582
FXUS66 KLOX 111120
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
420 AM PDT Thu Sep 11 2025

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...10/124 PM.

A period of cooler, well below normal temperatures will last at
least through the weekend. Morning marine layer clouds will
expand across coastal areas and many valleys with morning drizzle
possible through Friday, followed by a gradual warming trend for
the weekend and continuing into next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT)...11/243 AM.

Very little to talk about for the short term which will feature
very benign weather. Today`s main feature is the large pos tilt
trof that is over the state. With below normal 579 dam hgts this
trof will bring max temps 3 to 6 degrees blo normal to the csts
and 6 to 12 degrees across the vlys. Vly temps today will only be
in the lower to mid 80s. The morning marine layer cloud coverage
is greatly reduced this morning. Low clouds are reluctant to form
as there was plenty of cool air advection aloft ydy with the trof
and the sea sfc temps are above normal both of which will inhibit
marine layer cloud formation. The best low cloud coverage is
across the Central Coast and Santa Ynez Vly where moist westerly
flow is creating upslope stratus. The trof has also created plenty
of clouds across the mtns and interior. It will be another partly
cloudy day across the mtns as weak instability assoc with the trof
will produce a decent CU field.

NW flow across the outer waters will increase this afternoon and
will create low end advisory level wind gusts across the SW
portion of SBA county as it moves ashore and then squirts out of
the passes and canyons of the western Santa Ynez range.

The trof will slowly translate east on Friday and esp Sat with a
ridge moving in from the west taking its place. The higher hgts
will bring a few degrees of warming each day. The increased hgts
and subsidence will also create a better marine inversion and
there should be more morning low clouds across the coasts. Despite
the warming max temps will remain blo normal on both days.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...11/1209 AM.

The previous rouge GFS solutions have finally been cast away and
now both the EC and GFS agree that a weak ridge will slowly push
up from the south. This will lead to a slow warming trend through
the period. Onshore flow will persist through the period save for
some very weak offshore flow from the north in the morning. Skies
should be mostly clear except for a coastal night through morning
low cloud pattern through Tuesday. Wednesday`s skies may turn
partly cloudy as a some mid level moisture moves up from the
north.

Most areas will see 1 to 2 degrees of warming each day Sun-Wed.
There is a potential for even more warming on Wednesday but that
will depend on how many clouds arrive over the area. Max temps
will come close to normals by mid week with vly highs in the 90s
and 80s across the coasts (Mid 70s at the beaches)

Both mdls (and esp the EC) show a good surge of moisture advecting
up from the S on Wednesday and continuing into Thursday. This
could trigger another round of convection.

&&

.AVIATION...11/1118Z.

At 0649Z at KLAX, there was a moist layer that was 2500 ft deep,
with a weak inversion up to 4300 ft with a maximum temperature of
15 C.

High confidence in TAFs for KPMD and KWJF.

Low confidence in all coastal and valley TAFs due to patchy marine
layer. There is a 15% chance for MVFR cigs at any LA County site
through 18Z, and a 40% chance for KCMA. At all sites, cigs may
frequently bounce between BKN and SCT MVFR cigs through the
morning. Arrival of low clouds tonight may be off +/- 2 hours for
KSMX and KSBP, and +/- 3 hours for other sites. There is a 20%
chance for no low clouds tonight at KLAX, KSMO, KLGB, and a 30-40%
chance MVFR cigs arrive between 06Z and 12Z at KPRB, KOXR, KCMA,
KBUR, and KVNY.

KLAX...Low confidence in TAF. There is a 15% chance BKN015-BKN025
cigs form at some point through 18Z. Arrival of BKN010-BKN020 cigs
tonight may be any time between 06Z and 12Z. 20% chance for no
low clouds late tonight. Any cigs that do develop may bounce
between SCT- BKN conds. Any east wind component should remain
below 8 kts through this morning. 20% chance an east wind
component reaches 8 kts between 10Z and 17Z Fri.

KBUR...Low confidence in TAF. 15% chance BKN015-BKN025 cigs form
through 18Z. 30% chance BKN010-BKN020 cigs arrive between 06Z and
12Z Fri. Any cigs that do develop may bounce between SCT- BKN
conds.

&&

.MARINE...11/124 AM.

Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level NW winds (20-30 kts) will impact
the outer waters through Monday night, with sub advisory winds
for the waters beyond 10 NM along the Central Coast through this
morning before ramping up in the early afternoon. Lulls may occur
during the morning hours. The nearshore waters along the Central
Coast will see SCA level NW winds (20-30 kts) each afternoon and
evening through Monday night. Short period choppy seas will be
common. Seas will peak around 6 to 8 feet beginning this afternoon
through Monday.

For the inner waters south of Point Conception, SCA level WNW
winds (20-25 kts) are likely this afternoon/evening across the
Santa Barbara Channel and again Friday. Seas will peak at 4 to 6
feet each afternoon and evening through Friday, and seas will be
short period and choppy. Chances for SCA winds are lower over the
weekend as winds trend slightly weaker and more NW. Some
localized NW gusts to 20 kts may occur near Point Dume and west of
Catalina today and Friday in the afternoon and evening, then
winds will trend lighter over the weekend.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory in effect from 5 PM this afternoon to 5 AM PDT
      Friday for zones 349-351. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 1 PM this afternoon to
      midnight PDT tonight for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3
      AM PDT Friday for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from 1 PM this afternoon to 3
      AM PDT Friday for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Saturday for
      zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Rorke
AVIATION...Lewis
MARINE...Lewis
SYNOPSIS...MW/Schoenfeld

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox