611
FXUS66 KLOX 162013
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
113 PM PDT Mon Jun 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...16/113 PM.

High pressure over the region will maintain very warm temperatures
through much of the coming week, especially away from the coast
and across the interior portions of the area. Gusty northerly
winds will develop once again tonight across southern Santa
Barbara County and through the Interstate 5 Corridor. A gradual
cooling trend will develop late in the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-THU)...16/100 PM.

Overall a warm stretch of weather will continue through at least
mid week as a ridge of high pressure sits over the West Coast.
Temperatures trended a little cooler today in most areas as
onshore flow to the east increased which created an earlier sea
breeze. The main exception to that is southern Santa Barbara
County where onshore flow to the north has decreased and has
actually turned offshore. Thus, temperatures there are trending
slightly warmer. And more importantly, the stage is being set for
a moderate Sundowner event tonight and again tomorrow night with
winds gusting to 50 mph through the canyons and passes from late
afternoon through early morning creating some fire weather
concerns. Similar concerns also for the I5 corridor, the Antelope
Valley, and interior SLO County.

Across the region, highs Tue/Wed are expected to be within 3 or
so degrees of today in most areas, except trending more on the
higher side of that across the interior portions of SLO County and
the Antelope Valley as well as southern SB County due to sundowner
winds. For the LA/Ventura County valleys looking for highs in the
90s to around 102. And Downtown LA around 90.

A trough will begin to replace the ridge Thursday that will start
a cooling trend that will carry into the weekend.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...16/110 PM.

A trough of low pressure will continue across the West Coast
Friday and through the weekend and even into early next week
which means much cooler temperatures and increasing marine layer
stratus. High temperatures will drop to 3-6 degrees below normal
area-wide through early next week with a steady dose of night and
morning marine layer that may not fully clear some coastal areas.
Gusty onshore winds will continue across the Antelope Valley each
afternoon and evening.

&&

.AVIATION...16/1642Z.

At 1620Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1000 ft deep. The top of
the inversion was around 4500 ft with a temperature of 26 C.

Moderate confidence in TAFs for KSBP, KSMX, KSMO, KLAX, and KLGB.
There is a chance for IFR cigs at KLAX (20%) and KSMO (15%), and
a 30% chance for KLGB to remain VFR. For KSBP and KSMX, there is a
30% chance for vsbys 1/2SM or less between 10Z and 16Z.

High confidence in remaining TAFs.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 20% chance for cigs
005-010 at KLAX between 09Z and 16Z. There is a 10% chance an
east wind component reach 8 kts between 12Z and 17Z Tue.

KBUR...High confidence in TAF.

&&

.MARINE...16/824 AM.

High confidence in gusty Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level
northwest winds across the Outer Waters and Inner Waters along the
Central coast through the week. Lulls in winds along the Central
Coast are likely in the overnight and early morning hours. A Gale
Warning is in effect for the Outer Waters from this afternoon
through Tuesday night, and for the northern Inner Waters for this
afternoon/evening. Seas will also approach 10 feet at times
through the week. Gale force winds will be possible again by the
end of the week.

Gusty winds for western and southern portions of the Santa
Barbara Channel in the afternoon and evening hours are likely
through Tuesday, with lower confidence thereafter. A Small Craft
Advisory will start this afternoon and lead into a Gale Watch for
Tuesday afternoon/evening, with less impacts expected near Santa
Barbara, Ventura, and Channel Islands Harbors.

Moderate confidence in conditions remaining below advisory levels
in the Inner Waters off the Los Angeles and Orange County coasts
through the week. However, localized WNW SCA level wind gusts may
occur in the afternoon and evening hours near Malibu and through
portions of the San Pedro Channel today and Tuesday.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory remains in effect until 9 AM PDT Tuesday for
      zones 349-351. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PDT this afternoon
      for zones 645-670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Warning in effect until 9 PM PDT this evening for zone
      645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until noon PDT Tuesday for
      zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Watch in effect from Tuesday afternoon through late
      Tuesday night for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Warning in effect until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for zones
      670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...Lewis
MARINE...Lewis/Schoenfeld
SYNOPSIS...Ciliberti

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox