811
FXUS66 KLOX 232317
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
417 PM PDT Thu Jul 23 2026

.SYNOPSIS...23/851 AM.

High pressure anchored over the West will keep a hot air mass in
place through early next week. The hottest temperatures are
expected for late this weekend and through the weekend. Elevated
risk for heat stress and heat illness will continue as the
prolonged hot daytime and warm overnight conditions are expected
through Monday. Gusty northerly winds will continue affect
portions of the area through Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-SUN)...23/239 PM.

A broad upper-level ridge of high pressure, currently centered
over the Borderland region, is starting to shift westward this
afternoon. The ridge will recenter into the Four Corners region
for late week, allowing more influence of the high pressure system
on the weather pattern across the southern California region. 500
mb heights are expected to climb and onshore flow will weaken
some across the region over the next couple of days. The hottest
days are expected today and Friday when the mix of high heights
combine with weakening onshore pressure gradients. 950 mb
temperatures will warm by a degree or two each day through
Saturday.

There is a moderate to high risk of heat illness over the next
several days. A heat advisory remains in place for a majority of
the coastal, valley, and mountain areas, while an extreme heat
warning is in effect for the Antelope Valley floor. As the region
sits on the edge of higher heat risk to the east, there is a
moderate to high (30-50 percent) chance that localized extreme
heat warning criteria could be met on Friday when the warmest
temperatures are forecast. For those sensitive to the heat, such
as the very young, the very old, those without air conditioning,
and those active or working outdoors, the risk for heat illness is
high.

A tighter northwesterly surface difference across the state will
bring another round of Sundowner winds across the region late
this afternoon through tonight. Breezy to gusty northwest to north
winds across southern Santa Barbara County will develop tonight
with the strongest winds expected again across the southwestern
portion of the county. Motorists driving on area roadways,
especially on Highway 101 between Gaviota and Goleta, should be
aware of gusty cross winds that could develop and make driving
difficult.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...23/239 PM.

High pressure aloft will shift back to the east early next week
and allow for some cooling. Stronger onshore flow should develop
and bring a return of night through morning low clouds and fog to
the coastal areas. 500 mb heights drop into mid week next week.
Enough cooling should develop to bring down the heat advisories by
Monday.

The main wrinkle could end being an easterly wave propagating
under the ridge over the weekend. Some of the solutions push some
moisture over the region, but the main question is enough energy
will be present. A low but non-zero threat of monsoon convection
will remain in the forecast over the mountains through the
weekend.

High pressure aloft will remain in place and keep above normal
temperatures in place through next week. Another round heat could
develop for the end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...23/2306Z.

At 2159Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 800 ft deep. The top of
the inversion was at 2700 ft with a max temperature of 28 C.

Moderate confidence in KPRB, KSMX, & KSBP.

KPRB: 15% chance of brief LIFR CIGs from  24/10Z-14Z.
KSBP: 40% chance of LIFR/IFR CIGs from 24/03Z-11Z.
KSMX: 60% chance of LIFR CIGs from 24/08Z-15Z.

High confidence in VFR conditions for remaining sites.

KLAX...High confidence in VFR TAF. No significant east wind
component expected.

KBUR...High confidence in VFR TAF. No wind issues expected.

&&

.MARINE...23/1203 PM.

Gale Force wind gusts will impact the outer waters this afternoon
through late night, and there is a 30% chance of winds
restrengthening to Gale Force levels each day across the outer
waters north of the Channel Islands through Sunday. Otherwise,
widespread Small Craft Advisory (SCA) NW winds will likely
continue through the weekend across the Outer Waters, with seas
nearing 10 ft at times. SCA winds will spread into the nearshore
waters along the Central Coast and Santa Barbara Channel at times
through the forecast period.

&&

.BEACHES...23/1203 PM.

A long period, southern hemisphere swell will arrive later this
week and will add to the continuing swell from Hurricane Fausto.
This swell will result in an increased risk of dangerous rip
currents across the coastal beaches, as well as elevated surf of
3-6 ft across the Los Angeles and Ventura County Beaches.
Therefore, Beach Hazard Statements are in effect through the
weekend for Los Angeles and Ventura County beaches and the Central
Coast beaches. Rip currents and elevated surf will be strongest
across south to southwest facing beaches and harbors such as Avila
Beach.

The Eastern Pacific looks to remain active with tropical systems
over the next couple of weeks. This could result in additional
southerly swells to impact the coastline.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Heat Advisory remains in effect until 8 PM PDT Monday for
      zones 38-88-342>345-348>358-362-366>382-548. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Beach Hazards Statement in effect from Friday afternoon
      through Sunday evening for zones 340-346. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     Wind Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Friday for zones
      349-351. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Beach Hazards Statement in effect through Sunday evening for
      zones 354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     Extreme Heat Warning in effect until 8 PM PDT Monday for zone
      383. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Saturday for
      zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Friday for zone
      650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PDT this evening
      for zone 655. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Warning in effect until 3 AM PDT Friday for zones
      670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 AM Friday to 3 AM PDT
      Saturday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Hall
AVIATION...Black
MARINE...Lund/Black
BEACHES...Lund/Black
SYNOPSIS...Hall

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox