052
FXUS66 KLOX 151607
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
907 AM PDT Sat Aug 15 2026

.SYNOPSIS...15/906 AM.

Night through morning marine layer clouds will continue for the
coast and valleys, shrinking in coverage each day into next week.
Cooler than normal temperatures continue through this weekend,
then warmer than normal temperatures return next week, with
widespread moderate Heat Risk.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-MON)...15/905 AM.

Weak upper level trough of low pressure off the coast of
California today combined with moderate onshore flow has
resulted in another deep marine layer this morning, along with
cooler than normal daytime temperatures. The marine layer
depth remains between 2500 and 3000 feet, which is slightly
shallower than yesterday morning. As a result, low clouds and
fog have pushed well into the valleys this morning. Other than a
few cloud build-ups over the local mountains each afternoon this
weekend, looking for all thunderstorm activity to remain well
south and east of our area.

The main story over the next seven days is the warming trend
continuing into next week. While the weak trough along the coast
remains in place, the large area of high pressure will continue to
expand west, nudging in higher 500 mb heights each day. Come
Monday we will solidly be under the influence of the upper level
ridging as the trough is moved west well off the coast. Onshore
flow will weaken simultaneously, leading to a gradual warming
trend into Monday. While high temperatures across most of the area
will remain cooler than mid August normals through the weekend,
many areas will be at or above normal by early next week.

Marine layer stratus is expected to be present through the period,
shrinking in depth and coverage each day and likely receding to
just the coastal areas by Monday. The absence of marine layer
clouds will allow for quicker warming away from the coastal areas,
much different than what we saw the last couple of days.

An increase in northwest to northerly winds is likely as soon as
Sunday as the north-south pressure gradient strengthens. We will
see increasing gusty winds over southwest Santa Barbara County
and interior mountains (especially through the Grapevine) and the
Antelope Valley. At this point winds aren`t expected to be
widespread advisory levels, however, there is a moderate chance
for advisory level winds across southwest Santa Barbara County
by Monday evening, as the Santa Barbara-Santa Maria gradient is
expected to peak around -4 mb. The focus of the winds each evening
will be from Gaviota to San Marcos Pass.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...15/105 AM.

There is now good agreement amongst models that the upper level
ridging will remain over the Western US, bringing hot and dry
conditions to Southwest California through at least Thursday.
There is a bit more disagreement regarding the evolutions of the
upper pattern starting Friday. Cluster analysis shows fairly equal
probabilities between ridging slightly weakening, yet continuing
across the West and a weak troughing pattern setting up along the
West Coast, nudging the ridge back towards the east. The latter
solution does keep the main axis of the trough slightly north and
west of us, so warm and dry conditions would still be likely if
this solution comes to fruition, just not as warm as the other
scenario.

Regardless of how the pattern plays out at the end of the week,
the upper level ridging will bring hot and dry conditions to the
region Tuesday through at least Thursday. Largest increases in
temperatures will be most notable away from the immediate coasts
as marine layer influences will remain confined to the coastal
areas. High temperatures will revert back to what has seemingly
been the case much of this summer: warmer than seasonal normals.
Expanding moderate Heat Risk will become common Tuesday through at
least Thursday, bringing a moderate chance of Heat Advisories to
many areas.

The marine layer is expected to be fairly shallow,thus dense fog
may become an issue in some areas. Marine layer coverage may be
wiped out across the Santa Barbara south coast and potentially
Ventura County as the increasing north-south pressure gradient
will allow for weak to potentially moderate Sundowner winds. Aside
from gusty winds across southwest Santa Barbara County, interior
mountains and desert will likely see an uptick in northwest to
north winds overnight. Advisory level winds are not expected,
aside from a low to moderate chance over southwestern Santa
Barbara County.

&&

.AVIATION...15/1127Z.

At 0836Z at KLAX, the marine layer was at 2300 feet deep. The top
of the inversion was near 3500 feet with a temperature of 20 C.

High confidence in VFR TAFs for KPMD & KWJF.

Moderate confidence in remaining TAFs. Patchy marine layer will
result in SCT to OVC 015 conds at KSBA, KOXR, KCMA through the
morning. VFR transitions may be off +/- 2 hours. Arrival tonight
may be off +/- 4 hours, lowest confidence KSBA, KOXR, KCMA. Low
chance for brief IFR cigs at KSBP/KSMX. No significant wind issues
expected.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. Arrival and clearing of MVFR
CIGs may be off +/- 2 hours of current forecast, then arrival
time Saturday night may be between 03Z-10Z with slightly lower
ceilings, but still expected MVFR conds. No significant east wind
component expected.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. VFR transition may be any time
from 16Z-18Z. Arrival tonight may be off +/- 4 hours from
forecast.

&&

.MARINE...15/850 AM.

Moderate to high confidence in forecast. There is a 40-60 percent
chance of Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds developing over
the outer waters from near Point Conception southward to San
Nicolas Island and in the vicinity of the Channel Islands this
afternoon through late night. Further north over PZZ670 there is
a 30-40 percent chance of SCA gusts from late this afternoon
through late tonight.

There is a better chance of SCA level winds developing Sunday
afternoon from near Point Conception and southward over the outer
waters, and over the nearshore waters inside the S CA Bight. These
nearshore winds are likely to subside early Monday morning, but
with SCA winds continuing over the two southern outer zones
PZZ673-676. By late Monday afternoon or evening, SCA winds are
likely to expand northward to the outer and nearshore waters north
of Pt. Sal, and into the Santa Barbara Channel. Local gusts to 25
knots may affect portions of PZZ655 Monday evening.

Strong SCA winds are likely to persist over the outer waters
Tuesday and Wednesday, affecting the nearshore areas in the
afternoon and evening hours. Local gale force gusts will be
possible during this time. In addition, building short period
seas are expected, likely rising to around 8 feet over the outer
waters.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3
      AM PDT Sunday for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Gomberg/Lewis
AVIATION...Lewis
MARINE...Ciliberti/KL
SYNOPSIS...Lewis

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox