574
FXUS66 KLOX 112200
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
200 PM PST Tue Nov 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...11/100 PM.

Onshore flow has returned and will bring significant cooling to
inland areas. A shallow marine layer will create dense fog at
times at the coast tonight, then possibly reaching the valleys by
Wednesday morning. A trough of low pressure will approach the
West Coast on Wednesday night and bring rain, heavy at times
through Thursday night or Friday and possibly into Saturday as
well.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-FRI)...11/142 PM.

Onshore flow is returning to the area bringing significant cooling
to areas away from the immediate coast. This trend will continue
Wednesday with high temperatures dropping to the mid 60s to mid
70s area-wide. The marine layer remains quite shallow and dense
fog is again likely across the coastal waters and near the beaches
tonight. Some lifting of the marine layer is expected by Wednesday
morning and some low clouds and dense fog are possible in some of
the valleys. High level clouds will be increasing across the area
tonight and Wednesday but no precipitation is expected.

Models made a significant shift in the upper level pattern later
this week creating increasing uncertainty with the timing and
overall details of the storm, especially with the later Fri/Sat
period. Confidence is still high that the initial round of rain
will arrive Thursday into Friday morning, though the timing has
moved forward 5-10 hours from the previous forecast and there is a
possibility of additional timing adjustments as the models
recalibrate based on how storm evolves. The arrival of hi res
models Wednesday will help as well.

This first burst of rain still looks to be the strongest with
widespread rain rates between a quarter and half inch per hour and
locally as much as 0.75/hr. Orographics will play a big role with
upslope areas getting 2-3 times the amounts at sea level. This
will be particularly pronounced across southern Santa Barbara
County where up to 4 inches or locally higher are possible in the
mountains. There is 10-20% chance of thunderstorms across the area
as well.

No snow expected with this system except possibly a few inches,
mostly above 8000 feet.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...11/159 PM.

There is very low confidence in the Saturday forecast given
today`s huge pattern shift which resulted in the models cutting
off the upper low about 300 miles southwest of LAX Saturday
morning and then slowly moving it northeast on Sunday. If the
upper low stalls far enough offshore it could lead to a
continuation of steady moderate to locally heavy rain across the
area Saturday (especially south of Pt Conception) and possibly
even into early Sunday as the initial plume just pivots around
the low rather than progressing east. If the upper low ends up not
cutting off and returns to the original, more progressive
pattern, there may be still be some light showers south of Pt
Conception Saturday but much lighter and exiting sooner. The first
(and wetter) scenario is the currently favored option in the
models now but overall this is a very low confidence forecast.

The rest of forecast through early next week remains similarly
uncertain given the earlier issues. There are several ensemble
solutions still indicating another cutoff low along the West coast
with a chance of rain Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...11/1753Z.

At 17Z at KLAX, the marine inversion was around 300 ft deep. The
top of the inversion was near 2300 feet with a temperature of 25
degrees Celsius.

High confidence in VFR conditions for KVNY, KWJF and KPMD thru Wed
morning.

Moderate confidence in the 18Z TAFs for all coastal sites along
with KPRB and KBUR. Moderate confidence in return of cigs after
00Z, except after 12Z at KPRB and KBUR, but low confidence in
timing (+/- 2 hours) and minimum flight cat (off +/- one cat).

KLAX...Low to moderate confidence in the 18Z TAF. Arrival of low
clouds tonight may be off +/- 2 hours. Moderate confidence in
minimum flight cat, and there is a 20% chance VLIFR conds may not
develop or last as long. No significant east wind component is
expected.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in the 18Z TAF. There is a 50% chance
of low clouds and IFR conds from about 14Z-17Z Wed, altho the
arrival of any low clouds may be off +/- an hour or so.

&&

.MARINE...11/1256 PM.

High confidence in relatively calm winds and seas through
Wednesday, except for localized Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level
wind gusts to 25 knots near Point Conception and south to San
Nicolas Islands this afternoon and evening. In addition, patchy
dense fog with visibilities less than one nautical mile is
expected for all the coastal waters tonight into Wednesday
morning.

Southwest winds 15-30 knots will develop Wednesday night
across the outer waters as well as nearshore along the Central
Coast. A cold front from a storm system will pass through the
region Thursday and Thursday night. Gusty S to SW winds of 20-30
knots will develop across the entirety of the coastal waters then
switch to NW and continue Friday and Friday night. Seas across the
outer waters will increase to 12-14 feet, and 5-7 feet inside the
Southern California Bight.

From Wednesday night through Thursday, the aforementioned storm
system will bring a slight chance of thunderstorms across the
coastal waters from the Santa Barbara Channel northward. Any
thunderstorms that develop will be capable of producing frequent
lightning, gusty and erratic winds, locally rough seas and even
waterspouts.

Moderate confidence in conditions improving some over the weekend,
but SCA winds are still possible, especially across the outer
waters.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...Sirard
MARINE...Sirard
SYNOPSIS...MW/Hall/KL

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox