194
FXUS66 KLOX 140324
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
824 PM PDT Thu Aug 13 2026

.SYNOPSIS...13/649 PM.

A cooler weather pattern with night through morning low clouds and
fog will linger into Saturday as a weak trough of low pressure
remains along the California coast. A warming trend will begin
over the weekend as high pressure to the east gradually expands
over the region. Temperatures will remain below normal through at
least Sunday then warm above normal by Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THU-SUN)...13/812 PM.

***UPDATE***

A trough along the West Coast extends from the Pacific Northwest
to northern California, then southward over the offshore waters
of Southern California. The placement of this weak upper trough
supports southwest winds aloft, and mid-level clouds continue to
stream over the area in this flow. There will be continued low
chances (10% or less) of convective showers and thunderstorms with
this moisture flow, mainly during the afternoon to early evening
hours into the weekend. But with limited moisture and instability
the storms will struggle to get started.

The combination of upper troughing near the coast with moderate
to strong onshore gradients has caused a fairly deep marine layer
to form. Low clouds are expected to move well inland overnight,
with a chance of some drizzle occurring. The overnight low clouds
and patchy drizzle may recur the next couple of nights as well,
due to the proximity of the upper trough to the coastline. The
clouds may struggle to clear along the coast in some areas
tomorrow afternoon, especially along the Central Coast.

Cooler temperatures are expected to persist through Friday, with
70s to 80s across most of the area except for low 90s in the
Antelope Valley. Gusty onshore winds will occur in the afternoon
to overnight hours, as onshore gradients persist. Peak gusts over
the interior will be around 25 to 35 mph.

***From Previous Discussion***

The trough will start to weaken over the coming days and 500 mb
heights will climb into the weekend. The marine layer depth will
start to shrink on Saturday as onshore flow weakens. Temperatures
will gradually warm through the weekend as high pressure aloft
starts to press down on top of the marine layer. Low clouds will
start to retract from the valleys area and become confined to the
coast.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...13/246 PM.

The latest forecast ensembles suggest a steady warming trend taking
place through at least Tuesday as 500 mb heights climb to near
594-595 decameters. Any night through morning low clouds and fog
should become confined to the coast by Sunday or Monday.
Temperatures should approach August during this time. After
Tuesday, the spread ensemble member solutions diverge some. Two of
the cluster analysis panels suggest a warming trend continuing,
while one of the panel would bring some cooling.

A northerly surface pressure gradient could develop between
Sunday and Tuesday. Gusty northerly winds could develop across
southern Santa Barbara County and through the Interstate 5
Corridor. Advisory level Sundowner winds could develop during this
time, but there is some uncertainty in the timing and the actual
strength of the winds.

&&

.AVIATION...14/0213Z.

At 0029Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 2000 feet deep. The top of
the inversion was near 4400 feet with a temperature of 19 C.

High confidence in VFR TAFs for KPMD & KWJF.

Moderate confidence in remaining TAFs. Timing of change groups
may be off +/- 2 hours, with CIGs between 015 to 30.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. Timing of cat changes could be
off by +/- 3 hours. No significant east wind component expected.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. Timing of cat changes could be
off by +/- 2 hours. No wind issues expected.

&&

.MARINE...13/809 PM.

High confidence that conditions will remain below Small Craft
Advisory (SCA) criteria across all coastal waters through Saturday
morning. There is a 30-50% chance of SCA winds across the outer
waters and the western portion of the inner waters starting
Saturday afternoon, with the highest chances for the waters south
of Point Conception and the Santa Barbara Channel during the
afternoon/evening hours. Chances increase Sunday afternoon, and at
least SCA conds will continue through mid-week. Gusts of 30-35 kt
will be possible starting Monday, with highest likelihood around
Point Conception. Seas may approach 10 ft across portions of the
Outer Waters Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Hall/Ciliberti
AVIATION...Black/KL
MARINE...Lund
SYNOPSIS...Hall/Ciliberti

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox