039
FXUS66 KLOX 172112
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
212 PM PDT Tue Jun 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...17/122 PM.

High pressure over the region will maintain very warm temperatures
through much of the coming week, especially away from the coast
and across the interior portions of the area. Gusty northerly
winds will develop once again tonight across southern Santa
Barbara County and through the Interstate 5 Corridor. A gradual
cooling trend will begin Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-FRI)...17/203 PM.

Another warm day across area with highs approaching triple digits
in the warmer valleys and near 90 in Downtown LA. Another area
that experienced temperatures several degrees above normal was the
south coast of Santa Barbara County where Sundowners coming down
from the Santa Ynez Range have pushed temperatures to around 90 in
the Refugio/El Capitan area. Still in the 70s in SB but with
another round of Sundowners this evening additional warming into
the 80s is likely there.

Moving forward, still looking at another warm day Wednesday but
with some notable differences. A trough approaching the West Coast
will increase onshore flow and bring a few degrees of cooling to
most coast and coastal valley areas. In addition, an eddy is
expected to develop over the coastal waters tonight that would
increase help pull cooler air inland and potentially increase
coastal stratus across LA County. Cooler as well along the Central
Coast with increasing marine layer stratus in the morning.

Farther inland, however, including the Antelope Valley and
interior SLO/SB Counties, models are showing 950 temps rising to
close to 40c which in most cases results in highs at least over
100 and as high as 107 across the AV. This would be a 5-7 degree
increase over today, but still not quite worthy of heat hazards.

The trough will deepen across the area Thursday and Friday which
will bring temperatures back down to normal and even a few degrees
below normal by Friday. This will be accompanied by marine layer
stratus pushing well into the valleys with slow clearing at the
coast.

Friday night, however, could be a strong Sundowner event for
southern Santa Barbara County as increasing north flow develops on
the back side of the trough. Gusts to 50 or higher are possible
across the Santa Ynez Range and down through the canyons.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...17/211 PM.

The trough pattern will continue through the weekend and
potentially through most of next week keeping temperatures on the
cooler side of normal with a healthy dose of a deep marine layer
for coast and valleys. Would not be surprised if some of those
mornings are damp with drizzle. Highs mostly in the 60s and 70s
for beaches and coastal valleys and 80s for the interior valleys.

&&

.AVIATION...17/1728Z.

At 1602Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1000 feet deep. The top of
the inversion was around 3800 feet with a temperature of 24 C.

Low confidence in TAFs for KSMX, KSBP, KLGB. For KSMX, there is a
40% chance for VFR conds to prevail through the period. For KSBP
(30%) and KLGB (40%), there is a chance for LIFR and IFR/MVFR
conds respectively.

Moderate confidence in TAF for KSBA and KLAX. There is a 30%
chance north sundowner wind do not surface at KSBA. There is a 20%
chance for IFR to MVFR conds at KLAX from 10Z to 18Z.

High confidence in remaining TAFs.
KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF through 06Z, then moderate
confidence in TAF thereafter. There is a 20% chance for cigs
005-012 and/or vsbys 3SM to 5SM between 10Z and 18Z. Any east
wind component is likely to be less than 6 knots.

KBUR...High confidence in TAF.

&&

.MARINE...17/134 PM.

High confidence in gusty Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level
northwest winds across the Outer Waters and Inner Waters along the
Central coast through the weekend. A Gale Warning is in effect
for the Outer Waters and the Inner Waters along the Central Coast
through tonight. Seas will hover around 10 feet for the outers
waters, increasing to up to 14 feet late this week. Moderate to
high confidence in a return of Gale force winds across the waters
later this week through the weekend, as early as Wednesday night
for the northern Outer Waters.

Across the Santa Barbara Channel, widespread Small Craft
conditions are expected with local Gale force winds possible
across the western portion of the zone (away from Santa Barbara,
Ventura, and Channel Islands Harbors) through tonight. After a
lull Wednesday, a return of SCA level winds is likely Thursday
through the weekend, potentially impacting immediate coastlines
this weekend. Gale force gusts are possible in the western portion
of the zone Friday and Saturday.

High confidence in conditions remaining below advisory levels in
the Inner Waters off the Los Angeles and Orange County coasts
through Wednesday, with localized W to NW SCA level wind gusts
possible in the afternoon and evening hours near Malibu and
through portions of the San Pedro Channel through Tuesday. Low
confidence in forecast for Thursday into the weekend as winds
could increase to SCA levels but may be confined to the western
portion of the zone away from the immediate coasts.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...Gale Warning in effect until 9 PM PDT this evening for zone
      645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for
      zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Warning in effect until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for zones
      670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...Lewis
MARINE...Lewis/Schoenfeld
SYNOPSIS...MW/Ciliberti

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox