454
FXUS66 KLOX 161006
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
306 AM PDT Mon Jun 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...15/1145 PM.

High pressure over the region will maintain very warm temperatures
through much of the coming week, especially away from the coast
and across the interior portions of the area. Gusty northerly
winds will develop once again tonight across southern Santa
Barbara County and through the Interstate 5 Corridor. A gradual
cooling trend will develop late in the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-WED)...16/305 AM.

Another warm day to start the week with. 592 dam hgts will combine
with only weak onshore flow and a minimal marine layer to produce
another day of well above normal temperatures. The afternoon
onshore push is a tough stronger than it was ydy and this will
bring a little cooling to the area. Still looking at max temps in
the 90s for most of the vlys with isolated triple digit readings
in the western San Fernando Vly. While these max temps are 8 to 12
degrees above normal they are just a hair under advisory criteria.
Still people working or playing outside in the mid day hours
should take precautions to avoid heat related issues. The Central
Coast will be the exception to the warming where a stronger sea
breeze will result in 2 to 4 degrees of cooling with highs mostly
in the 60s.

The northerly advisory level winds will continue today and will
come in even stronger than they are currently. Advisory level
gusts will also likely develop through the i-5 corridor as well
tonight.

Weak ridging moves in over the area from the west on Tuesday. Hgts
will rise slightly to 591 dam. Offshore flow will develop from the
north and the onshore push to the east will weaken. This will
prevent much expansion of the marine layer stratus which once
again should be confined to the LA county south coast and western
SBA county. Most max temps will change little from today`s values,
although the SBA south coast could see an unforecast warm up if
downsloping winds develop (30 percent chc).

Ridging continues on Wednesday and the airmass over the interior
will warm by 3 to 6 locally 8 degrees. A different story for the
csts and vlys, however, as an eddy is forecast to spin up driven
by the momentum from the outer water winds. The eddy will likely
bring stratus to most of the LA/VTA vlys. The north flow across
the SBA south coast will probably keep that area clear. The low
clouds and stronger onshore flow will bring 6 to 12 degrees of
cooling to the LA/VTA csts and vlys. This will lower max temps to
only 3 to 6 degrees above normal with 70s for most coastal sites
and 80s in the vlys.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...16/1219 AM.

Wednesday`s ridge will slowly be nudged eastward by an upper low
rotating out of the Gulf of Alaska. This low will move southward
and eventually move though the PACNW over the weekend. The flow
over Srn CA will gradually become more cyclonic as the upper low
progresses. Hgts will start out at an above average 589 dam but
will lower to 580 dam by Sunday afternoon.

At the sfc, there will be a 7 to 9 mb onshore push to the east in
the afternoons and about a 4 mb push in the mornings. The N/S
gradient will vary diurnally from offshore in the morning to
onshore in the afternoons.

The increased onshore flow will combine with increased cyclonic
turning to reinvigorate the marine layer stratus pattern. Look for
June Gloom conditions with night through morning low clouds and
fog covering most of the csts and vlys. The offshore push from
north will likely keep the Santa Clarita Vly and portions of the
SBA south coast cloud free. Clearing will be slow across the csts
and vlys with no clearing at many west facing beaches.

Max temps will drop each day Thu through Sat and will then rebound
slightly Sun as the onshore push weakens a little. By Saturday
most max temps will be blo normal. The interior will see the
biggest drop in temperatures. The Antelope Vly, for example will
cool from 100 to 101 degrees Thu to 88 to 90 degrees Saturday.

The strong onshore push to the east will bring gusty afternoon
southwesterly winds across interior sections, especially the
Antelope Valley.

&&

.AVIATION...16/0703Z.

At 0625Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 900 ft deep. The top of
the inversion was at 4100 ft with a temperature of 28 C.

High confidence in TAFs for KPRB, KSBA, KOXR, KCMA, KBUR, KVNY,
KPMD, and KWJF.

Low to moderate confidence in remaining TAFs. There is a 40%
chance for LIFR-IFR conditions developing at KSBP through 16Z
Mon. There is a 30% chance KLAX and KSMO remains VFR through the
period, and a 20% chance for KLGB.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 30% chance for VFR
conds to prevail through the period, otherwise arrival of cigs may
be as early as 10Z. THere is a 10-20% chance for brief LIFR
conditions around 13Z. There is a 15% chance an east wind
component reach 6 kts between 12Z and 17Z.

KBUR...High confidence in TAF.

&&

.MARINE...16/221 AM.

High confidence in gusty northwest winds across the Outer Waters
and Inner Waters along the Central coast through the week. Lulls
in winds along the Central Coast are likely in the overnight and
early morning hours. A Gale Warning is in effect for the outer
waters from this afternoon through Tuesday night, and for the
northern inner waters for this afternoon/evening. Seas will also
approach 10 feet at times through the week. Gale force winds will
be possible again by the end of the week.

Gusty winds for western and southern portions of the Santa
Barbara Channel in the afternoon and evening hours appear likely
through Tuesday, with lower confidence thereafter. Lower
confidence in wind strength, and gale force gusts are possible
through the western and southern portions of PZZ650. A Small
Craft Advisory will start this afternoon and lead into a Gale
Watch for Tuesday afternoon/evening, with less impacts expected
near Santa Barbara, Ventura, and Channel Islands Harbors.

Moderate confidence in conditions remaining below advisory levels
in the Inner Waters off the Los Angeles and Orange County coasts
through the week. However, localized WNW SCA level wind gusts may
occur in the afternoon and evening hours near Malibu and through
portions of the San Pedro Channel today and Tuesday.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory remains in effect until 9 AM PDT Tuesday for
      zones 349-351. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PDT this afternoon
      for zones 645-670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Warning in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT
      this evening for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from noon today to noon PDT
      Tuesday for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Watch in effect from Tuesday afternoon through late
      Tuesday night for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Warning in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT
      Wednesday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Rorke
AVIATION...Schoenfeld
MARINE...Lewis/Schoenfeld
SYNOPSIS...Ciliberti

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox