760
FXUS66 KLOX 190343
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
843 PM PDT Fri Sep 18 2026

.SYNOPSIS...18/627 PM.

A weak upper level trough will move over the area this weekend
into Monday, cooling temperatures slightly and increasing marine
layer stratus. A warming trend will begin Tuesday and peak on
Thursday, with highs 5 to 10 degrees above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM (FRI-MON)...18/843 PM.

***UPDATE***

Once again, another day with sunny skies and high temperatures in
the 70s and 80s. Away from the coast, these temperatures are
anywhere from about 3 to 10 degrees below normal for this time of
year, while at the coast was within the few degrees of normal.
Marine layer clouds are already making a return along the Central
Coast tonight, and forecast to push across the LA Coast
overnight. These clouds will burn off by mid-morning, leading to a
sunny early afternoon. Similar conditions are expected for the
majority of tomorrow, with the exception of high level clouds,
associated with an upper level trough, which will start to move
over the region in the evening tomorrow.

No big changes were needed for the evening forecast update.


***From Previous Discussion***

Our quiet weather pattern will continue at least into early next
week as a weak upper level low slowly moves through the state.
High temperatures will cool 1-3 degrees and low clouds and fog
will eventually return to coastal areas south of Pt Conception,
possibly as early as Saturday in LA County. The upper low will
bring some instability aloft but models are currently indicating
minimal moisture. Still, can`t rule out a chance (5-10%) of a
shower or thunderstorm over the mountains Sunday/Monday.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...18/129 PM.

The upper low is expected to weaken and move east Monday night
leaving behind a weak baggy trough on Tuesday. Probably little
noticeable change in weather conditions Tuesday except possibly a
a degree or two of warming inland.

Beyond that, heights will be rising, though there is some
uncertainty still how much as more than 50% of the current
ensemble solutions maintain a weak trough over the eastern Pacific
into next weekend. However, most of the ensembles also indicate
warming 850 temps as high pressure tries to push into southern
California from AZ. So a warming trend is the most likely outcome
for the second half of next week, with a 20-30% chance of warmer
valley areas reaching the high 90s or possibly 100 by Wednesday or
Thursday. Then little change into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...19/0125Z.

At 1700Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1400 ft deep. The top of
the inversion was at 4300 ft with a temperature of 19 C.

High confidence in VFR conds for KPRB, KPMD & KWJF.

Low to moderate confidence in the remaining sites. The timing of
CIG and any VSBY restrictions may be off +/- 2 hrs and flight
minimums by one category. There is a 40% chance of no low clouds
for KSBP, KOXR and KSBA. For the LA Coastal sites, CIGs may be
periodic or short term.

KLAX...Low to moderate confidence in the 00Z TAF. Return and
dissipation of MVFR CIGs 015 (+/- 300 ft) tonight and Sat morning
may differ by +/- 2 hrs from forecast times. The CIGs may be
intermittent with a 30% chance that no restrictions occur. No
significant east wind component expected.

KBUR...Moderate to high confidence in the 00Z TAF. There is a 20%
chance of low clouds, most likely IFR if they occur. No wind
issues expected.

&&

.MARINE...18/832 PM.

For the outer waters, generally high confidence in the current
forecast. Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds are likely
across all the waters through Sunday night, then for the waters
west and south of Point Conception Sunday night through Monday
night. There is a 40%-50% chance of SCA wind gusts again in these
areas Tuesday night, otherwise conds will be below SCA levels
Tuesday through Wednesday night. Expect steep, choppy seas with
the SCA conditions.

For the inner waters N of Point Sal, moderate to high confidence
in the current forecast. SCA wind gusts are likely during the
afternoons and evenings through Sunday. Conds are then expected to
be below SCA levels late Sunday night through Wednesday night,
although there will still be a 20%-30% chance of occasional SCA
level wind gusts each afternoon and evening.

For the inner waters S of Point Conception, moderate to high
confidence in the current forecast. Conds are expected to be below
SCA levels for the most part through Wednesday night. However,
for the western Santa Barbara Channel, there is a 50-60% chance
of SCA wind gusts Saturday afternoon/evening and again Monday
afternoon/evening.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Sunday for
      zones 645-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM to 9 PM PDT Saturday
      for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Monday for zone
      670. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 5 AM PDT Tuesday for
      zone 673. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/KL
AVIATION...Ciliberti
MARINE...Sirard/Ciliberti
SYNOPSIS...MW/CC

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox