591
FXUS66 KLOX 280939
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
239 AM PDT Tue Jul 28 2026

.SYNOPSIS...28/228 AM.

Hotter than normal conditions will continue for the foreseeable
future. Slight cooling will take place through Thursday, with
heat increasing again Friday through Sunday. The hot and humid
conditions during the day and night will bring elevated risks of
heat-related illness.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-THU)...28/228 AM.

Widespread MODERATE TO HIGH heat risk is very likely to return
Friday. Please see the extended discussion below for weather
details.

Fairly quiet conditions expected through the short term. A very
weak trof will be over the state today and most of Wednesday.
Hgts, however will only drop to 590 dam. Later Wednesday and into
Thursday, a strong upper high currently centered over NM will
begin to migrate westward. By Thursday afternoon it will be over
the 4 corners regions and hgts over Srn CA will rise to 596 dam.

Surface pressure gradients will be mdt-stg onshore to the east
(strongest in the late afternoon). The N/S gradient will vary from
weak offshore in the morning to weak onshore in the afternoon.

The morning low cloud pattern will be fairly similar each day. Low
clouds are likely each morning across the LA coast and portions
of the Central Coast. Low clouds may also form over the csts of
SLO and VTA counties, but there is only about a 50 percent chc
each day.

The trof`s influence will bring 1 to 2 degrees of cooling each
day today and Wednesday. Even with the cooling most of the high
temps on Wednesday will be 2 to 4 degrees over normal with 80s
across the csts, 90s in the vlys and 98-102 degrees across the
lower mtn elevations and far interior. The upper highs influence
will be felt on Thursday as max temps will bump up 1 to 3 degrees
with the increasing hgts.

Gusty Sundowner winds will occur each evening and overnight across
southwest Santa Barbara County. These winds will likely come in
just under advisory levels.

A large south swell from Major Hurricane Genevieve will further
enhance large wave and potentially deadly rip currents for some
area beaches. See Beaches discussion below and associated coastal
hazard products for details.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...28/225 AM.

Widespread MODERATE TO HIGH heat risk is very likely to return
Friday into the weekend. Now is the time to start socializing this
threat with your community and family and consider rescheduling
activities that might but you or your loved ones at risk. Have a
plan to stay cool, especially if work or other activities take you
outside mid-morning to mid-evening hours or do not have access to
air conditioning.

The upper high will continue to track to the west on Friday and
will peak Saturday afternoon as it settles over AZ with a central
hgt of 600 dam. Hgts over Srn CA both Fri and Sat could reach 598
dam. For context since 1948 there have only been 12 days during
the months of July and August where hgts have been 598 dam (10
days) or 599 dam (2 days). Hgts will fall some Sun and Mon as an
impulse works its way through the north of the State.

Heat Advisories and warnings are a near certainty for the Friday
to Sunday period. At this time there is high confidence in the
forecast for widespread highs of 95-105 away from the coast with
pockets of 105-115 in warmest coastal valleys to interior during
the peak of the heatwave Friday and Saturday. Highs 80-95 will be
common coastal areas away from the beaches. Overnight lows in the
70s and 80s for many areas will increase risk for heat stress
through prolonged exposure and limited ability for dwellings
without air conditioning to cool overnight.

Night to morning low clouds will diminish or disappear during
this time, although weakened onshore focused to the east will
somewhat limit the heat nearest the coast. However, well above
normal water temperatures will continue to drive increased
humidity near the coast, decreasing the body`s ability to cool
through sweating.

There is also an increased risk for large and dangerous fires due
to the hot and unstable conditions with pockets of gusty winds,
perhaps, especially southwest Santa Barbara County and the I-5
corridor in the mountains into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...28/0936Z.

At 0836Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 900 ft deep. The top of
the inversion was near 1800 ft with a temperature of 26 C.

High confidence in TAFs for KBUR, KVNY, KPMD, KWJF, and KPRB.

Moderate confidence in TAFs for KLGB, KLAX, KSMO, KSBP, and KSMX
where the arrival and departure times of CIGs could be off by +/-
2 hours. Min CIG heights may be off by +/- 200 feet, with a 20%
chance for VLIFR conds at KSMX/KSBP. There is a 30-40% chance cigs
fail to reach KLGB, KLAX, and KSMO.

Moderate confidence in TAFs for KOXR and KCMA with a 30 percent
chc of IFR/LIFR cig/vis 12Z-17Z.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. Cigs could arrive as late as
13Z. VFR conds could arrive as early as 15Z or as late as 17Z.
High confidence in any east winds staying under 7 knots.

KBUR...High confidence in CAVU TAF.

&&

.MARINE...28/228 AM.

Good confidence in a prolonged period of gusty northwest winds
across the coastal waters through this week, except for nearshore
south of Point Conception (including eastern Santa Barbara
Channel and the waters adjacent to the Los Angeles and Orange
County coasts). Small Craft Advisory (SCA) conditions will be
fairly persistent, with localized gale force gusts possible
this afternoon and evening over the outer waters.

Nearshore south of Point Conception, marginal SCA level winds
(20-25 knots) will become common across the western half of the
Santa Barbara Channel each afternoon and evening with low chances
of extending into eastern portions of the Channel. The southern
nearshore waters are expected to see winds below 20 knots.

Seas are expected to hover near 8-10 feet across the waters away
from the coasts much of the week. A southerly swell from Hurricane
Genevieve will send a southerly swell into the waters tonight
into tomorrow, which will continue into the weekend. This south
swell may impact south facing harbors, including Port San Luis.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement in effect through Wednesday afternoon
      for zones 87-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     Coastal Flood Advisory in effect from 5 PM Wednesday to 3 AM
      PDT Saturday for zones 87-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     High Surf Advisory in effect from 5 PM Wednesday to 5 PM PDT
      Saturday for zones 87-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     Beach Hazards Statement in effect through Saturday afternoon
      for zones 340-346. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     Wind Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT early this morning for
      zones 349-351. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT early this
      morning for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Warning in effect until 3 AM PDT early this morning for
      zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Rorke
AVIATION...Rorke
MARINE...Phillips/Lewis
SYNOPSIS...MW/RK/CC

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox