will nose in from the west on Saturday. More
importantly the offshore flow will relax and will only be half as
strong as it was on Friday. Skies will remain sunny most areas
will warm a few more degrees, but the coasts will cool a degree or
two as an earlier sea breeze arrives.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...16/250 AM.

There is better mdl agreement in the xtnd fcst today. Both the GFS
and EC as well as most ensembles agree that Srn CA will remain in
an upper air no man`s land with broad troffing to the N as cut off
low to the SW and a weak ridge to the SE. This pattern will
continue through Tuesday. Decent onshore flow returns both to the
east and north and this along with a little warming in the lower
atmosphere will reestablish the marine inversion and night through
morning low clouds look likely. The onshore flow will bring 2 to 3
degrees of cooling to the csts vlys on Sunday. Stronger onshore
flow and some cool air from the interior will drop most max temps
4 to 6 degrees on Monday. This will make most of the cst/vly max
temps in the 70s with just a few 80-81 degree readings. Tuesday
will look very similar to Monday with maybe a degree or two of
warming as hgts nudge up a tad.

The upper low that had been spinning to the SW will finally begin
to move Tuesday night and it will transverse San Diego county
during the day on Wednesday. Not expecting it to affect the
weather much with only minimal changes to the marine layer and
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...16/1000Z.

Around 0830Z, there was no marine layer depth at KLAX.

High confidence in the current forecast. VFR conditions are
expected through the period, but there is a moderate chance of
IFR conditions at KPRB between 11Z and 15Z. There is a moderate to
high chance of moderate wind shear after 02Z Friday at Los
Angeles County valley and Ventura County coastal terminals. There
is a low chance that northeast wind gusts up to 15 to 20 knots
could develop at coastal and valley terminals late tonight and
Friday morning.

KLAX...VFR conditions are expected through the period. Any
easterly winds should remain less than 7 knots.

KBUR....VFR conditions are expected through the period. There is
a 30 percent chance of moderate wind shear after 08Z Friday. There
is a 10 percent chance that northeast wind gusts up to 15 to 20
knots could develop late tonight and Friday morning.

&&

.MARINE...16/155 AM.

For the waters southwest through northwest of the Channel Islands
and outside the southern California bight, there is a high-to-
likely (50 to 80 percent) chance of Small Craft Advisory (SCA)
level northwest winds this morning, increasing to a likely-to-
imminent (70 to 100 percent) chance by late this afternoon and
continuing through late tonight or early Friday morning. The
highest chances for SCA level winds will be for the waters from
near Point Conception south to San Nicolas Island. Winds and seas
will likely fall below SCA levels between Friday morning through
Sunday afternoon, then there is a moderate-to-high (30 to 50
percent) chance of SCA conditions early next week.

For the nearshore waters along the Central Coast, there is a
moderate-to-high (30 to 50 percent) chance of Small Craft
Advisory (SCA) level northwest winds this morning, increasing to
a likely (60 to 80 percent) chance by late this afternoon and
continuing through late this evening. The highest chances for SCA
level winds will be for the nearshore waters just northwest of
Point Sal to Avila Beach. Winds and seas will likely fall below
SCA levels between Friday morning through Sunday afternoon, but
there is a moderate (30-40 percent) chance of SCA northeast to
east level winds each night and morning through Saturday morning.
By Monday afternoon, there is a moderate (30 to 40 percent)
chance of SCA conditions through Monday evening.

Inside the southern California bight, winds are expected to remain
below SCA levels through early next week, but there is a moderate
(30 to 40 percent) chance of SCA level northeast to east nearshore
Friday and Saturday mornings. The highest chance of SCA level
winds will be from near Rincon Point south and east to near Santa
Monica.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 1 PM this afternoon to 9
      PM PDT this evening for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from 1 PM this afternoon to 3
      AM PDT Friday for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 AM PDT Friday for
      zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Rorke
AVIATION...Hall
MARINE...Hall
SYNOPSIS...MW

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox