204
FXUS66 KLOX 162058
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
158 PM PDT Wed Jul 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...16/115 PM.

There will be a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
Thursday into Friday across eastern Los Angeles County.
Otherwise, night through morning low clouds and patchy fog will
continue for the coasts and most valleys through the weekend.
Below normal temperatures are expected into early next week,
though a slow warming trend will develop Thursday and Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT)...16/150 PM.

For most areas the weather through Saturday will be benign with
temperatures a few degrees below normal. Night through morning low
clouds and fog will continue as well, though some lowering of the
inversion may prevent clouds from getting as far inland as they
have the last few mornings.

However, models are indicating monsoon moisture will be entering
the area from the southeast, particularly later Thursday into
Friday and parts of LA County may experience some showers or
thunderstorms as early as Thursday afternoon. Initially any
precipitation is expected to be confined to the higher terrain of
the eastern San Gabriel Mountains. CAPE values around 600-800J/km
could be enough to trigger an isolated storm or two there.
Although steering flow is very light, chances for any flooding
rains is under 5% as most of the moisture is at higher levels.

Then going into Thursday night into Friday morning, an upper low
will be approaching from the south, bring increasing moisture and
instability to mainly eastern LA County, including the San
Gabriel Valley and smaller chances as far west as the coast.
Forecast soundings show PW`s increasing to as high as 1.5 inches
later Thursday night into Friday. Steering flow remains light and
moisture is expected to increase at lower levels down to around
800mb. Because of these factors, chances for flooding rain will be
slightly higher, but still under 10% and mostly in the mountains.

By Friday afternoon any showers and/or storms will likely be
confined to the eastern LA mountains.

Conditions Saturday will be back to normal with no showers or
thunderstorms expected.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...16/158 PM.

Very quiet weather expected Sunday through the middle of next
week with just minor day to day variations. Temperatures are
expected to remain slightly below normal in most areas with
continued night and morning low clouds and fog across coast and
most valleys. Most of the longer range models are indicating a
warming trend at the end of next week but nothing too dramatic and
not likely worthy of heat hazards.

&&

.AVIATION...16/1638Z.

At 1630Z at KLAX, the marine layer 2100 ft deep. The top of the
marine inversion was at 6300 feet with a temperature of 20 C.

For 18Z TAF package, high confidence in KPMD and KWJF.

For all other sites, moderate confidence in 18Z TAFs. Timing of
flight category changes could be +/- 2 hours of current forecasts.
There is a 30% chance that SCT conditions do not develop this
afternoon for KSBA, KOXR, KSMO and KLAX.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in 18Z TAF. Timing of flight category
changes could be +/- 2 hours of current forecasts. There is a 30%
chance that SCT conditions will not develop this afternoon. No
significant easterly wind component is expected.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in 18Z TAF. Timing of flight category
changes could be +/- 2 hours of current forecasts.

&&

.MARINE...16/1143 AM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current
forecast. Tonight through Thursday, high confidence in winds and
seas remaining below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels. For Friday
through Monday, there is a 30-50% chance of SCA level winds,
especially across PZZ673/676.

For the Inner Waters, high confidence in current forecast. Tonight
through Monday, winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA
levels for all of the Inner Waters.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...RAT
MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...MW

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox