201
FXUS66 KLOX 031048
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
248 AM PST Tue Nov 3 2026

.SYNOPSIS...03/221 AM.

Partly cloudy skies today will turn mostly clear by Wednesday.
Otherwise it will be dry conditions with a general warming trend
and periods of offshore winds through the week. Warmest and
windiest conditions likely Friday-Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-THU)...03/221 AM.

A 560 dam upper low will pass through nrn CA today and drag a
mostly dry front through the Central Coast. Rain chances have been
diminishing with time and now there is less than a 20 percent chc
of rain there. For the rest of the area there will just be partly
cloudy skies. The front will bring 2 to 3 degrees of cooling to
the Central Coast while areas south of Pt Conception will see a
degree or two of warming.

Offshore flow will develop in the wake of today`s system. Sub
advisory level winds will develop through the I-5 corridor and
Santa Ynez range tonight. Northerly winds will continue overnight
into Wednesday morning and then will turn to the NE in the
afternoon. These winds will not reach advisory levels. As is
typical will November offshore flow the interior will cool by 3
to 6 degrees while the csts and vlys will see 2 to 4 degrees of
warming. Still max temps will only end up in the 70s across the
csts and vlys which is 1 to 3 degrees blo normal.

Stronger offshore flow Thursday (2 to 4 mbs) from both the N and E
will bring stronger offshore winds. Low level advisory gusts are
possible across portions of the Central Coast as well the area
close to the VTA/LA county line. The offshore flow and rising hgts
to 578 dam will bring 2 to 4 degrees of warming to all of the
area.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...03/220 AM.

Friday and Saturday will have the strongest winds. Offshore flow
at the sfc will increase to 3 to 4 mb. At the same time a ridge
will nose into Nrn CA and bring some offshore upper level support
to Srn CA. Hgts will be near 584 dam. It looks like there will be
low end advisory gusts from a few miles either side of a line
drawn from Santa Clarita down through Simi Valley and out through
the Pt Mugu area. Skies will be clear through the period. 2 to 4
degrees of warming each day will bring max temps into the lower to
mid 80s across almost all of the csts and vlys.

A large high hgt upper low develops under the ridge on Sunday and
then swings to the east on Monday. This in of itself will not
have too much of an effect on the SoCal weather. The most
important change during this time will be the substantial
weakening of the offshore flow. This along with slight hgt falls
will bring 3 to 5 degrees of cooling over the 2 day period with
Monday`s highs still well above normal in the upper 70s to lower
80s across the csts and vlys.

Looking into the crystal ball the next chc of rain will be Wed/Thu
the 11th or 12th.

&&

.AVIATION...03/1020Z.

At 0832Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer. There was an
elevated inversion between 6000 feet and 8000 feet. The top of
this inversion had a temperature of 14 degrees C.

Moderate confidence in TAFs for KSMX/KSBP/KPRB with 25% chance of
low MVFR cigs 12Z-18Z and 20% of -DZ or -SHRA from 18Z to 24Z.

High confidence in remaining TAFs.

KLAX...High confidence in TAF. High confidence that any east wind
component will remain AOB 6Kt.

KBUR...High confidence in TAF.

&&

.MARINE...03/221 AM.

High confidence in Small Craft Advisory (SCA) west winds quickly
forming this afternoon over most if not all waters south of Point
Conception, including the nearshore waters of the Santa Barbara
Channel and Santa Monica Bay. Short period choppy seas will also
form. High confidence in SCA NW to N winds shifting on Wednesday
to the more traditional areas from the Central Coast to San
Nicolas Island and will continue through Thursday. Short period
choppy seas should be expected most areas through Thursday as a
result.

There is a moderate risk for low-end SCA level NE winds forming
this weekend from Ventura through Santa Monica.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 1 PM this afternoon to 4
      AM PST Wednesday for zones 650-655. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from 8 AM Wednesday to 8 AM
      PST Thursday for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from 1 PM this afternoon to 8
      AM PST Thursday for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Rorke
AVIATION...Rorke
MARINE...RK
SYNOPSIS...Lewis

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox