284
FXUS66 KLOX 291626
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
926 AM PDT Fri Aug 29 2025

.SYNOPSIS...29/334 AM.

Temperatures will trend upwards today and Saturday, then remain
well above normal through at least mid next week. Expect a very
warm Labor Day Weekend, with lots of sunshine and dry weather.
Monsoonal thunderstorms will be possible again across the
mountains and deserts stating Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-SUN)...29/923 AM.

***UPDATE***

Morning temperatures are down a little along the central coast
under marine clouds this morning, but up 2-5 degrees in most
other areas in keeping with the warming and drying trend mentioned
in the previous discussion. No impactful changes to the previous
discussion.

***From Previous Discussion***

Monsoonal moisture from the remnants of Tropical Cyclone Juliette
has cleared out of the region, however the marine layer and
associated temperature inversion remains disturbed, making for
mostly clear skies this morning. Low pressure and unsettled
conditions brought by Juliette will transition today to a weak
ridging pattern. Today will be very sunny, especially across LA
and Ventura Counties, with a noticeable warming and drying trend.
500 mb heights are anticipated to trend upwards through early
next week, which will combine with a lack of strong onshore flow
to yield another long duration heat spell. Saturday and Sunday
will see further temperature increases, with highs reaching the
mid 80s to mid 90s across the beaches and coastal plains, and mid
90s to 105 for the valleys and deserts. Heat Advisories will be
possible for some areas (40 percent chance) starting as early as
Saturday.

Northerly wind gusts, up to 30-40 mph, may impact some wind prone
areas tonight and Saturday night, including the western Santa
Ynez Range and adjacent coasts, the Interstate 5 Corridor, and
interior mountain.

Thunderstorms are unlikely through the weekend, however elevated
CAPE today and lingering moisture may result in afternoon cumulus
build ups over the highest mountains of LA and Ventura Counties
this afternoon, with a slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...29/303 AM.

Weak ridging will persist into next week, maintaining well above
normal temperatures across the region. Heat is favored to peak on
Monday or Tuesday, and Heat Advisory products may either be issued
or continued through Wednesday. By Thursday cooling is expected
for the area, as 500 mb heights drop and onshore flow increases.

Monsoonal mositure may return to the region starting Tuesday with
PWATs favored to approach 200 percent of normal across eastern Los
Angeles County. At this time, there is a around a 10 to 20 percent
chance of showers and thunderstorms focused over the Eastern San
Gabriel Mountains the Antelope valley during the afternoons and
evenings, Tuesday through at least Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...29/1046Z.

At 0826Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer. There was a surface
based inversion with a top at 1100 ft and a temperature of 27 C

Low confidence in TAFs-> There is a 20% chance LIFR conds to
arrive at KSBP through 16Z Fri, and a 10% chance after 06Z Sat.
There is a 30% chance for LIFR/IFR conds to return at KSMX after
03Z Sat.

High confidence in remaining TAFs with VFR conditions expected
through forecast period.

KLAX...High confidence in 12Z TAF. Easterly wind component is
expected to remain under 6 knots.

KBUR...High confidence in 12Z TAF.

&&

.MARINE...29/804 AM.

Moderate confidence in NW winds 20-25 kts across the Outer Waters
this afternoon through tonight and for the nearshore waters along
the Central Coast each afternoon and evening through Labor Day.
Higher confidence in NW winds 20-30 kts becoming more widespread
Saturday through Labor Day for the Outer Waters, potentially
continuing into Tuesday. Relative lulls possible in the morning
hours.

Aside from fairly seasonal afternoon and evening localized NW
wind gusts 20-25 kts in the far Western Portion of the Santa
Barbara Channel and 15-20 kts in the San Pedro Channel, light
winds and small seas will be common for the nearshore waters south
of Point Conception.

&&

.BEACHES...29/755 AM.

A long period southerly swell from the Southern Hemisphere will
arrive late Saturday and continue through Monday. Hazardous rip
currents are likely over Labor Day Weekend, especially Saturday
afternoon through Sunday night for Los Angeles and Ventura County
beaches. Elevated surf (up to 6 feet) will be possible at south
and southwest facing beaches during the aforementioned period.

If you are at the beach this Labor Day Weekend, swim near a
lifeguard tower and stay aware of ocean conditions.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 9
      PM PDT this evening for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3
      AM PDT Saturday for zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from 6 PM this evening to 3 AM
      PDT Saturday for zone 676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Schoenfeld/jld
AVIATION...Black
MARINE...Lewis
BEACHES...Lewis
SYNOPSIS...Schoenfeld

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox