171
FXUS66 KLOX 292124
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
224 PM PDT Wed Jul 29 2026

.SYNOPSIS...29/222 PM.

Temperatures will become dangerously hot in many areas for Friday
through the upcoming weekend, as the next heat wave arrives. Some
cooling is expected next week, though temperatures will remain
above normal. Dangerous surf conditions are expected at beaches
this week into this weekend, as a result of swells from a distant
tropical cyclone located west of Mexico.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT)...29/222 PM.

Temperatures will remain seasonably warm today and tomorrow
before high pressure over Arizona expands west Friday and through
the weekend. Models have been very consistent over the last week
showing 500mb heights rising to 600dam (at or above the 99th
percentile) over the interior California deserts by Saturday and
possibly as far west as the coast. The extreme pressure being
exerted from aloft will force temperatures at the surface to rise
to around 10 degrees above normal in many areas, resulting in
significant heat stress, especially in areas that have limited or
no access to cooling sources. Current forecast highs are near or
exceeding record temperatures in many areas, especially Friday and
Saturday. Temperatures along the Central Coast are cooler
compared to other areas but even there forecasts are close to or
exceeding daily records.

One positive aspect is that humidities have been decreasing as
tropical moisture remains east and south of the area. This is
allowing overnight temperatures overnight to cool a few degrees,
providing some relief. However models are strongly suggesting
increasing moisture aloft later this week and weekend during the
peak of the heat wave, which will further exacerbate the heat
stress over the area.

A large south swell from Tropical Cyclone Genevieve will further
enhance large wave and potentially deadly rip currents for some
area beaches.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...29/223 PM.

A slow cooling trend is expected to begin Sunday, though
temperatures will still be 5-10 degrees above normal and
increasing moisture aloft will limit overnight cooling and keep
humidities higher than normal. And in addition, high pressure
aloft will continue to dominate the weather pattern along the West
Coast all of next week, meaning highs will remain above normal
for the foreseeable future. Heat hazards may continue into next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...29/1819Z.

At 1800Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1500 feet deep. The top of
the inversion was 5000 feet with a temperature of 23 degrees
Celsius.

For 18Z TAFs, moderate to high confidence. For TAFs near the
coast and in the coastal valleys, CIG/VSBY restrictions with night
through morning fog may vary from forecasts by 3 hours in timing
and by 1 level in minimum flight category. High confidence in VFR
TAFs for interior sites.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 40% chance for onset
and dissipation of flight restrictions to vary by up to 3 hours
from the current forecast. There is a 40% chance for minimum
flight category to vary by up to 1 level from current forecast.
No significant easterly wind component is anticipated.

KBUR...High confidence in TAF. There is a 20% chance for MVFR CIGS
10Z-15Z Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...29/223 PM.

For the Outer Waters, Small Craft Advisory (SCA) winds and seas
will occur through the remainder of this week and into this
weekend, before subsiding for next week.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, there is an 80% chance
for SCA winds each afternoon and evening through this weekend.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, there is 50%
chance for SCA winds each afternoon and evening through this
weekend over the western one-third of the Santa Barbara Channel.

Additionally seas of 8-10 feet will impact the outer waters into
this weekend, owing to substantial long-period southerly swell
from a distant tropical cyclone, combining with shorter-period
northwesterly swell from wind-waves. As a result, hazardous seas
will be common over especially the outer waters, extending to the
coast especially for the Central Coast.

&&

.BEACHES...29/223 PM.

A distant tropical cyclone will generate large southerly swells
affecting the beaches for the remainder of this week into this
weekend. Please reference the Coastal Hazard Message for details
on High Surf and Coastal Flood Advisories, as well as Beach
Hazards Statements. Dangerous rip currents will be of particular
concern this weekend.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Extreme Heat Warning in effect from 10 AM Friday to 8 PM PDT
      Sunday for zones
      38-88-343>345-351>353-355>358-368>376-378-379-548. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     High Surf Advisory in effect until 5 PM PDT Saturday for
      zones 87-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     Coastal Flood Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Saturday for
      zones 87-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     Beach Hazards Statement in effect through Saturday afternoon
      for zones 340-346-349-350-356. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     Heat Advisory in effect from 10 AM Friday to 8 PM PDT Sunday
      for zones 341-342-347>350-354-362-366-367-377. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Heat Advisory in effect from 10 AM Thursday to 10 AM PDT
      Friday for zones 378-379. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Heat Advisory in effect from 10 AM Thursday to 8 PM PDT
      Sunday for zone 380. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Extreme Heat Warning in effect from 10 AM Thursday to 8 PM
      PDT Sunday for zones 381>383. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PDT this evening
      for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 5 AM PDT Monday for
      zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/Cohen
AVIATION...Cohen
MARINE...Cohen
BEACHES...Cohen
SYNOPSIS...Cohen/MW

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox