959
FXUS66 KLOX 170256
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
756 PM PDT Wed Jul 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...16/115 PM.

There will be a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
Thursday into Friday across eastern Los Angeles County.
Otherwise, night through morning low clouds and patchy fog will
continue for the coasts and most valleys through the weekend.
Below normal temperatures are expected into early next week,
though a slow warming trend will develop Thursday and Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-FRI)...16/752 PM.

***UPDATE***

Offshore trends today allowed the marine layer to clear much
faster and much more completely today. Currently skies are clear
across the area with just a small tongue of clouds approaching
Port Hueneme. Low clouds will reform tonight but will make only
limited penetration into the vlys.

Max temps today cooled across the interior as hgts continued to
fall. The most of the cst/vly areas warmed some today, however, as
the quicker retreat of low clouds allowed for more warming. Max
temps still ended up 3 to 6 degrees blo normals.

Forecast is in good shape and will issue a small update to delay
low clouds and reduce the amount of vly coverage.

***From Previous Discussion***

For most areas the weather through Saturday will be benign with
temperatures a few degrees below normal. Night through morning low
clouds and fog will continue as well, though some lowering of the
inversion may prevent clouds from getting as far inland as they
have the last few mornings.

However, models are indicating monsoon moisture will be entering
the area from the southeast, particularly later Thursday into
Friday and parts of LA County may experience some showers or
thunderstorms as early as Thursday afternoon. Initially any
precipitation is expected to be confined to the higher terrain of
the eastern San Gabriel Mountains. CAPE values around 600-800J/km
could be enough to trigger an isolated storm or two there.
Although steering flow is very light, chances for any flooding
rains is under 5% as most of the moisture is at higher levels.

Then going into Thursday night into Friday morning, an upper low
will be approaching from the south, bring increasing moisture and
instability to mainly eastern LA County, including the San
Gabriel Valley and smaller chances as far west as the coast.
Forecast soundings show PW`s increasing to as high as 1.5 inches
later Thursday night into Friday. Steering flow remains light and
moisture is expected to increase at lower levels down to around
800mb. Because of these factors, chances for flooding rain will be
slightly higher, but still under 10% and mostly in the mountains.

By Friday afternoon any showers and/or storms will likely be
confined to the eastern LA mountains.

Conditions Saturday will be back to normal with no showers or
thunderstorms expected.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...16/158 PM.

Very quiet weather expected Sunday through the middle of next
week with just minor day to day variations. Temperatures are
expected to remain slightly below normal in most areas with
continued night and morning low clouds and fog across coast and
most valleys. Most of the longer range models are indicating a
warming trend at the end of next week but nothing too dramatic and
not likely worthy of heat hazards.

&&

.AVIATION...17/0038Z.

At 2357Z at KLAX, the marine layer 1900 ft deep. The top of the
marine inversion was at 3800 feet with a temperature of 24 C.

High confidence in KPMD and KWJF.

For all other sites, moderate confidence. Occasional gusts of
15-25kt may occur at all coastal sites until 03Z this evening
(Thu). Timing of flight category changes may be +/- 2 hours off,
and celling heights may be off by +/- 400 ft at times.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. Timing of flight category
changes may be +/- 2 hours off, and cigs may be off by +/- 400
feet at times, ranging between OVC010-OVC025. No significant
easterly wind component is expected.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. Timing of flight category
changes may be +/- 2 hours off, and there is a 20% chance no cigs
develop.

&&

.MARINE...16/755 PM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current
forecast. Tonight through Thursday, high confidence in winds and
seas remaining below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels. For Friday
through Monday, there is a 30-50% chance of SCA level winds,
especially across PZZ673/676.

For the Inner Waters, high confidence in current forecast. Tonight
through Monday, winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA
levels for all of the Inner Waters.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/Rorke
AVIATION...Schoenfeld
MARINE...RAT/Ciliberti
SYNOPSIS...MW

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox