Land Management Forecasts
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA
818 FNUS86 KLOX 182221 FWLLOX ECCDA Discussions National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 321 PM PDT Fri Jul 18 2025 ECC029-191630- Los Padres National Forest- Discussion for Vandenberg ECC Dispatch 321 PM PDT Fri Jul 18 2025 ...Discussion from Monterey... Warming and drying conditions continue into the weekend as the marine layer compresses and onshore flow see a slight decrease. The marine layer will remain intact along the coast keeping cooler and wetter conditions, but higher elevations and more interior areas will still experience elevated fire weather concerns as the marine layer fails to reach those areas. Northerly winds will strengthen on Monday increasing fire weather conditions, especially the East Bay. Note : All winds are 20-foot Winds Unless otherwise specified. Thunderstorms imply strong, gusty and erratic winds. ...Discussion from Los Angeles/Oxnard... ...MONSOONAL THUNDERSTORM RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF LA COUNTY AND VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS... ...SLIGHT CHANCE OF LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN SAN GABRIELS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON... There is a 15-30 percent chance of monsoonal showers and thunderstorms through this evening across portions of Los Angeles County and the Ventura County mountain. The highest probability will be this afternoon, especially across the San Gabriels and eastern Antelope Valley. With weak upper level flow from the northeast, there is a 10-15 percent chance of storms that develop over the San Gabriel mountains to drift into the San Gabriel Valley(especially in the foothills) and LA basin. Any storms that develop over Los Angeles county will have a higher likelihood of being wetter and slow moving, with locally heavy downpours and associated flash flooding/roadway flooding possible (especially in the San Gabriels). There is also a 20-30 percent chance of reaching debris flow thresholds across the Bridge Fire burn scar, and 5-10 percent over the Eaton burn scar. While being wetter, any storms over LA county could still see some isolated dry lightning strikes on the periphery of storms. While the threat of thunderstorms over the Ventura County mountains is slightly less than LA county, it`s limited moisture profile will make it a higher threat for isolated dry lightning strikes and gusty downdraft winds. New fire starts from dry lighting, strong to locally damaging winds, and localized flash flooding are possible with any monsoon thunderstorms today. A slight chance of thunderstorms will linger over the eastern San Gabriels and the adjacent foothills of the Antelope Valley on Saturday afternoon. There is a 40 percent chance that the monsoon disrupts the marine layer, especially for LA County, leading to the significant warming trends near the coast. Seasonably warm, dry, and breezy conditions will resume this weekend and likely continue into next week. Gradual warming trends are possible towards the end of next week. $$ ECC028-191630- Santa Barbara County excluding Los Padres National Forest- Discussion for Santa Barbara ECC Dispatch 321 PM PDT Fri Jul 18 2025 ...MONSOONAL THUNDERSTORM RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF LA COUNTY AND VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS... ...SLIGHT CHANCE OF LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN SAN GABRIELS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON... There is a 15-30 percent chance of monsoonal showers and thunderstorms through this evening across portions of Los Angeles County and the Ventura County mountain. The highest probability will be this afternoon, especially across the San Gabriels and eastern Antelope Valley. With weak upper level flow from the northeast, there is a 10-15 percent chance of storms that develop over the San Gabriel mountains to drift into the San Gabriel Valley(especially in the foothills) and LA basin. Any storms that develop over Los Angeles county will have a higher likelihood of being wetter and slow moving, with locally heavy downpours and associated flash flooding/roadway flooding possible (especially in the San Gabriels). There is also a 20-30 percent chance of reaching debris flow thresholds across the Bridge Fire burn scar, and 5-10 percent over the Eaton burn scar. While being wetter, any storms over LA county could still see some isolated dry lightning strikes on the periphery of storms. While the threat of thunderstorms over the Ventura County mountains is slightly less than LA county, it`s limited moisture profile will make it a higher threat for isolated dry lightning strikes and gusty downdraft winds. New fire starts from dry lighting, strong to locally damaging winds, and localized flash flooding are possible with any monsoon thunderstorms today. A slight chance of thunderstorms will linger over the eastern San Gabriels and the adjacent foothills of the Antelope Valley on Saturday afternoon. There is a 40 percent chance that the monsoon disrupts the marine layer, especially for LA County, leading to the significant warming trends near the coast. Seasonably warm, dry, and breezy conditions will resume this weekend and likely continue into next week. Gradual warming trends are possible towards the end of next week. $$ ECC031-191630- Angeles National Forest- Discussion for Lancaster ECC Dispatch 321 PM PDT Fri Jul 18 2025 ...MONSOONAL THUNDERSTORM RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF LA COUNTY AND VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS... ...SLIGHT CHANCE OF LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN SAN GABRIELS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON... There is a 15-30 percent chance of monsoonal showers and thunderstorms through this evening across portions of Los Angeles County and the Ventura County mountain. The highest probability will be this afternoon, especially across the San Gabriels and eastern Antelope Valley. With weak upper level flow from the northeast, there is a 10-15 percent chance of storms that develop over the San Gabriel mountains to drift into the San Gabriel Valley(especially in the foothills) and LA basin. Any storms that develop over Los Angeles county will have a higher likelihood of being wetter and slow moving, with locally heavy downpours and associated flash flooding/roadway flooding possible (especially in the San Gabriels). There is also a 20-30 percent chance of reaching debris flow thresholds across the Bridge Fire burn scar, and 5-10 percent over the Eaton burn scar. While being wetter, any storms over LA county could still see some isolated dry lightning strikes on the periphery of storms. While the threat of thunderstorms over the Ventura County mountains is slightly less than LA county, it`s limited moisture profile will make it a higher threat for isolated dry lightning strikes and gusty downdraft winds. New fire starts from dry lighting, strong to locally damaging winds, and localized flash flooding are possible with any monsoon thunderstorms today. A slight chance of thunderstorms will linger over the eastern San Gabriels and the adjacent foothills of the Antelope Valley on Saturday afternoon. There is a 40 percent chance that the monsoon disrupts the marine layer, especially for LA County, leading to the significant warming trends near the coast. Seasonably warm, dry, and breezy conditions will resume this weekend and likely continue into next week. Gradual warming trends are possible towards the end of next week. $$ ECC024-191630- San Luis Obispo County- Discussion for San Luis Obispo ECC Dispatch 321 PM PDT Fri Jul 18 2025 ...MONSOONAL THUNDERSTORM RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF LA COUNTY AND VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS... ...SLIGHT CHANCE OF LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN SAN GABRIELS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON... There is a 15-30 percent chance of monsoonal showers and thunderstorms through this evening across portions of Los Angeles County and the Ventura County mountain. The highest probability will be this afternoon, especially across the San Gabriels and eastern Antelope Valley. With weak upper level flow from the northeast, there is a 10-15 percent chance of storms that develop over the San Gabriel mountains to drift into the San Gabriel Valley(especially in the foothills) and LA basin. Any storms that develop over Los Angeles county will have a higher likelihood of being wetter and slow moving, with locally heavy downpours and associated flash flooding/roadway flooding possible (especially in the San Gabriels). There is also a 20-30 percent chance of reaching debris flow thresholds across the Bridge Fire burn scar, and 5-10 percent over the Eaton burn scar. While being wetter, any storms over LA county could still see some isolated dry lightning strikes on the periphery of storms. While the threat of thunderstorms over the Ventura County mountains is slightly less than LA county, it`s limited moisture profile will make it a higher threat for isolated dry lightning strikes and gusty downdraft winds. New fire starts from dry lighting, strong to locally damaging winds, and localized flash flooding are possible with any monsoon thunderstorms today. A slight chance of thunderstorms will linger over the eastern San Gabriels and the adjacent foothills of the Antelope Valley on Saturday afternoon. There is a 40 percent chance that the monsoon disrupts the marine layer, especially for LA County, leading to the significant warming trends near the coast. Seasonably warm, dry, and breezy conditions will resume this weekend and likely continue into next week. Gradual warming trends are possible towards the end of next week. $$ ECC032-191630- Ventura County excluding Los Padres National Forest- Discussion for Ventura ECC Dispatch 321 PM PDT Fri Jul 18 2025 ...MONSOONAL THUNDERSTORM RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF LA COUNTY AND VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS... ...SLIGHT CHANCE OF LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN SAN GABRIELS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON... There is a 15-30 percent chance of monsoonal showers and thunderstorms through this evening across portions of Los Angeles County and the Ventura County mountain. The highest probability will be this afternoon, especially across the San Gabriels and eastern Antelope Valley. With weak upper level flow from the northeast, there is a 10-15 percent chance of storms that develop over the San Gabriel mountains to drift into the San Gabriel Valley(especially in the foothills) and LA basin. Any storms that develop over Los Angeles county will have a higher likelihood of being wetter and slow moving, with locally heavy downpours and associated flash flooding/roadway flooding possible (especially in the San Gabriels). There is also a 20-30 percent chance of reaching debris flow thresholds across the Bridge Fire burn scar, and 5-10 percent over the Eaton burn scar. While being wetter, any storms over LA county could still see some isolated dry lightning strikes on the periphery of storms. While the threat of thunderstorms over the Ventura County mountains is slightly less than LA county, it`s limited moisture profile will make it a higher threat for isolated dry lightning strikes and gusty downdraft winds. New fire starts from dry lighting, strong to locally damaging winds, and localized flash flooding are possible with any monsoon thunderstorms today. A slight chance of thunderstorms will linger over the eastern San Gabriels and the adjacent foothills of the Antelope Valley on Saturday afternoon. There is a 40 percent chance that the monsoon disrupts the marine layer, especially for LA County, leading to the significant warming trends near the coast. Seasonably warm, dry, and breezy conditions will resume this weekend and likely continue into next week. Gradual warming trends are possible towards the end of next week. $$ ECC030-191630- Los Angeles County excluding Angeles National Forest- Discussion for Los Angeles ECC Dispatch 321 PM PDT Fri Jul 18 2025 ...MONSOONAL THUNDERSTORM RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF LA COUNTY AND VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS... ...SLIGHT CHANCE OF LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN SAN GABRIELS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON... There is a 15-30 percent chance of monsoonal showers and thunderstorms through this evening across portions of Los Angeles County and the Ventura County mountain. The highest probability will be this afternoon, especially across the San Gabriels and eastern Antelope Valley. With weak upper level flow from the northeast, there is a 10-15 percent chance of storms that develop over the San Gabriel mountains to drift into the San Gabriel Valley(especially in the foothills) and LA basin. Any storms that develop over Los Angeles county will have a higher likelihood of being wetter and slow moving, with locally heavy downpours and associated flash flooding/roadway flooding possible (especially in the San Gabriels). There is also a 20-30 percent chance of reaching debris flow thresholds across the Bridge Fire burn scar, and 5-10 percent over the Eaton burn scar. While being wetter, any storms over LA county could still see some isolated dry lightning strikes on the periphery of storms. While the threat of thunderstorms over the Ventura County mountains is slightly less than LA county, it`s limited moisture profile will make it a higher threat for isolated dry lightning strikes and gusty downdraft winds. New fire starts from dry lighting, strong to locally damaging winds, and localized flash flooding are possible with any monsoon thunderstorms today. A slight chance of thunderstorms will linger over the eastern San Gabriels and the adjacent foothills of the Antelope Valley on Saturday afternoon. There is a 40 percent chance that the monsoon disrupts the marine layer, especially for LA County, leading to the significant warming trends near the coast. Seasonably warm, dry, and breezy conditions will resume this weekend and likely continue into next week. Gradual warming trends are possible towards the end of next week. $$