


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA
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042 FXUS66 KLOX 161144 AFDLOX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 444 AM PDT Wed Jul 16 2025 .SYNOPSIS...16/1214 AM. Night through morning low clouds and patchy fog will continue for the coasts and most valleys through much of this week. A cooling trend will continue through Thursday when valley highs are only expected to be in the 80s. A slow warming trend will develop by the weekend with highs close to normal. && .SHORT TERM (TDY-FRI)...16/1214 AM. A weak eddy and strong onshore flow will bring the marine layer up to about 3000 ft this morning. As a result marine layer stratus will advance all the way to the coastal slopes and will cover all of the vlys including the Santa Clarita. Slight offshore trends this afternoon will allow for slightly better and faster clearing although a few west facing beaches will likely remain cloudy all day. The deep marine layer will bring cool temps to the area with max temps ranging from 3 to 6 locally up to 10 degrees blo normal. The warmest vly locations will only see highs in the mid 80s. On Thursday a weak upper low moves into nrn Mexico and shift the upper level flow to the SE. This will pump in some monsoon moisture. Mdls still showing the greatest chc of convection to the SE and E of LA county. Mdls show the best moisture over LA County to be over 700 mb with uninspiring LIs and CAPE values so current forecast of 10 percent chc of convection seems good. The morning low clouds will persist but better clearing will allow for a couple of degrees of warming for most of the area. Offshore trends (esp in the afternoon) will lead to less marine layer cloud coverage and much better clearing. This faster clearing will bring an additional couple of degrees of warming to most areas. Max temps, however, will remain 2 to 5 degrees blo normal. Continued SE flow aloft will keep the 10 percent chc of afternoon convection going over the mtns. Still limited instability and CAPE will likely prevent anything from developing. .LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...16/306 AM. Excitement meter barely moving in the long term. On Saturday the upper low will move away and the far western edge of a large upper high will slowly move over the area. At the sfc, onshore flow will be at a minimum on Saturday and then will slowly increase Sunday through Tuesday. The night through morning low clouds will continue at the coasts and will slowly filter back into some of the vlys. The increase in onshore flow will be counteracted somewhat by the increasing hgts which will keep some vly areas clear. Max temps will rise 1 or 2 degrees on Saturday but then will not change much over the next three days. Max temps will continue to run 3 to 6 degrees blo normal. The monsoon door will be closed and there do not look like there will be any wind issues either. && .AVIATION...16/1143Z. At 0910Z at KLAX, the marine layer 3100 ft deep. The top of the marine inversion was at 4000 feet with a temperature of 22 C. Good Confidence in TAFs for KPMD and KWJF. Moderate confidence in the remainder of the TAFs. VFR transition may be off by 1 hour and return time may be off by 2 hours. KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. VFR conds could arrive as early as 1730Z. Return of MVFR cigs could occur any time between 02Z and 05Z. Good confidence that any east wind component will be under 6 kt. KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. VFR conds could arrive as early as 1630Z or as late as 18Z. Return of MVFR cigs could occur any time between 06Z and 09Z. && .MARINE...16/426 AM. Tonight through Thursday, winds and seas are expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels across all the coastal waters. For Friday, winds will begin to increase with a 30-40% chance of SCA level winds around Point Conception. SCA winds appear more likely Saturday into early next week. Lower confidence in the forecast from Friday evening into early next week, and winds could be stronger than forecast. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...NONE. PZ...NONE. && $$ PUBLIC...Rorke AVIATION...Rorke MARINE...Phillips SYNOPSIS...MW/Ciliberti weather.gov/losangeles Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at: https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox