119
FXUS66 KLOX 081912
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
1112 AM PST Mon Dec 8 2025

.SYNOPSIS...08/231 AM.

Benign weather will continue through the week with only a chance
of morning low clouds and fog along the Los Angeles coast this
morning. A warming trend will continue this week with well above
normal temperatures through next Friday, peaking Tuesday through
Thursday. Offshore flow will produce local canyon winds in the
mornings.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-WED)...08/232 AM.

Srn CA will sit under the east side of east pac ridge through the
short term with hgts near 584 dam (13 dam higher than normal). At
the sfc there will be offshore flow form both the N and S. The
offshore will be near 6 mb offshore from the N and near 3 mb from
the E. There is no upper level support so while there will be
gusty canyon winds each morning they will be mostly under
advisory levels. The one exception will be the Santa Lucia range
in SLO county where advisory level winds will occur this morning
and Tuesday morning. The winds will likely reach advisory levels
across coastal SLO county below the favored passes and canyons.

Some low clouds are likely this morning across the nearshore areas
from Long Beach to KLAX. Dense fog will likely accompany any low
clouds that do form. Skies, otherwise, will be mostly clear
through short term period with the upper high and offshore flow
preventing any cloudiness.

Max temps will be the main issue for the three day period (and Thu
and Fri as well). Offshore flow, hier than normal hgts and sunny
skies will all combine to bring most areas 3 to 6 degrees of
warming today, 2 to 4 degrees on Tue and 1 to 3 degrees on
Wednesday. Today there will be mostly 70s on the csts and upper
70s to mid 80s in the vlys. By Wednesday expect mid 70s to lower
80s across the csts and 80s in the vlys. While these max temps are
impressively 10 to 15 locally 18 degrees above normal they are not
at record levels. Low temps will be mixed bag with the dry air,
clear skies and long nights combining to bring below normal lows
to wind sheltered areas. Windier areas, however, will see slightly
above normal overnight lows.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...08/231 AM.

Medium range mdls and ensembles have the same general idea about
the xtnd fcst and their differences really should not affect the
weather`s outcome much at all.

The ridge will begin to weaken on Thu and this trend will continue
into Fri. More importantly for the forecast for the csts and vlys
the offshore flow will weaken each day and, in fact, will turn
onshore to the east on Friday. Look for two days of slight cooling
across the csts/vlys (1 to 3 degrees each day).

The anticyclonic flow turns cyclonic on Saturday. There will be
onshore flow to the east through the day and only weak offshore
flow from the north. This should bring a return of the coastal
marine layer cloud pattern. It will also bring a noticeable cool
down or 3 to 6 degrees. The cooling trend is forecast to continue
Sunday with another 3 to 5 degrees of cooling across the board.
Despite this cooling max temps will remain above normal esp away
from the coasts.

&&

.AVIATION...08/1911Z.

At 1756Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer. There was a surface-
based inversion up to 1600 feet with a temperature of 20 C.

Moderate to high confidence in KPRB, KSMO, KLAX, and KLGB TAFs.
High confidence in remaining TAFs. There is a 30% chance of VLIFR
to LIFR conditions at KPRB after 10Z Tue, and after 03Z Tue for
KSMO, KLAX, and KLGB.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 30% chance of cigs
arriving as early as 03Z. If cigs do arrive, there is a 40%
chance of TEMPO 1/4SM FG BKN002 conds, otherwise 1/2SM FG to 1SM
BR and BKN002-004 cigs will be common. Any easterly winds will
remain less than 7 knots.

KBUR...High confidence in VFR TAF.

&&

.MARINE...08/847 AM.

Moderate confidence in the current forecast. Slightly higher
confidence exists in the seas forecast relative to winds.

For the outer waters southwest through northwest of the Channel
Islands beyond 10 NM offshore of the Central Coast, there is a
40-60% chance of low-end Small Craft Advisory (SCA) conditions
through early Wednesday, with a 30-40% chance of winds lingering
through the rest of the week. The highest chances will be across
the western portions north of San Nicolas Island during the
afternoon and evening hours.

For the inner waters south of Point Conception and the nearshore
waters along the Central Coast out to 10 NM offshore, there is a
60% percent chance of local northeast SCA level wind gusts from
Ventura to Santa Monica and a 60-70% chance of northeast SCA
winds from near Pismo Beach to Point Piedras Blancas each night
and morning through Tuesday. There is a low-to- moderate (20 to 40
percent) chance of SCA level NE winds once again for the
aforementioned areas Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.
Otherwise, winds and seas should remain below SCA levels.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory remains in effect until 10 AM PST Tuesday for
      zone 342. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 11 AM PST Tuesday for
      zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Wednesday for
      zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Rorke
AVIATION...Lund
MARINE...Hall/Lund
SYNOPSIS...Gomberg

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox