784
FXUS66 KLOX 111641
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
841 AM PST Thu Dec 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...11/1249 AM.

Expecting continued warm high temperatures, with a cooling trend
Friday into the weekend as high pressure weakens. Temperatures
should trend warmer again next week. A shallow marine layer will
develop Friday week and could bring dense fog to the coastal
areas through Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT)...11/752 AM.

***UPDATE***

Latest satellite and surface observations indicate clear skies
across the district this morning. Weak offshore gradients are
generating some local northeasterly winds, gusting 20-30 MPH, in
the more favored canyons.

Forecast-wise for the immediate short term, current forecast looks
very much on track. Based on morning TEMP STUDY data, today looks
to be slightly cooler today across the coasts and coastal valleys
while inland areas look to warm up a couple of degrees. Current
offshore winds will remain weak and localized through the day.

Overall, current forecast has great handle on a "Chamber of
Commerce" across the area. No significant updates are expected.

***From Previous Discussion***

The warm spell will continue with only slight cooling forecast
through Saturday. An upper high over the state will bring 585 dam
hgts to the area today weakening to 582 dam on Friday. Very weak
troffing will arrive Saturday and hgts will fall further to 579
dam. At the sfc 2.5 to 5 mb of offshore flow (from both the N and
E) today will weaken to about 2 mb in both directions Friday. By
Saturday morning the gradients will be near neutral.

Look for a very similar warm day as ydy was. Skies will be sunny.
Max temps across the csts/vly will cool 1 to 3 degrees (maybe a
few more across the VTA coastal plain) due to the weaker offshore
flow. Hgts are a smidge higher and this will bring a couple
degrees of warming to the mtns and the interior. Most temperatures
away from the nearshore area will be about 15 degrees above normal
with 20 degree departures over the VTA vlys and the western LA
county vlys.

It looks like low clouds might arrive a day early as the
weakening offshore flow may not be strong enough to hold them
back. This is not a sure thing forecast and there is a 40 percent
chc that there will be no low clouds. If the low clouds do form
it will be late - around sunrise. Due to the high pressure
overhead the marine layer will be smooshed to less than 500 ft and
dense fog is likely wherever low clouds form. Look for 2 to 4
degrees of cooling across most of the area. Despite the cooling
there will still be plenty of 80s in the vlys.

The troffing and near neutral sfc flow will bring a high chc of
low cloud formation Saturday morning. Low clouds should cover most
of the csts and again there will likely be dense fog along with
the very low clouds. The lower hgts and lack of appreciable
offshore flow will allow for 3 to 6 locally 8 degrees of cooling.
This will bring max temps down to around 70 at the csts and 70 to
80 degrees in the vlys. These max temps are still 5 to 10 degrees
above normal.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...11/1248 AM.

A little bit of temperature whiplash slated for next Sun and Mon.
Weak troffing and onshore flow will bring morning low clouds to
the coasts and lower vlys on Sunday. Max temps will respond and
will lower 3 to 6 degrees. This will bring coastal temps down to
the mid 60s to low 70s and vly temp to the lower to mid 70s. A
quick turn around on Monday to weak ridging and weak offshore flow
will allow max temps to rebound 4 to 8 degrees across the csts/vly
with 2 to 4 degrees of warming across the mtns and interior. This
warming will bring max temps away form the nearshore area to 6 to
12 degrees above normal.

Unremarkable weather will follow Tue and Wed with dry NW flow
aloft. At the sfc there will be lgt-mdt offshore flow from the
north and near neutral flow in the E/W direction. Max temps will
not change much over the period.

EC-AI mdl continues to show a storm sometime on the 23/24th time
period.

&&

.AVIATION...11/1104Z.

At 11Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer. There was a surface
based inversion with a top at 2000 feet and 25 Celsius.

There is a 10% chance of LIFR conditions at KLGB KLAX KSMO 13-16Z
today, and a 40% chance on Friday. Otherwise, high confidence in
VFR conditions at all other airports through at least 12Z Friday.

KLAX...There is a 10% chance of LIFR conditions 13-16Z today, and
a 40% chance on Friday. Any east wind component will be less than
7 knots.

KBUR...High confidence in VFR through at least 12Z Friday.

&&

.MARINE...11/839 AM.

High confidence in fairly calm conditions and lowering seas
through this weekend. Some patches of dense fog cannot be ruled
out initially south of Point Conception with coverage expanding
to the northern waters over the weekend.

Gusty NW-W winds will likely return across the Outer waters early
next week with Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds likely south
of Point Conception. Winds will strengthen Wednesday and Thursday,
bringing a 30% chance of GALE force winds from Point Conception
to San Nicolas Island including the western portion of the Santa
Barbara Channel. These winds will likely result in choppy seas.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Rorke
AVIATION...RK
MARINE...Black
SYNOPSIS...Phillips

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox