036
FXUS66 KLOX 160815
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
115 AM PDT Sun Aug 16 2026

.SYNOPSIS...16/1259 AM.

Night through morning marine layer clouds will continue for the
coast and lowers valleys, shrinking in coverage each day into
next week. Cooler than normal temperatures continue today, then
warmer than normal temperatures return this week, with widespread
moderate Heat Risk potentially occurring away from the immediate
coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-TUE)...16/114 AM.

The warming trend is well on track through much of this coming
week, with heat likely peaking Tuesday-Thursday. 500 mb heights
will continue to increase gradually through Tuesday before
plateauing as the large area of high pressure across the Southern
United States marches westward. This combined with weakening
onshore flow will swing temperatures right back up to around 5-10
degrees above seasonal normals by Tuesday. Overnight temperatures
will increase each day as well with most areas south of Point
Conception seeing lows drop down to only the mid 60s to low 70s.
Fairly widespread moderate Heat Risk will be common away from the
immediate coastal areas starting Tuesday, with moderate chances
for fairly widespread Heat Advisories away from the immediate
coastal areas.

Tonight`s marine layer has filled in nicely across the Central
coast up against the foothills, but it has been very patchy south
of Point Conception. Expecting low clouds to fill in across coasts
and lower coastal valleys this morning, with decreasing spatial
extent over the next few days as the marine layer gets
"squished". Marine layer clouds will likely be confined to
coastal areas by Monday/Tuesday, potentially as early as tonight.
The marine layer will help keep temperatures at immediate coastal
areas moderate during the warm up.

Northerly winds will begin increasing tonight across southwest
Santa Barbara County as well as interior mountain areas,
especially the Grapevine. While winds are expected to remain sub-
advisory levels, there is a moderate chance for winds to reach
advisory criteria in portions of southwest Santa Barbara County
Monday night. These increasing winds across southwestern SB
County may also delay or completely hinder the formation of marine
layer clouds across the south coast of the county as well as
Ventura County. If the marine layer does in fact not develop over
these areas, temperatures could be warmer than advertised.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...16/114 AM.

Upper level ridging will continue to bring warm and dry
conditions to Southwest California through the work work. Onshore
flow will also be its weakest Wednesday through at least Friday.
The resulting widespread Moderate Heat Risk will also lead to a
moderate chance for heat headlines away from the coast through at
least Thursday, but increasing model agreement for Friday brings
it into play as well. The marine layer will likely be confined
just to the immediate coastal areas, and there is a small chance
that dense fog will occur as the marine layer depth will be quite
shallow.

While winds aren`t expected to be of any widespread significance,
the increasing northerly pressure gradient will allow for gusty
north to northwest winds are likely each night across the
interior mountains (especially the Grapevine), deserts, and
southwest Santa Barbara County. While widespread advisory level
winds aren`t likely in the extended period either, there is a
chance for portions of southwest SB County to reach advisory
levels. As in the short term, increasing northerly winds across
southwestern SB County could disrupt the formation of marine
layer clouds across the south coast of the county as well as
Ventura County. Again, this could result in warmer temps along the
coasts.

Next weekend still maintains some uncertainty in the evolution of
the upper pattern. Cluster analysis still shows fairly similar
chances of weak troughing setting up along the coast vs the ridge
maintaining its position out west. Suffice to say confidence from
Saturday on is fairly low. While the former solution favor a
cooling trend, the latter favor continued hot weather and even a
small chance for monsoonal convection.

&&

.AVIATION...16/0537Z.

At 2346Z at KLAX, the marine layer was at 1400 feet deep. The top
of the inversion was near 2500 feet with a temperature of 24 C.

High confidence in VFR TAFs for KPMD & KWJF.

Low to moderate confidence in remaining TAFs, lowest south of
Point Conception. Arrival of cigs for current VFR sites be off
+/- 3 hours and 30% chance KSBA/KBUR/KVNY may remain VFR. 40%
chance for IFR cigs KBUR/KVNY, low chances elsewhere. KSMX/KSBP
may remain MVFR or higher. Patchy marine layer will also cause
conds to bounce between VFR and MVFR/IFR. Arrival of cigs at end
of period may be off +/- 4 hours.

KLAX...Low to moderate confidence in TAF. SCT to OVC conds likely
through 12Z, then OVC likely with VFR transition sometime from
16Z-20Z. 10% chance for brief IFR cigs tonight. Arrival of cigs
Sunday may be off +/- 4 hours from TAF. 30% chance of IFR conds
late Sunday. No significant east wind component expected.

KBUR...Low confidence in TAF. 30% chance VFR conds prevail. 40%
chance for 005-009 cigs when cigs arrive..

&&

.MARINE...15/1024 PM.

Moderate to high confidence in forecast. Current Small Craft
Advisory (SCA) for gusty winds over the outer waters from near
Point Conception southward to San Nicolas Island and in the
vicinity of the Channel Islands looks on track. May see a lull in
these winds early Sunday morning, but winds will quickly rebuild
late Sunday morning into the afternoon.

Good chance for SCA winds to be ongoing Sunday afternoon/evening
through much of the week over the outer waters, with SCA winds
expanding into the northern outer waters Monday afternoon/evening.
Tuesday and Wednesday, local gale force gusts will be possible.

For the inner waters, SCA winds are possible during the afternoon
to evening hours for the Santa Barbara Channel Sunday and for the
Santa Barbara Channel and inner waters north of Point Sal Monday
and Tuesday. Wednesday looks more favorable for SCA winds for the
inner waters north of Point Sal. Local gusts near 25 kt are
possible for portions of PZZ655 Sunday evening and Monday evening.

Building short period seas are expected, likely rising to around
7-8 feet over the outer waters.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 2
      AM PDT Monday for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 AM PDT Monday for
      zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Lewis
AVIATION...Lewis
MARINE...Phillips/Ciliberti
SYNOPSIS...Lewis

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox