686
FXUS66 KLOX 252305
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
305 PM PST Tue Nov 25 2025

.SYNOPSIS...25/1217 AM.

Dry conditions are expected through at least Friday with
above normal temperatures and gusty Santa Ana winds at times
from Tuesday through Thursday. A cooling trend will develop next
weekend with areas of gusty north winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-FRI)...25/225 PM.

Not much going on in the short term. No advisories are
anticipated through the period.

At the upper levels, weak ridging will continue over the area
with hgts ranging from 580 to 582 dam. At the sfc offshore flow
will continue through Thursday, peaking Wednesday.

Stronger offshore flow will keep the coasts and vlys clear
Wednesday, but the interior of SLO county may well be cloudy again
as the offshore flow pushes low clouds into the area from the San
Joaquin Vly. Thanksgiving looks cloudy as a grip of mid and high
level clouds move overhead.

As for winds, there is no upper of thermal support so any winds
will have to totally rely on the sfc gradients. There will be some
gusty north winds today but with only isolated advisory level
gust. The winds will turn NE Wednesday morning and a weak Santa
Ana wind event will ensue. The offshore gradients will both be
around 5 mb. Again, with no upper support it is unlikely that
there will be a need for advisories. Weakening offshore flow on
Thanksgiving will likely only produce 15 to 25 mph canyon winds in
the morning.

Ridging aloft and offshore flow peak Wednesday and this should
lead to 2 to 4 degrees of warming. This will push most max temps
into the mid 70s to lower 80s. The decrease in offshore flow on
Thursday along with lowering hgts and the increase in cloud cover
will result in 2 to 4 locally 6 degrees of cooling. Despite the
cooling most max temps will end up 2 to 4 degrees above normal.
Overnight lows will gradually increase through Thursday or Friday,
especially after tonight when patchy frost will be possible once
again for interior areas.

Weak troffing sets up over the area on Friday. The high clouds
will move off to the east and it will be a mostly sunny day. The
offshore flow weakens to near neutral and this will bring 3 to 6
degrees of cooling to the csts and vlys despite the added
sunshine. The added sunshine will bring several degrees of warming
to interior areas.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...25/226 PM.

Well below normal confidence in the entire extended period and
beyond as guidance struggles with the timing and evolution of a
trough of two digging into the West Coast. The initial trough this
weekend has trended towards an inside slider with only a 20
percent chance of showers (leaving an 80 percent that it will be
dry) focused across Los Angeles County. Seasonably cool conditions
with breezy north to northeast winds will likely prevail this
weekend into early next week.

Active, unsettled weather may return for the middle of next week,
although forecast confidence is very low for this time frame with
a wide range of possible outcomes; from mostly dry conditions to a
moderate or strong storm.

&&

.AVIATION...25/1739Z.

Around 1714Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer. The top of the
sfc- based inversion was at 2000 ft with a temperature of 19 C.

High confidence in VFR conds for all sites except KPRB, where
there is only a 30% chance for VFR conds. Timing of cigs at KPRB
may be off +/- 2 hours, and minimum flight cat off by 1 cat. For
LA county coastal sites, less than 10% chance for VLIFR- LIFR
conds from 07Z-17Z. Intermitent periods of 3-5SM vsbys are also
possible at coastal and valley site.

KLAX...High confidence in VFR TAF. Less than 10% chance for
OVC002-004 and vsbys 1/2SM-2SM vsbys 07Z-17Z. Good confidence
that any east wind component will be under 8kt.

KBUR...High confidence in TAF. 20% chance for east to northeast
winds 5-10 kts to surface 03Z-18Z.

&&

.MARINE...25/1230 PM.

Conditions will continue to improve well below Small Craft
Advisory (SCA) criteria through tonight, and will remain
relatively mild through Thanksgiving. However, there is a
moderate chance of north-northeast winds gusting 20-30 knots
nearshore from Ventura to Santa Monica tonight through Thursday
morning, with strongest winds expected tonight into Wednesday
afternoon. Localized wind gusts to 25 knots are possible nearshore
along the Central coast, with best chances from Cayucos south to
Morro Bay each night through morning this week.

Winds and seas will likely (60% chance) increase to SCA levels
once again across the Outer Waters as early as Thursday night or
Friday. Nearshore along the Central Coast and across the Santa
Barbara Channel, winds will increase Saturday afternoon and
evening, but chances for widespread SCA conditions are low.

There is quite a bit of uncertainty for this weekend, but
there is a moderate to high chance of widespread SCA conditions,
including nearshore. Seas will likely increase to around 10 to 12
feet across the outer waters, and 4 to 6 feet inside the Southern
California Bight. There is a low chance of widespread Gale Force
Winds this weekend.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Rorke/Munroe
AVIATION...Lewis
MARINE...Lewis
SYNOPSIS...MW

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox