709
FXUS66 KLOX 252109
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
209 PM PDT Fri Sep 25 2026

.SYNOPSIS...25/211 AM.

High temperatures will remain above normal through Saturday with
areas of low clouds and fog each morning. Substantial cooling
is expected Sunday and Monday.  Beach impacts from Tropical
Cyclone Polo are possible Monday and Tuesday in the form of high
surf and possible beach erosion. A significant warming trend is
expected Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-MON)...25/153 PM.

As expected temperatures today were generally within a few degrees
of yesterday. The marine layer is hanging on along the beaches
south of Pt Conception otherwise skies were mostly clear with just
a few clouds over the mountain peaks.

There have been no significant changes to the 7 day forecast. A
light northeast gradient will develop later tonight into Saturday,
a sort of mini Santa Ana, mainly just impacting LA/Ventura coast
and valleys with temperatures 3-6 degrees warmer than today.
Highs near 90 are expected in Downtown LA and near 100 in the
warmer valleys. No winds of significance expected. Most
everywhere else across the 4 county area will experience 2-5
degrees of cooling Saturday.

There remains quite a bit of uncertainty in the forecast Sunday
through early next week due to the two strong hurricanes (Polo and
Odalys) in the eastern Pacific and the uncertainties with their
evolution and respective tracks. There is high confidence in
several degrees of cooling Sunday and Monday as most models bring
an upper level trough California. And while most of the hurricane
models are in pretty good agreement keeping the storms well south
of California, there is a window of opportunity Sunday night into
Monday for some mid level moisture to move into the area and
create a few light showers south of Pt Conception. The biggest
impacts locally are still expected to be confined to the beaches
with increasing swells from the hurricanes, though this is also
quite uncertain pending the ultimate track of both hurricanes.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...25/208 PM.

Pretty big uncertainty in the weather forecast Tue and beyond.
More than 50% of the models are indicating high pressure building
over the state with a fairly substantial warming trend through at
least Thursday. There`s at least a 30-40 percent chance of near
100 degree temperatures in the valleys and similar chances for
Downtown LA and San Luis Obispo reaching 90 or higher. There`s
also a lower but still significant chance of temperatures 5-10
degrees cooler than that. Will have to wait to see how the
hurricanes track before having much confidence in the longer
range.

&&

.AVIATION...25/1628Z.

At 16Z over KLAX, the marine layer was 1400 ft deep. The top of
the inversion was at 3000 feet with a temperature of 24 Celsius.

High confidence in VFR conditions through at least Saturday for
KPRB, KPMD, and KWJF.

High confidence in clearing at all sites by 19Z today.

For tonight into tomorrow: LIFR/IFR conditions possible at KSBP
(20%) and KSMX (60%). IFR/MVFR conditions possible at KOXR (30%),
KCMA (30%), KSMO (50%), KLAX (70%), KLGB (70%), KBUR (30%), KVNY
(20%). Moderate confidence in timing (plus or minus 3 hours).

High confidence in typical winds.

KLAX...VFR conditions likely to start 17-18Z. There is a 20%
chance of brief MVFR ceilings 23-03Z. There is a 70% chance of
OVC008-012 tonight, low-moderate confidence on timing. High
confidence in any east winds staying under 8 knots.

KBUR...MVFR HZ possible through 20Z, otherwise high confidence in
VFR conditions through at least 10Z. There is a 30% chance of IFR
ceilings 12-16Z on Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...25/1240 PM.

Through this weekend, moderate confidence Small Craft Advisory
(SCA) winds and steep seas affecting the outer waters of the
Central Coast. Winds will be strongest this evening, when the
nearshore waters along the Central coast will see brief SCA
conditions.

High confidence in widespread gusty winds Monday into Tuesday over
most of the coastal waters, including nearshore. SCA likely
everywhere, with a moderate risk for Gales between Point Sal and
San Nicolas Island.

Southerly swells from Hurricanes Odalys and Polo will affect the
region this weekend through the middle of next week. These swells
will create larger waves nearshore, which could impact some harbor
entrances, especially Sunday through Tuesday.

Some dense fog is possible on the Central Coast this weekend.

&&

.BEACHES...25/1240 PM.

Southerly swells from Hurricanes Odalys and Polo will affect the
region this weekend through the middle of next week. This is a
very complicated scenario with two hurricanes so close in
proximity, with one of them (Odalys) poorly handled by our
computer models. Another complexity is the relatively short window
of time that Polo is far enough to the west for its waves to have
a clear path towards southern California. This means that the
swells will have a sharp peak and narrow window of time to line up
with the high tides. Lastly, some south-facing shores are extra
vulnerable because of the lingering erosion effects of Hurricane
Marie from earlier this month.

While the surf heights will likely range in the 4 to 7 foot range
for south facing beaches at times Sunday through Tuesday, there
is a plus or minus in that potential of 2 feet or so due to the
complications mentioned above. High tides will steadily build
each day and peak Monday and Tuesday, likely reaching around 7
feet (MLLW) - which is higher by almost a foot over astronomical
tides due to ongoing effects of El Nino.

There is a significant concern for Coastal Flooding over
vulnerable south-facing beaches as a result, but the magnitude is
still uncertain. The areas of most concern include Avalon, Long
Beach, Malibu and Santa Barbara. The reasonable worst-case
scenario is for impacts similar the Hurricane Marie from earlier
this month, but the most likely outcome is for impacts to be a
step less. The one exception being Avalon on Catalina Island, as
the swells from Hurricane Polo will be more from a southeasterly
direction than with Marie, which they are more exposed to. The
same goes for Santa Barbara Harbor, but being the furthest away
from the Hurricane, the risk is less but still present.

South-facing beaches should plan for shallow flooding of seawater
over low lying beach walkways, parking lots, and roads as well as
potential for significant beach erosion. Very localized damage to
structures is also possible in the most vulnerable areas. With
all that stated, there is a potential that impacts are minimal if
the lower-end surf outcome materializes.

Due to rather high uncertainity, have went with Beach Hazard
Statements from Now through Wednesday afternoon. This covers the
coastline from Santa Barbara South coast down to LA county which
includes Catalina island. A decision to upgrade to Coastal Flood
Advisory will be made Saturday or Sunday. Refer to CFWLOX for more
details.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement in effect through Wednesday afternoon
      for zones 87-349-350-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PDT this evening
      for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 AM PDT Sunday for
      zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...RK
MARINE...RK/DB
BEACHES...RK/DB
SYNOPSIS...MW/Ciliberti

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox