829
FXUS66 KLOX 182029
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
129 PM PDT Fri Sep 18 2026

.SYNOPSIS...18/1257 PM.

A weak upper level trough will move over the area this weekend
into Monday, cooling temperatures slightly and increasing marine
layer stratus. A warming trend will begin Tuesday and peaking
Thursday with highs 5 to 10 degrees above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-MON)...18/107 PM.

Our quiet weather pattern will continue at least into early next
week as a weak upper level low slowly moves through the state.
High temperatures will cool 1-3 degrees and low clouds and fog
will eventually return to coastal areas south of Pt Conception,
possibly as early as Saturday in LA County. The upper low will
bring some instability aloft but models are currently indicating
minimal moisture. Still, can`t rule out a chance (5-10%) of a
shower or thunderstorm over the mountains Sunday/Monday.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...18/129 PM.

The upper low is expected to weaken and move east Monday night
leaving behind a weak baggy trough on Tuesday. Probably little
noticeable change in weather conditions Tuesday except possibly a
a degree or two of warming inland.

Beyond that, heights will be rising, though there is some
uncertainty still how much as more than 50% of the current
ensemble solutions maintain a weak trough over the eastern Pacific
into next weekend. However, most of the ensembles also indicate
warming 850 temps as high pressure tries to push into southern
California from AZ. So a warming trend is the most likely outcome
for the second half of next week, with a 20-30% chance of warmer
valley areas reaching the high 90s or possibly 100 by Wednesday or
Thursday. Then little change into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...18/1745Z.

At 1700Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 3700 ft deep. The top of
the inversion was at 5100 ft with a temperature of 16 C.

High confidence in VFR TAFs for KPRB, KBUR, KVNY, KPMD & KWJF.

For the remainder of the airfields, timing of CIG and any VSBY
restrictions may be off +/- 2 hrs and flight minimums by one
category.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. Return and dissipation of MVFR
CIGs 015 (+/- 300 ft) tonight and Sat morning should be accurate
within +/- 2 hrs of fcst. No significant east wind component
expected.

KBUR...Generally hi confidence in TAF. No wind issues expected.

&&

.MARINE...18/117 PM.

For the outer waters, generally high confidence in the current
forecast. Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds are likely
across all the waters through Sunday afternoon, then for the
waters west and south of Point Conception Sunday night through
Monday night. There is a 40%-50% chance of SCA wind gusts again in
these areas Tuesday night, otherwise conds will be below SCA
levels Tuesday through Wednesday night. Expect steep, choppy seas
with the SCA conditions.

For the inner waters N of Point Sal, generally high confidence in
the current forecast. SCA wind gusts are likely during the
afternoons and evenings through Sunday. Conds are then expected
to be below SCA levels late Sunday night through Wednesday night,
although there will still be a 20%-30% chance of occasional SCA
level wind gusts at times each afternoon and evening.

For the inner waters S of Point Conception, moderate to high
confidence in the current forecast. Conds are expected to be below
SCA levels for the most part through Wednesday night. However,
for the western Santa Barbara Channel, there is a 50% chance of
SCA wind gusts Saturday afternoon/evening and again Monday
afternoon/evening.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Sunday for
      zones 645-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 5 PM PDT Sunday for zone
      670. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 5 AM PDT Tuesday for
      zone 673. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...Sirard
MARINE...Sirard
SYNOPSIS...MW

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox