293
FXUS66 KLOX 040431
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
831 PM PST Tue Nov 3 2026

.SYNOPSIS...03/221 AM.

Partly cloudy skies today will turn mostly clear by Wednesday.
Otherwise it will be dry conditions with a general warming trend
and periods of offshore winds through the week. Warmest and
windiest conditions likely Friday-Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-THU)...03/821 PM.

***UPDATE***

A rapidly weakening cold front pushing in from the northwest has
brought scattered light showers to the Central Coast, that will
last through the evening. Accumulations have been light, well
under 0.10 inches. Otherwise forecast remains on track.

***From Previous Discussion***

Partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected today with
temperatures slightly below normal with widespread upper 60s to
mid 70s.

A prolonged period (up to a week) of weak to moderate offshore flow
(LAX-DAG pressure gradient peaking somewhere between -3 to -6
each morning) will set up in the wake of the system. Peak wind
gusts of 20 to 40 mph will be common for interior mountains
filtering down into coastal ranges (such as Santa Ynez and Santa
Lucias), valleys and foothills at times through Thursday. This is
mostly sub- advisory, although there is a 20 percent chance that
low end advisories will be needed at times. A low end Santa Ana
Wind event may materialize by Friday with early estimates placing
widespread peak wind gusts in the 25 to 45 mph range (strongest in
the mountains) and teetering on advisory levels within the
typical Santa Ana cooridor.

Warming and drying trends will take hold by Thursday and likely
continue into the weekend thanks to the offshore flow and a moderate
ridge (peaking near 585 dm) building overhead. Moderate heat risk
with targeted Heat Advisories may be needed near the coast as early
as Friday. Widespread highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s are likely by
Friday, warmest coasts to coastal valleys. Fire weather concerns
will be on the rise during this period, however recent rains may
somewhat dampen or delay this concern.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...03/115 PM.

Weak to moderate Santa Ana conditions will continue into Saturday
or Sunday, possibly even continuing into early next week. Low end
wind advisories may be needed for windiest areas with elevated
fire weather concerns potentially continuing.

Moderate heat impacts may continue near the coast through Sunday
or Monday with highs in the 80s and maybe some low 90s during the
peak of the event.

A pattern shift is looking more likely for the middle to end of
next week when wet weather is likely to return. While details
remain fuzzy that far out, we will keep you updated as we learn
more about the potential pattern shift.

&&

.AVIATION...03/2358Z.

At 2326Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer. There was an
elevated inversion between 6000-8000 ft, with a max temp of 10 C.

Moderate confidence in KPRB/KSBP/KSMX with a chance of scattered
MVFR CIGs and showers through 06Z.

For all other sites, high confidence in VFR TAFs and moderate to
high confidence in winds.

KLAX...Moderate to high confidence in TAF. Any easterly wind
component tonight is expected to remain below 6 knots.

KBUR...High confidence in VFR TAF.

&&

.MARINE...03/817 PM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current
forecast. Through tonight, high confidence in Small Craft Advisory
(SCA) level winds developing across PZZ673/676, but remaining
below SCA levels across PZZ670. For Wednesday through Saturday,
high confidence in combination of SCA level winds and seas across
all of the Outer Waters. On Sunday, winds and seas are expected to
drop below SCA levels.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. Through tonight, high confidence
in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. For Wednesday
afternoon through Thursday, there is a 50-60% chance of SCA level
winds in the afternoon and evening hours. For Friday through
Sunday, there is a 20% chance of SCA level north to northeast
winds, mainly in the overnight and morning hours.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. Through tonight, there is a 60-80%
chance of SCA level winds across all of the southern Inner Waters.
For Wednesday through Thursday, high confidence in winds and seas
remaining below SCA levels, except for SCA winds in the western
Santa Barbara Channel. For Friday through Saturday, there is a
20-30% chance of SCA level northeast winds from Ventura south to
Santa Monica in the night and morning hours. On Sunday, winds and
seas are expected to remain below SCA levels.

Through Thursday, the gusty winds will likely result in choppy,
short-period, seas.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM to 9 PM PST
      Wednesday for zones 645-650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Wednesday for
      zones 650-655. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM Wednesday to 3 AM
      PST Friday for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Friday for
      zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Munroe/Schoenfeld
AVIATION...Schoenfeld
MARINE...Ciliberti
SYNOPSIS...Lewis

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox