880
FXUS66 KLOX 132147
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
247 PM PDT Thu Aug 13 2026

.SYNOPSIS...13/246 PM.

A cooler weather pattern with night through morning low clouds and
fog will linger into Saturday as a weak trough of low pressure
remains along the Central Coast of California. A warming trend
will begin over the weekend as high pressure to the east
gradually expands over the region. Temperatures will remain below
normal through at least Sunday then warm above normal by Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-SUN)...13/246 PM.

A weak upper-level trough continues to move over the region today.
Low clouds have struggled to clear from the Central Coast this
afternoon. The weak upper-level trough will continue to bring
a cooler weather pattern with continued night through morning low
clouds and fog. Night through morning drizzle cannot be ruled out
tonight and into Sunday as enough instability remains in place
with the trough axis just to the west the Central Coast to
interact with the deep marine layer in place. Very slight chance
PoPs are in the forecast for some areas tonight and into Friday
morning to account for night through morning drizzle.

With the trough in place along the Central Coast, there is a very
slight chance of an afternoon or evening shower or thunderstorm,
primarily over the Santa Barbara or Ventura County mountains.
Instability with the trough combined with leftover monsoonal
moisture could pop a shower over the higher terrain.

The trough will start to weaken over the coming days and 500 mb
heights will climb into the weekend. The marine layer depth will
start to shrink on Saturday as onshore flow weakens. Temperatures
will gradually warm through the weekend as high pressure aloft
starts to press down on top of the marine layer. Low clouds will
start to retract from the valleys area and become confined to the
coast.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...13/246 PM.

The latest forecast ensembles suggest a steady warming trend taking
place through at least Tuesday as 500 mb heights climb to near
594-595 decameters. Any night through morning low clouds and fog
should become confined to the coast by Sunday or Monday.
Temperatures should approach August during this time. After
Tuesday, the spread ensemble member solutions diverge some. Two of
the cluster analysis panels suggest a warming trend continuing,
while one of the panel would bring some cooling.

A northerly surface pressure gradient could develop between
Sunday and Tuesday. Gusty northerly winds could develop across
southern Santa Barbara County and through the Interstate 5
Corridor. Advisory level Sundowner winds could develop during this
time, but there is some uncertainty in the timing and the actual
strength of the winds.

&&

.AVIATION...13/2025Z.

At 1612Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 2900 feet deep. The top of
the inversion was near 4500 feet with a temperature of 18 C.

High confidence in VFR TAFs for desert airfields (KPMD & KWJF).

Moderate confidence in remaining TAFs. Timing of change groups
may be off +/- 2 hours. Expecting "little" (less than 6 hrs) to
no clearing of MVFR CIGs 015 to 030 excluding KBUR/KVNY.

No clearing is most likely for KSBP, KSMX, & KSBA (80% chance).

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. Clearing of MVFR CIGs 025-030
likely around 13/20Z. MVFR CIGs expected to return around 14/01Z
(+/- 3 hours). There is 30% chance of no clearing. No significant
east wind component expected.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. No wind issues expected.

&&

.MARINE...13/1248 PM.

High confidence that conditions will remain below Small Craft
Advisory (SCA) criteria across all coastal waters through Friday
morning. Low to moderate chances for SCA winds across favored
areas south of Point Conception this weekend. Increasing chances
across all coastal waters heading into next week, with local
gusts of 30-35 kt possible at times around Point Conception.
Seas may approach 10 ft across portions of the Outer Waters
Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Hall
AVIATION...Black
MARINE...Black
SYNOPSIS...Hall

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox