Land Management Forecasts
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA

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ECCDA Discussions
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
238 PM PST Thu Jan 2 2025

ECC029-031645-
Los Padres National Forest-
Discussion for Vandenberg ECC Dispatch
238 PM PST Thu Jan 2 2025

...Discussion from Monterey...

Scattered showers will be possible across the North Bay tonight, but
the rest of the district will remain dry. Brief back in precip on
Thursday with dry conditions everywhere. Rain returns to the
district Thursday night and Friday. Dry weather returns this
weekend.

Note : All winds are 20-foot Winds Unless otherwise specified.
Thunderstorms imply strong, gusty and erratic winds.



...Discussion from Los Angeles/Oxnard...

...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY ACROSS THE VALLEYS,
MOUNTAINS, AND FOOTHILLS OF LA/VENTURA COUNTIES DUE TO LOCALLY
BREEZY OFFSHORE WINDS WITH WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS, SHIFTING TO
INTERIOR MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO
BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES...

...ELEVATED TO BRIEF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LIKELY ON
SUNDAY DUE TO WEAK TO LOCALLY MODERATE OFFSHORE WINDS AND LOW
HUMIDITIES...

...SCENARIOS RANGING FROM A WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDSTORM AND
EXTREME FIRE-WEATHER RISK TO WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW FOR NEXT TUESDAY TO
THURSDAY -- EACH SCENARIO POSSIBLE BUT FAR FROM CERTAIN...

Localized northeast wind gusts between 20 and 35 mph will linger
this afternoon in the wind prone mountains, hills, and valleys of LA
and Ventura counties, with humidities between 8 and 20 percent
common, resulting in elevated fire weather conditions. Winds will
turn southeast to south tonight and onshore by Friday with improving
humidities, except lingering low humidities over the interior
mountains and Antelope Valley where elevated fire weather conditions
will continue. There is a chance of light rain over northern areas
Friday night. Behind this system, Northwest to north wind gusts of
30 to 45 mph are likely on Saturday over the wind prone areas,
however humidities will likely remain elevated between 25 and
40 percent. A return of weak to locally moderate offshore winds will
return across LA, Ventura, and San Luis Obispo counties, with gusts
mostly in the 20 to 40 mph range. The offshore winds combined with
humidities lowering to between 12 and 25 percent will bring elevated
to brief critical fire weather conditions to LA/Ventura counties on
Sunday.

Offshore winds will likely develop Tuesday through at least
Thursday, and possibly into Friday of next week. While there is
still some uncertainty in the evolution of next week`s weather
pattern, there is a moderate to high risk of an extend period  of
Red Flag conditions over Los Angeles and Ventura Counties sometime
between Tuesday and Friday, with a low to moderate risk of Red Flag
conditions more briefly impacting parts of Santa Barbara and San
Luis Obispo counties. This wind event has the potential for strong
upper level wind support (especially in LA/Ventura counties),
bringing the potential for damaging wind gusts of 55 to 80 mph
(strongest in the mountains) in the Tuesday to Wednesday time
period, with at least moderate offshore winds likely into Thursday,
and possibly Friday. While there is a 50 percent probability of a
strong offshore wind event with extreme fire weather concerns, there
is also a 50 percent probability of a weak to moderate offshore wind
scenario. Humidities may remain elevated at the onset of offshore
winds on Tuesday, with the higher probability of widespread
humidities around 15 percent or less on Tuesday night or Wednesday.


$$

ECC028-031645-
Santa Barbara County excluding Los Padres National Forest-
Discussion for Santa Barbara ECC Dispatch
238 PM PST Thu Jan 2 2025

...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY ACROSS THE VALLEYS,
MOUNTAINS, AND FOOTHILLS OF LA/VENTURA COUNTIES DUE TO LOCALLY
BREEZY OFFSHORE WINDS WITH WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS, SHIFTING TO
INTERIOR MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO
BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES...

...ELEVATED TO BRIEF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LIKELY ON
SUNDAY DUE TO WEAK TO LOCALLY MODERATE OFFSHORE WINDS AND LOW
HUMIDITIES...

...SCENARIOS RANGING FROM A WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDSTORM AND
EXTREME FIRE-WEATHER RISK TO WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW FOR NEXT TUESDAY TO
THURSDAY -- EACH SCENARIO POSSIBLE BUT FAR FROM CERTAIN...

Localized northeast wind gusts between 20 and 35 mph will linger
this afternoon in the wind prone mountains, hills, and valleys of LA
and Ventura counties, with humidities between 8 and 20 percent
common, resulting in elevated fire weather conditions. Winds will
turn southeast to south tonight and onshore by Friday with improving
humidities, except lingering low humidities over the interior
mountains and Antelope Valley where elevated fire weather conditions
will continue. There is a chance of light rain over northern areas
Friday night. Behind this system, Northwest to north wind gusts of
30 to 45 mph are likely on Saturday over the wind prone areas,
however humidities will likely remain elevated between 25 and
40 percent. A return of weak to locally moderate offshore winds will
return across LA, Ventura, and San Luis Obispo counties, with gusts
mostly in the 20 to 40 mph range. The offshore winds combined with
humidities lowering to between 12 and 25 percent will bring elevated
to brief critical fire weather conditions to LA/Ventura counties on
Sunday.

Offshore winds will likely develop Tuesday through at least
Thursday, and possibly into Friday of next week. While there is
still some uncertainty in the evolution of next week`s weather
pattern, there is a moderate to high risk of an extend period  of
Red Flag conditions over Los Angeles and Ventura Counties sometime
between Tuesday and Friday, with a low to moderate risk of Red Flag
conditions more briefly impacting parts of Santa Barbara and San
Luis Obispo counties. This wind event has the potential for strong
upper level wind support (especially in LA/Ventura counties),
bringing the potential for damaging wind gusts of 55 to 80 mph
(strongest in the mountains) in the Tuesday to Wednesday time
period, with at least moderate offshore winds likely into Thursday,
and possibly Friday. While there is a 50 percent probability of a
strong offshore wind event with extreme fire weather concerns, there
is also a 50 percent probability of a weak to moderate offshore wind
scenario. Humidities may remain elevated at the onset of offshore
winds on Tuesday, with the higher probability of widespread
humidities around 15 percent or less on Tuesday night or Wednesday.


$$

ECC031-031645-
Angeles National Forest-
Discussion for Lancaster ECC Dispatch
238 PM PST Thu Jan 2 2025

...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY ACROSS THE VALLEYS,
MOUNTAINS, AND FOOTHILLS OF LA/VENTURA COUNTIES DUE TO LOCALLY
BREEZY OFFSHORE WINDS WITH WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS, SHIFTING TO
INTERIOR MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO
BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES...

...ELEVATED TO BRIEF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LIKELY ON
SUNDAY DUE TO WEAK TO LOCALLY MODERATE OFFSHORE WINDS AND LOW
HUMIDITIES...

...SCENARIOS RANGING FROM A WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDSTORM AND
EXTREME FIRE-WEATHER RISK TO WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW FOR NEXT TUESDAY TO
THURSDAY -- EACH SCENARIO POSSIBLE BUT FAR FROM CERTAIN...

Localized northeast wind gusts between 20 and 35 mph will linger
this afternoon in the wind prone mountains, hills, and valleys of LA
and Ventura counties, with humidities between 8 and 20 percent
common, resulting in elevated fire weather conditions. Winds will
turn southeast to south tonight and onshore by Friday with improving
humidities, except lingering low humidities over the interior
mountains and Antelope Valley where elevated fire weather conditions
will continue. There is a chance of light rain over northern areas
Friday night. Behind this system, Northwest to north wind gusts of
30 to 45 mph are likely on Saturday over the wind prone areas,
however humidities will likely remain elevated between 25 and
40 percent. A return of weak to locally moderate offshore winds will
return across LA, Ventura, and San Luis Obispo counties, with gusts
mostly in the 20 to 40 mph range. The offshore winds combined with
humidities lowering to between 12 and 25 percent will bring elevated
to brief critical fire weather conditions to LA/Ventura counties on
Sunday.

Offshore winds will likely develop Tuesday through at least
Thursday, and possibly into Friday of next week. While there is
still some uncertainty in the evolution of next week`s weather
pattern, there is a moderate to high risk of an extend period  of
Red Flag conditions over Los Angeles and Ventura Counties sometime
between Tuesday and Friday, with a low to moderate risk of Red Flag
conditions more briefly impacting parts of Santa Barbara and San
Luis Obispo counties. This wind event has the potential for strong
upper level wind support (especially in LA/Ventura counties),
bringing the potential for damaging wind gusts of 55 to 80 mph
(strongest in the mountains) in the Tuesday to Wednesday time
period, with at least moderate offshore winds likely into Thursday,
and possibly Friday. While there is a 50 percent probability of a
strong offshore wind event with extreme fire weather concerns, there
is also a 50 percent probability of a weak to moderate offshore wind
scenario. Humidities may remain elevated at the onset of offshore
winds on Tuesday, with the higher probability of widespread
humidities around 15 percent or less on Tuesday night or Wednesday.


$$

ECC024-031645-
San Luis Obispo County-
Discussion for San Luis Obispo ECC Dispatch
238 PM PST Thu Jan 2 2025

...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY ACROSS THE VALLEYS,
MOUNTAINS, AND FOOTHILLS OF LA/VENTURA COUNTIES DUE TO LOCALLY
BREEZY OFFSHORE WINDS WITH WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS, SHIFTING TO
INTERIOR MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO
BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES...

...ELEVATED TO BRIEF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LIKELY ON
SUNDAY DUE TO WEAK TO LOCALLY MODERATE OFFSHORE WINDS AND LOW
HUMIDITIES...

...SCENARIOS RANGING FROM A WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDSTORM AND
EXTREME FIRE-WEATHER RISK TO WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW FOR NEXT TUESDAY TO
THURSDAY -- EACH SCENARIO POSSIBLE BUT FAR FROM CERTAIN...

Localized northeast wind gusts between 20 and 35 mph will linger
this afternoon in the wind prone mountains, hills, and valleys of LA
and Ventura counties, with humidities between 8 and 20 percent
common, resulting in elevated fire weather conditions. Winds will
turn southeast to south tonight and onshore by Friday with improving
humidities, except lingering low humidities over the interior
mountains and Antelope Valley where elevated fire weather conditions
will continue. There is a chance of light rain over northern areas
Friday night. Behind this system, Northwest to north wind gusts of
30 to 45 mph are likely on Saturday over the wind prone areas,
however humidities will likely remain elevated between 25 and
40 percent. A return of weak to locally moderate offshore winds will
return across LA, Ventura, and San Luis Obispo counties, with gusts
mostly in the 20 to 40 mph range. The offshore winds combined with
humidities lowering to between 12 and 25 percent will bring elevated
to brief critical fire weather conditions to LA/Ventura counties on
Sunday.

Offshore winds will likely develop Tuesday through at least
Thursday, and possibly into Friday of next week. While there is
still some uncertainty in the evolution of next week`s weather
pattern, there is a moderate to high risk of an extend period  of
Red Flag conditions over Los Angeles and Ventura Counties sometime
between Tuesday and Friday, with a low to moderate risk of Red Flag
conditions more briefly impacting parts of Santa Barbara and San
Luis Obispo counties. This wind event has the potential for strong
upper level wind support (especially in LA/Ventura counties),
bringing the potential for damaging wind gusts of 55 to 80 mph
(strongest in the mountains) in the Tuesday to Wednesday time
period, with at least moderate offshore winds likely into Thursday,
and possibly Friday. While there is a 50 percent probability of a
strong offshore wind event with extreme fire weather concerns, there
is also a 50 percent probability of a weak to moderate offshore wind
scenario. Humidities may remain elevated at the onset of offshore
winds on Tuesday, with the higher probability of widespread
humidities around 15 percent or less on Tuesday night or Wednesday.


$$

ECC032-031645-
Ventura County excluding Los Padres National Forest-
Discussion for Ventura ECC Dispatch
238 PM PST Thu Jan 2 2025

...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY ACROSS THE VALLEYS,
MOUNTAINS, AND FOOTHILLS OF LA/VENTURA COUNTIES DUE TO LOCALLY
BREEZY OFFSHORE WINDS WITH WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS, SHIFTING TO
INTERIOR MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO
BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES...

...ELEVATED TO BRIEF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LIKELY ON
SUNDAY DUE TO WEAK TO LOCALLY MODERATE OFFSHORE WINDS AND LOW
HUMIDITIES...

...SCENARIOS RANGING FROM A WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDSTORM AND
EXTREME FIRE-WEATHER RISK TO WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW FOR NEXT TUESDAY TO
THURSDAY -- EACH SCENARIO POSSIBLE BUT FAR FROM CERTAIN...

Localized northeast wind gusts between 20 and 35 mph will linger
this afternoon in the wind prone mountains, hills, and valleys of LA
and Ventura counties, with humidities between 8 and 20 percent
common, resulting in elevated fire weather conditions. Winds will
turn southeast to south tonight and onshore by Friday with improving
humidities, except lingering low humidities over the interior
mountains and Antelope Valley where elevated fire weather conditions
will continue. There is a chance of light rain over northern areas
Friday night. Behind this system, Northwest to north wind gusts of
30 to 45 mph are likely on Saturday over the wind prone areas,
however humidities will likely remain elevated between 25 and
40 percent. A return of weak to locally moderate offshore winds will
return across LA, Ventura, and San Luis Obispo counties, with gusts
mostly in the 20 to 40 mph range. The offshore winds combined with
humidities lowering to between 12 and 25 percent will bring elevated
to brief critical fire weather conditions to LA/Ventura counties on
Sunday.

Offshore winds will likely develop Tuesday through at least
Thursday, and possibly into Friday of next week. While there is
still some uncertainty in the evolution of next week`s weather
pattern, there is a moderate to high risk of an extend period  of
Red Flag conditions over Los Angeles and Ventura Counties sometime
between Tuesday and Friday, with a low to moderate risk of Red Flag
conditions more briefly impacting parts of Santa Barbara and San
Luis Obispo counties. This wind event has the potential for strong
upper level wind support (especially in LA/Ventura counties),
bringing the potential for damaging wind gusts of 55 to 80 mph
(strongest in the mountains) in the Tuesday to Wednesday time
period, with at least moderate offshore winds likely into Thursday,
and possibly Friday. While there is a 50 percent probability of a
strong offshore wind event with extreme fire weather concerns, there
is also a 50 percent probability of a weak to moderate offshore wind
scenario. Humidities may remain elevated at the onset of offshore
winds on Tuesday, with the higher probability of widespread
humidities around 15 percent or less on Tuesday night or Wednesday.


$$

ECC030-031645-
Los Angeles County excluding Angeles National Forest-
Discussion for Los Angeles ECC Dispatch
238 PM PST Thu Jan 2 2025

...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY ACROSS THE VALLEYS,
MOUNTAINS, AND FOOTHILLS OF LA/VENTURA COUNTIES DUE TO LOCALLY
BREEZY OFFSHORE WINDS WITH WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS, SHIFTING TO
INTERIOR MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO
BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES...

...ELEVATED TO BRIEF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LIKELY ON
SUNDAY DUE TO WEAK TO LOCALLY MODERATE OFFSHORE WINDS AND LOW
HUMIDITIES...

...SCENARIOS RANGING FROM A WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDSTORM AND
EXTREME FIRE-WEATHER RISK TO WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW FOR NEXT TUESDAY TO
THURSDAY -- EACH SCENARIO POSSIBLE BUT FAR FROM CERTAIN...

Localized northeast wind gusts between 20 and 35 mph will linger
this afternoon in the wind prone mountains, hills, and valleys of LA
and Ventura counties, with humidities between 8 and 20 percent
common, resulting in elevated fire weather conditions. Winds will
turn southeast to south tonight and onshore by Friday with improving
humidities, except lingering low humidities over the interior
mountains and Antelope Valley where elevated fire weather conditions
will continue. There is a chance of light rain over northern areas
Friday night. Behind this system, Northwest to north wind gusts of
30 to 45 mph are likely on Saturday over the wind prone areas,
however humidities will likely remain elevated between 25 and
40 percent. A return of weak to locally moderate offshore winds will
return across LA, Ventura, and San Luis Obispo counties, with gusts
mostly in the 20 to 40 mph range. The offshore winds combined with
humidities lowering to between 12 and 25 percent will bring elevated
to brief critical fire weather conditions to LA/Ventura counties on
Sunday.

Offshore winds will likely develop Tuesday through at least
Thursday, and possibly into Friday of next week. While there is
still some uncertainty in the evolution of next week`s weather
pattern, there is a moderate to high risk of an extend period  of
Red Flag conditions over Los Angeles and Ventura Counties sometime
between Tuesday and Friday, with a low to moderate risk of Red Flag
conditions more briefly impacting parts of Santa Barbara and San
Luis Obispo counties. This wind event has the potential for strong
upper level wind support (especially in LA/Ventura counties),
bringing the potential for damaging wind gusts of 55 to 80 mph
(strongest in the mountains) in the Tuesday to Wednesday time
period, with at least moderate offshore winds likely into Thursday,
and possibly Friday. While there is a 50 percent probability of a
strong offshore wind event with extreme fire weather concerns, there
is also a 50 percent probability of a weak to moderate offshore wind
scenario. Humidities may remain elevated at the onset of offshore
winds on Tuesday, with the higher probability of widespread
humidities around 15 percent or less on Tuesday night or Wednesday.


$$