Land Management Forecasts
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA
931 FNUS86 KLOX 312223 FWLLOX ECCDA Discussions National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 323 PM PDT Sun Aug 31 2025 ECC029-011630- Los Padres National Forest- Discussion for Vandenberg ECC Dispatch 323 PM PDT Sun Aug 31 2025 ...Discussion from Monterey... ...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT IN THE INTERIOR MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE LABOR DAY DUE TO LOW RH AND MODERATE AFTERNOON BREEZES... We remain on the western periphery of a strong high pressure system. Large scale sinking air, compressional warming and drying aloft, a strong low level temperature inversion coupled with diurnal late August solar warming will continue to produce hot and dry conditions over the interior this afternoon and Labor Day. Conditions remain cooler along the immediate coast due to a shallow marine layer and generally light to locally moderate afternoon sea breezes. Above the shallow marine layer very low daytime humidities and poor overnight recoveries have persisted just away from the immediate coast. Winds remain onshore, but breezy afternoon winds will elevate the fire weather threat in the interior mountains, especially through favored gaps and passes. We are closely monitoring an upper low 500 miles southwest of San Francisco that is forecast to move northeastward and pass across the district later Monday and Tuesday. Chances are low at the moment, but if the pattern evolves with improved timing of the mid-level moisture and best lift associated with the upper level low we could see isolated convection across portions of the Bay Area, East Bay Hills and North Bay. Otherwise there`ll be a deepening of the marine layer with late night and morning spotty light coastal drizzle possible mid week. Note : All winds are 20-foot Winds Unless otherwise specified. Thunderstorms imply strong, gusty and erratic winds. ...Discussion from Los Angeles/Oxnard... ...HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH LABOR DAY WITH ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS INTERIOR INCLUDING RISK OF LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRES... ...SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING INCLUDING COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS, WITH MAIN RISKS BEING ISOLATED DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES AND STRONG/ERRATIC DOWNBURST/OUTFLOW WINDS... ...POTENTIAL INCREASE IN MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BRING THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY, MAINLY MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS, WITH ENHANCED RISK OF LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRES... As high pressure aloft reestablishes and builds back into the Four Corners Region, hot and dry conditions will persist away from the immediate coast through Tuesday. During this period, highs of 95 to 106 will be common across the valleys, lower mountains, and deserts. Similar hot temperatures may persist into Wednesday, before gradually cooling on Thursday and Friday. The hotter temperatures combined with increased instability will bring deeper mixing heights which are expected to rise to between 12,000 and 17,000 feet each afternoon across the interior through Wednesday. As a result, there is an elevated risk for large plume dominated fires across the interior. Humidities between 10 and 25 percent will be common over the warmest valleys, lower mountains, and deserts through Monday. then potential humidity increase by Tuesday or Wednesday due to the influx of monsoonal moistures. Increasing mid level moisture associated with an upper level disturbance will bring a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms by Monday night into Tuesday morning for areas south of Point Conception, including coastal and valley areas. Due to the expected limited rainfall during this time, the main risks with any thunderstorm activity Monday night into Tuesday will likely be isolated dry lightning strikes and strong/erratic downburst/outflow winds gusting to 50 mph. From Tuesday afternoon through Friday, the focus will be more traditional mountain/desert shower and thunderstorm activity, with the best chances (15-30%) over the San Gabriel mountains and Antelope Valley. but there is also a 5-20% chance of thunderstorms for other portions of Southwest California including coastal/valley areas. $$ ECC028-011630- Santa Barbara County excluding Los Padres National Forest- Discussion for Santa Barbara ECC Dispatch 323 PM PDT Sun Aug 31 2025 ...HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH LABOR DAY WITH ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS INTERIOR INCLUDING RISK OF LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRES... ...SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING INCLUDING COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS, WITH MAIN RISKS BEING ISOLATED DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES AND STRONG/ERRATIC DOWNBURST/OUTFLOW WINDS... ...POTENTIAL INCREASE IN MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BRING THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY, MAINLY MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS, WITH ENHANCED RISK OF LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRES... As high pressure aloft reestablishes and builds back into the Four Corners Region, hot and dry conditions will persist away from the immediate coast through Tuesday. During this period, highs of 95 to 106 will be common across the valleys, lower mountains, and deserts. Similar hot temperatures may persist into Wednesday, before gradually cooling on Thursday and Friday. The hotter temperatures combined with increased instability will bring deeper mixing heights which are expected to rise to between 12,000 and 17,000 feet each afternoon across the interior through Wednesday. As a result, there is an elevated risk for large plume dominated fires across the interior. Humidities between 10 and 25 percent will be common over the warmest valleys, lower mountains, and deserts through Monday. then potential humidity increase by Tuesday or Wednesday due to the influx of monsoonal moistures. Increasing mid level moisture associated with an upper level disturbance will bring a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms by Monday night into Tuesday morning for areas south of Point Conception, including coastal and valley areas. Due to the expected limited rainfall during this time, the main risks with any thunderstorm activity Monday night into Tuesday will likely be isolated dry lightning strikes and strong/erratic downburst/outflow winds gusting to 50 mph. From Tuesday afternoon through Friday, the focus will be more traditional mountain/desert shower and thunderstorm activity, with the best chances (15-30%) over the San Gabriel mountains and Antelope Valley. but there is also a 5-20% chance of thunderstorms for other portions of Southwest California including coastal/valley areas. $$ ECC031-011630- Angeles National Forest- Discussion for Lancaster ECC Dispatch 323 PM PDT Sun Aug 31 2025 ...HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH LABOR DAY WITH ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS INTERIOR INCLUDING RISK OF LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRES... ...SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING INCLUDING COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS, WITH MAIN RISKS BEING ISOLATED DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES AND STRONG/ERRATIC DOWNBURST/OUTFLOW WINDS... ...POTENTIAL INCREASE IN MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BRING THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY, MAINLY MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS, WITH ENHANCED RISK OF LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRES... As high pressure aloft reestablishes and builds back into the Four Corners Region, hot and dry conditions will persist away from the immediate coast through Tuesday. During this period, highs of 95 to 106 will be common across the valleys, lower mountains, and deserts. Similar hot temperatures may persist into Wednesday, before gradually cooling on Thursday and Friday. The hotter temperatures combined with increased instability will bring deeper mixing heights which are expected to rise to between 12,000 and 17,000 feet each afternoon across the interior through Wednesday. As a result, there is an elevated risk for large plume dominated fires across the interior. Humidities between 10 and 25 percent will be common over the warmest valleys, lower mountains, and deserts through Monday. then potential humidity increase by Tuesday or Wednesday due to the influx of monsoonal moistures. Increasing mid level moisture associated with an upper level disturbance will bring a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms by Monday night into Tuesday morning for areas south of Point Conception, including coastal and valley areas. Due to the expected limited rainfall during this time, the main risks with any thunderstorm activity Monday night into Tuesday will likely be isolated dry lightning strikes and strong/erratic downburst/outflow winds gusting to 50 mph. From Tuesday afternoon through Friday, the focus will be more traditional mountain/desert shower and thunderstorm activity, with the best chances (15-30%) over the San Gabriel mountains and Antelope Valley. but there is also a 5-20% chance of thunderstorms for other portions of Southwest California including coastal/valley areas. $$ ECC024-011630- San Luis Obispo County- Discussion for San Luis Obispo ECC Dispatch 323 PM PDT Sun Aug 31 2025 ...HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH LABOR DAY WITH ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS INTERIOR INCLUDING RISK OF LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRES... ...SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING INCLUDING COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS, WITH MAIN RISKS BEING ISOLATED DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES AND STRONG/ERRATIC DOWNBURST/OUTFLOW WINDS... ...POTENTIAL INCREASE IN MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BRING THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY, MAINLY MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS, WITH ENHANCED RISK OF LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRES... As high pressure aloft reestablishes and builds back into the Four Corners Region, hot and dry conditions will persist away from the immediate coast through Tuesday. During this period, highs of 95 to 106 will be common across the valleys, lower mountains, and deserts. Similar hot temperatures may persist into Wednesday, before gradually cooling on Thursday and Friday. The hotter temperatures combined with increased instability will bring deeper mixing heights which are expected to rise to between 12,000 and 17,000 feet each afternoon across the interior through Wednesday. As a result, there is an elevated risk for large plume dominated fires across the interior. Humidities between 10 and 25 percent will be common over the warmest valleys, lower mountains, and deserts through Monday. then potential humidity increase by Tuesday or Wednesday due to the influx of monsoonal moistures. Increasing mid level moisture associated with an upper level disturbance will bring a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms by Monday night into Tuesday morning for areas south of Point Conception, including coastal and valley areas. Due to the expected limited rainfall during this time, the main risks with any thunderstorm activity Monday night into Tuesday will likely be isolated dry lightning strikes and strong/erratic downburst/outflow winds gusting to 50 mph. From Tuesday afternoon through Friday, the focus will be more traditional mountain/desert shower and thunderstorm activity, with the best chances (15-30%) over the San Gabriel mountains and Antelope Valley. but there is also a 5-20% chance of thunderstorms for other portions of Southwest California including coastal/valley areas. $$ ECC032-011630- Ventura County excluding Los Padres National Forest- Discussion for Ventura ECC Dispatch 323 PM PDT Sun Aug 31 2025 ...HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH LABOR DAY WITH ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS INTERIOR INCLUDING RISK OF LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRES... ...SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING INCLUDING COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS, WITH MAIN RISKS BEING ISOLATED DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES AND STRONG/ERRATIC DOWNBURST/OUTFLOW WINDS... ...POTENTIAL INCREASE IN MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BRING THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY, MAINLY MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS, WITH ENHANCED RISK OF LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRES... As high pressure aloft reestablishes and builds back into the Four Corners Region, hot and dry conditions will persist away from the immediate coast through Tuesday. During this period, highs of 95 to 106 will be common across the valleys, lower mountains, and deserts. Similar hot temperatures may persist into Wednesday, before gradually cooling on Thursday and Friday. The hotter temperatures combined with increased instability will bring deeper mixing heights which are expected to rise to between 12,000 and 17,000 feet each afternoon across the interior through Wednesday. As a result, there is an elevated risk for large plume dominated fires across the interior. Humidities between 10 and 25 percent will be common over the warmest valleys, lower mountains, and deserts through Monday. then potential humidity increase by Tuesday or Wednesday due to the influx of monsoonal moistures. Increasing mid level moisture associated with an upper level disturbance will bring a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms by Monday night into Tuesday morning for areas south of Point Conception, including coastal and valley areas. Due to the expected limited rainfall during this time, the main risks with any thunderstorm activity Monday night into Tuesday will likely be isolated dry lightning strikes and strong/erratic downburst/outflow winds gusting to 50 mph. From Tuesday afternoon through Friday, the focus will be more traditional mountain/desert shower and thunderstorm activity, with the best chances (15-30%) over the San Gabriel mountains and Antelope Valley. but there is also a 5-20% chance of thunderstorms for other portions of Southwest California including coastal/valley areas. $$ ECC030-011630- Los Angeles County excluding Angeles National Forest- Discussion for Los Angeles ECC Dispatch 323 PM PDT Sun Aug 31 2025 ...HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH LABOR DAY WITH ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS INTERIOR INCLUDING RISK OF LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRES... ...SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING INCLUDING COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS, WITH MAIN RISKS BEING ISOLATED DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES AND STRONG/ERRATIC DOWNBURST/OUTFLOW WINDS... ...POTENTIAL INCREASE IN MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BRING THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY, MAINLY MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS, WITH ENHANCED RISK OF LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRES... As high pressure aloft reestablishes and builds back into the Four Corners Region, hot and dry conditions will persist away from the immediate coast through Tuesday. During this period, highs of 95 to 106 will be common across the valleys, lower mountains, and deserts. Similar hot temperatures may persist into Wednesday, before gradually cooling on Thursday and Friday. The hotter temperatures combined with increased instability will bring deeper mixing heights which are expected to rise to between 12,000 and 17,000 feet each afternoon across the interior through Wednesday. As a result, there is an elevated risk for large plume dominated fires across the interior. Humidities between 10 and 25 percent will be common over the warmest valleys, lower mountains, and deserts through Monday. then potential humidity increase by Tuesday or Wednesday due to the influx of monsoonal moistures. Increasing mid level moisture associated with an upper level disturbance will bring a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms by Monday night into Tuesday morning for areas south of Point Conception, including coastal and valley areas. Due to the expected limited rainfall during this time, the main risks with any thunderstorm activity Monday night into Tuesday will likely be isolated dry lightning strikes and strong/erratic downburst/outflow winds gusting to 50 mph. From Tuesday afternoon through Friday, the focus will be more traditional mountain/desert shower and thunderstorm activity, with the best chances (15-30%) over the San Gabriel mountains and Antelope Valley. but there is also a 5-20% chance of thunderstorms for other portions of Southwest California including coastal/valley areas. $$