516
FXUS66 KLOX 142208
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
208 PM PST Fri Nov 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...14/153 PM.

An unusually strong storm system will bring widespread rain to the
area through Sunday. The period of most concern is tonight through
Saturday Night when a large area of heavy rain and isolated but
potentially severe thunderstorms will bring a moderate to high
risk of significant flash flooding, debris flows, and damaging
winds. After a very brief break, another storm will bring light to
moderate rain to the area Monday into Tuesday. Yet another storm
is possible for Thursday into Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-MON)...14/204 PM.

...MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODING, DEBRIS
FLOWS, AND DAMAGING WINDS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

POTENTIAL IMPACTS:
The period of most concern is tonight through Saturday Night.
During this time, folks should be prepared for ample traffic
incidents, delays, and a few road closures. This includes a few
flooded roads, freeway lanes, and on ramps and off ramps. Canyon
roads, especially the most vulnerable ones like Topanga Canyon,
will likely see mudslide and rockslides. In and near recent burn
scars, at least shallow debris flows will occur which would impact
roads, with a moderate risk of significant flows blocking or
damaging roads and impacting structures. This includes the
Palisades, Eaton, and Bridge burn areas which have the highest
threat. In creeks and rivers, the flows will be heavy with anyone
in or near those channels at risk of being swept away. There will
be an area of heaviest rain, but we do not know for sure exactly
where that will be. Wherever it sets up, expect all these impacts
to be amplified, including a risk for a neighborhood or two
experiencing shallow water spilling into businesses and homes. In
addition to the water risks, there is a significant threat for
severe thunderstorms capable of producing very localized but
damaging winds and or a brief tornado.

WHAT YOU CAN DO:
Avoid the roads, stay indoors as much as possible, and stay aware
of your environment. If you have to drive, allow extra time as
traffic will be increased due to slippery roads, low visibility,
and localized flooding. If you are near a burn scar, heed the
advice of local officials as they know your area best. Reschedule
and avoid outdoor activities. If you are outside and hear thunder,
see lightning, experience sudden wind shifts, or a sudden
increase in rain intensity, head indoors immediately and stay away
from windows. Stay out of, and far away from, any streams,
rivers, and canyons - especially campers. Avoid parking near tall
trees. Be ready for sudden power outages. Boaters, please stay in
safe harbor. For everyone, stay tuned to your local news outlet
and weather.gov for any updates.

UPDATED DETAILS:
The core of the storm system has cutoff from the jet stream, and
is now spinning around as it pleases. While there remains some
uncertainty in terms of timing and placement of the heaviest rain
as a result, all available guidances remain locked in for an
increase in rain coverage and intensity tonight through Saturday
Night. Peak rain rates during this period of most concern will
likely be in the 0.5 to 1.0 inch per hour range over a large
portion of our area, with 0.25 to 0.50 inches per hour elsewhere.
When considering the rain we have already seen and will continue
to see today, which should precondition the ground and lower the
bar of what sort of additional heavy rain is needed to trigger
flash flooding, the risk for significant and potentially damaging
flooding continues to be moderate to high with the expected rain
rates. The current Flood Watches look good and there are no
immediate plans for changes. In terms of the severe weather
threat, we continue to see a number of parameters favoring
supercell thunderstorms capable of producing localized damaging
winds and or a brief tornado. This include updraft helicity, which
the HREF suite of models all point to Los Angeles County having
the highest risk with values that are about as high as we have
seen for this area. This does not guarantee a tornado, and 99% of
the population will NOT see these conditions, but the risk exists
for a very localized high impact situation.

There will be a very noticeable break in the steady widespread
nature of the rain Saturday Night, but scattered off and on again
light to moderate showers will remain over the area through
Sunday. The highest chances are over eastern Los Angeles County
and northern SLO County Saturday Night, then really anywhere on
Sunday. Any additional impacts will be minor.

The break will be brief as the next storm will start to impact the
area Sunday Night, first over San Luis Obispo County then pushing
south into Los Angeles County on Monday. After a cold front brings
light to moderate rain with minor impacts, there is a good chance
for the core of the system to move through the area Monday Night
and Tuesday keeping showers going and possibly bringing some snow
levels down to 5,000 feet. The BIG different between this storm
and our current storm is that the Tuesday system will not cut off
but will remain plugged into the jet. This means it will move
through fairly quickly which means rain amounts and impacts will
be on the lower end.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...14/206 PM.

There should be a break in the rain on Wednesday, but yet another
storm will be in the window Wednesday through Friday. This one
carries much more uncertainity that Monday`s storm, as really
anything is on the table between no rain and a lot of rain.
Cooler than normal conditions will remain.

&&

.AVIATION...14/1700Z.

At 1650Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer. However, there was a
deep moist layer up to 10000 feet.

Overall, low confidence in 18Z TAF package. High confidence in
periods of rain for all sites through the period, but low
confidence in timing of flight category changes (and the flight
categories themselves). CIGs and VSBYs will vary from VFR levels
down to IFR through the period.

There is a 20-30% chance of thunderstorms for TAF sites south of
Point Conception after 22Z. Any thunderstorms will be capable of
producing heavy rain, frequent lightning and gusty/erratic outflow
winds.

KLAX...Low confidence in 18Z TAF. High confidence in varying
intensities of rainfall through the period. However, low
confidence in timing of flight category changes as well as the
flight categories themselves. MVFR conditions most likely through
this evening with IFR conditions becoming more likely overnight.
Through 11Z...there is a 50-60% chance of easterly winds above
8 knots...then a 60-80% chance of easterly winds above 10 knots
11Z-17Z.

KBUR...Low confidence in 18Z TAF. High confidence in varying
intensities of rainfall through the period. However, low
confidence in timing of flight category changes as well as the
flight categories themselves. MVFR conditions most likely through
this evening with IFR conditions becoming more likely overnight.

&&

.MARINE...14/1248 PM.

There is a 20-30% chance of thunderstorms across the coastal
waters south of Point Conception from late this afternoon through
Saturday night. Any thunderstorms that develop will be capable of
producing brief heavy rain, dangerous cloud to surface lightning,
gusty and erratic winds, locally rough seas and possible
waterspouts.

For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current
forecast. Today through Saturday morning, high confidence in
Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level seas and a 20% chance of SCA
level seas. From Saturday afternoon through Sunday, high
confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. For
Monday and Tuesday, high confidence in SCA level seas with a
30-40% chance of SCA level winds. For Wednesday, high confidence
in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. Today through Saturday morning,
high confidence in SCA level seas. For Saturday afternoon through
Sunday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA
levels. For Monday through Tuesday, high confidence in SCA level
seas with a 30-40% chance of SCA level winds on Monday. For
Tuesday through Wednesday, high confidence in winds and seas
remaining below SCA levels.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. Moderate confidence in SCA level
southeast winds tonight and Saturday morning across PZZ655 with
conditions expected to remain below SCA levels elsewhere. For
Saturday afternoon through Sunday, high confidence in winds and
seas remaining below SCA levels. On Monday, there is a 60-80%
chance of SCA level winds across all the southern Inner Waters.
For Tuesday through Wednesday, high confidence in winds and seas
remaining below SCA levels.

&&

.BEACHES...14/1248 PM.

A moderately long period west-northwest swell will bring
hazardous surf conditions to portions of Southwest California
today through at least Saturday morning. In addition to the
west-northwest swell, a storm system will bring gusty southerly
winds which will add a southerly wind swell component to the surf.
HIGH SURF ADVISORIES remain in effect for the Central Coast and
the Ventura county beaches. Please refer to the LAXCFWLOX and
LAXSRFLOX for details.

There is a 20-30% chance that HIGH SURF ADVISORIES may be needed
for the LA county beaches today and tonight.

Additionally, there is a 20-30% chance of thunderstorms across
all the beaches at times from late this afternoon through
Saturday night. Any thunderstorms that form will be capable of
producing locally strong winds, small hail, dangerous lightning,
heavy rainfall, and possibly even a weak/brief tornado.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Flood Watch now in effect from 1 AM PST Saturday through
      Saturday evening for zones
      87-88-346>358-362-366>383-548>550. (See LAXFFALOX).
     High Surf Advisory in effect until 9 AM PST Saturday for
      zones 340-346-354. (See LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Saturday for
      zones 645-670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PST this afternoon
      for zones 650-655. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Kittell
AVIATION...RAT
MARINE...RAT
BEACHES...RAT
SYNOPSIS...RK

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox