690
FXUS66 KLOX 292117
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
217 PM PDT Fri Aug 29 2025

.SYNOPSIS...29/213 PM.

Temperatures will trend upwards today and Saturday, then remain
well above normal through the middle of next week. Expect a very
warm Labor Day Weekend, with lots of sunshine and dry weather.
There is a slight chance of monsoonal thunderstorms across the
mountains and deserts starting Tuesday, with higher chances to the
east of Los Angeles County.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-MON)...29/212 PM.

Synoptically, there is an upper level 566 dam Low west of Oregon
with a trough extending into northern California, while ridging
is building into our area from a 595 dam High to our southeast.
Expect warming over the next few days as heights build and onshore
flow weakens.  By Monday morning, the High will be centered over
Arizona and in a favorable position to bring moisture into the
area, introducing the slight chance of monsoonal thunderstorms in
the mountains and desert by Tuesday. A broad area of ridging will
remain over the area through next Saturday.

After a cloudy start along the central coast this morning, the
day has turned mostly sunny with the exception for cumulus build
up over the LA and Ventura County mountains. Thunderstorms are
possible, but not expected. Northerly wind gusts, up to 30-40 mph,
may impact some wind prone areas tonight and Saturday night,
including the western Santa Ynez Range and adjacent coasts, the
Interstate 5 Corridor, and interior mountain.

Saturday and Sunday will bring warmer conditions, but without the
moisture that brought some afternoon showers earlier this week.
There is a heat advisory for portions of the area beginning on
Sunday as afternoon highs will be near 103 in Paso Robles,
Lancaster, and Agoura Hills.

Monday the heat shifts more towards Los Angeles County and a heat
advisory is in effect for much of the County through Tuesday
evening. No product for the Antelope Valley as conditions will
remain below the threshold for an extreme heat warning, nor for
the coast where the marine layer should help keep conditions
cooler.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...29/212 PM.

Weak ridging will persist into next week, maintaining well above
normal temperatures across the region. Heat is favored to peak on
Tuesday with downtown LA in the low-to-mid 90s, but the advisory
products may be continued through Wednesday. By Thursday, some
cooling is expected, as heights drop and onshore flow increases.

Monsoonal mositure will likely return to the region starting
Tuesday with about an 80 percent chance of PWATs above one inch
across eastern Los Angeles County. At this time, there is a around
a 10 to 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms focused
over the Ventura and Los Angeles County Mountains and the Antelope
Valley during the afternoons and evenings of Tuesday through at
least Thursday. The most likely area for showers would be in the
eastern portion of the San Gabriel Mountains and Antelope Valley.

&&

.AVIATION...29/1731Z.

At 1634Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer depth and there were
multiple weak inversions.

Low confidence in arrival of low clouds at KSBP and KSMX. There is
a 30-40% chance for no low clouds, highest at KSBP. If low clouds
arrive, there is a 30% chance for vsbys 1/2SM or less.

High confidence in remaining TAFs. 10% chance for LIFR to IFR
conds at KOXR, KSMO, KLAX, and KLGB after 10Z.

KLAX...High confidence in TAF. 10% chance for cigs 003-007 after
10Z, but low confidence in cig height or vsbys if low clouds
arrive. Any east wind component should remain below 6 kts.

KBUR...High confidence in TAF.

&&

.MARINE...29/1153 AM.

Moderate confidence in NW winds 20-25 kts across the Outer Waters
this afternoon through tonight and for the nearshore waters along
the Central Coast each afternoon and evening through Labor Day.
Higher confidence in NW winds 20-30 kts becoming more widespread
Saturday through Labor Day for the Outer Waters, potentially
continuing into Tuesday. There is a 30% chance for Gale Force
winds beyond 20 NM from shore from Point Conception to Point Sal
Saturday evening into the late night hours. Relative lulls
possible in the morning hours.

Aside from fairly seasonal afternoon and evening localized NW
wind gusts 20-25 kts in the far Western Portion of the Santa
Barbara Channel and 15-20 kts in the San Pedro Channel, light
winds and small seas will be common for the nearshore waters south
of Point Conception.

&&

.BEACHES...29/755 AM.

A long period southerly swell from the Southern Hemisphere will
arrive late Saturday and continue through Monday. Hazardous rip
currents are likely over Labor Day Weekend, especially Saturday
afternoon through Sunday night for Los Angeles and Ventura County
beaches. Elevated surf (up to 6 feet) will be possible at south
and southwest facing beaches during the aforementioned period.

If you are at the beach this Labor Day Weekend, swim near a
lifeguard tower and stay aware of ocean conditions.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Heat Advisory remains in effect from 10 AM to 6 PM PDT Sunday
      for zones 38-342-345-349-371. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Heat Advisory in effect from 10 AM Monday to 6 PM PDT Tuesday
      for zones 88-368>374-548. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Beach Hazards Statement in effect from late tonight through
      Monday evening for zones 340-346-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PDT this evening
      for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Saturday for
      zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Schoenfeld/jld
AVIATION...Lewis
MARINE...Lewis
BEACHES...Lewis
SYNOPSIS...jld

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox