012
FXUS66 KLOX 081635
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
935 AM PDT Wed Oct 8 2025

.SYNOPSIS...08/900 AM.

High temperatures will remain near normal the remainder of the
week as a low pressure system moves into northern California.
Hurricane Priscilla may send showers and thunderstorms into Los
Angeles County Thursday into early Friday. Dry and seasonable
weather is expected over the weekend, but there is a chance of
rain early next week as a storm system drops out of Canada.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-FRI)...08/934 AM.

***UPDATE***

Priscilla remains a hurricane as of this morning, though
significant weakening is expected over the next 24-36 hours as it
moves over cooler waters and eventually inland over central Baja.
Based on the latest track from the TPC as well as the the latest
models, most of the precip from this storm is expected to remain
east and south of LA County. Having said that, as the outer bands
of Priscilla start moving into US waters later early Thursday,
can`t completely rule out isolated lightning strikes across
southern LA County and the adjacent coastal waters. As for the
chances for rain, one factor to consider is that most of the
moisture is expected to be at 700mb or higher so some of the
precip will evaporate before reaching the ground. So there`s still
a lot of uncertainty, but as of this morning the trends are
shifting more to the east of LA County for the more significant
impacts.

***From Previous Discussion***

The Thursday Friday forecast for SLO/SBA/VTA counties is pretty
straight forward. Increased cyclonic flow aloft will bring night
through morning low clouds. Skies may be partly cloudy at times as
some mid level tropical moisture wafts overhead. Max temps will
cool with cool air advection on Thursday and then warm some on
Friday as the cool air advection shuts off and offshore trends
begin. Max temps will be below normal both.

The L.A. county forecast is a different story. The southern and
eastern portions of the county will be right on the edge of
moisture from Priscilla`s remnants. Right now it looks most likely
(80 percent chc) that the rain showers will stay to the south and
east of the county. There is, however, a 20 percent chc through
the period that the moisture will reach far enough to the north to
bring a slight chc (20 percent) of showers and perhaps a TSTM to
the southern and eastern portions of LA county. The cloud bases
will be fairly high up and at this time it looks like the threat
of high rates or amounts is quite low.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...08/1233 AM.

The trof will move through the area on Saturday. The cool air
advection and mixing from the trof should disrupt the marine layer
enough to eliminate the threat of low clouds. 5mb of offshore flow
will develop from the north and this along with the NW winds
behind the trof will generate some gusty N to NW winds in the
mtns, SBA south cst and the Antelope Vly. Most of he csts will
only see 1 to 3 degrees of cooling, the vlys will cool 3 to 6
degrees and the interior with the cool air pouring in from the
north will cool 8 to 12 degrees.

Broad cyclonic flow will continue over the state on Sunday. With
no upper level subsidence or warm air advection the marine
inversion will not reform and there will be no low clouds and
skies will be mostly sunny. Max temps will not change much from
Saturday`s values and will come in 3 to 6 degrees blo normal.
Another morning will 5 mb of offshore flow from the north may
produce some locally canyon winds.

There is a decent amount of mdl disagreement on the Monday
forecast. An upper low will spin out of British Columbia and from
the there the mdl diverge on its path and strength. This mdl
confusion is a little too far away to really affect the fcst over
Srn CA where lowering hgts and increasing onshore flow will team
up to lower coastal temps by 3 to 6 degrees. Max temps across the
csts and vlys will only be in the upper 60s and 70s or 4 to 8
degrees under normal.

There is a vast amount of disagreement with the Tue/Wed forecast
as the path, evolution and timing of the upper low are in great
question. At least on solution calls for a significant storm.
Right now there is a 30 to 40 percent chc of rain on either day.
Clouds and lower hgts will bring more cooling making it the
coolest day in quite some time.

&&

.AVIATION...08/1156Z.

At 1045Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1700 feet deep. The top of
the inversion was near 2700 feet with a temperature of 19 C.

High confidence in TAFs for KPMD & KWJF.

Moderate confidence in the remainder of the TAFs. Clearing times
may also be off +/- 2 hours. Cig hgts may be off by +/- 200 ft.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 30 percent chc of
SCT conds arriving at 19Z and a 20 percent chc of 22Z. No
significant east wind component expected.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. VFR conds may not arrive until
18Z.

&&

.MARINE...08/851 AM.

Across the outer waters and nearshore along the Central Coast,
conditions are likely to remain below Small Craft Advisory (SCA)
criteria through Thursday. Isolated gusts near SCA levels are
possible south of Point Conception Thursday evening, and winds are
expected to reach SCA levels Thursday night into Friday morning
generally south of Point Conception. Friday through the weekend,
SCA winds are likely to become widespread, with a 30% chance of
GALES south of Point Conception on Friday evening. There is a
40-50% chance for gales on Saturday. Seas are likely to become
choppy & significant wave heights will near 10 ft over the
weekend.

For the inner waters south of Point Conception, conditions should
generally remain below SCA criteria during the overnight to
morning hours, but winds are expected to trend stronger this
evening through the weekend. Isolated gusts approaching SCA
levels are possible near Point Dume and across the San Pedro
Channel this evening, and there is a 60-70% chance for localized
SCA level gusts Thursday evening. There is a moderate to high
chance for SCA level winds Friday & Saturday, with highest chances
across the western portion of the Santa Barbara Channel,
including a 20% chance of GALES on Saturday. Seas likely to become
choppy during this time.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/Rorke
AVIATION...Rorke
MARINE...Phillips/Lund/Black
SYNOPSIS...MW

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox