Land Management Forecasts
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA
554 FNUS86 KLOX 011645 FWLLOX ECCDA Discussions National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 945 AM PDT Mon Sep 1 2025 ECC029-021045- Los Padres National Forest- Discussion for Vandenberg ECC Dispatch 945 AM PDT Mon Sep 1 2025 ...Discussion from Monterey... ...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT IN THE INTERIOR MOUNTAINS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING DUE TO LOW RH AND MODERATE AFTERNOON BREEZES... One more day of warm and dry conditions leading to elevated fire weather concerns before a cooling trend sets in Tuesday, and will continue through the remainder of the extended forecast. Elevated interior locations and locations above the compressed marine layer closer to the coast will see poor RH recovery overnight remaining in the 10%-25% range. Onshore flow will increase this afternoon out ahead of an upper level low approaching from the southwest while we transition from the influence of ridging to our east and the arrival of the offshore disturbance to our southwest. We are also watching a low probability-high impact scenario for elevated thunderstorms as early as late this afternoon that will continue into Tuesday. The North Bay, Bay Area and East Bay Hills are the favored locations for the non-zero chances of convection, with cloud to ground lightning and gusty winds as the primary concern. Note : All winds are 20-foot Winds Unless otherwise specified. Thunderstorms imply strong, gusty and erratic winds. ...Discussion from Los Angeles/Oxnard... ...HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS TODAY WITH ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS INTERIOR INCLUDING RISK OF LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRES... ...SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING INCLUDING COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS, WITH MAIN RISKS BEING ISOLATED DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES AND STRONG/ERRATIC DOWNBURST/OUTFLOW WINDS... ...POTENTIAL INCREASE IN MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BRING THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY, MAINLY MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS, WITH INCREASED RISK OF BRIEF HEAVIER RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS...CONTINUED ENHANCED RISK OF LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRES AWAY FROM MONSOON THUNDERSTORMS... Hot and dry conditions will persist today away from the immediate coast today, with high temperatures of 95 to 107 degrees across the valleys, lower mountains, and deserts. Similar hot temperatures may persist into Tuesday, with warmer temperatures potentially occurring near the coast due to weakening onshore flow. The hotter temperatures combined with increased instability will bring deeper mixing heights which are expected to rise to between 12,000 and 17,000 feet each afternoon across the interior through Tuesday. As a result, there is an elevated risk for large plume dominated fires across the interior. Humidities between 10 and 25 percent will be common over the warmest valleys, lower mountains, and deserts today. then potential humidity increase by Tuesday or Wednesday due to the influx of monsoonal moistures. Increasing mid level moisture and instability associated with an upper level disturbance will bring a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms tonight into Tuesday morning for areas south of Point Conception, including coastal and valley areas. Due to the expected limited rainfall during this time, the main risks with any thunderstorm activity tonight into Tuesday morning will likely be isolated dry lightning strikes and strong/erratic downburst/outflow winds gusting to 50 mph. These isolated dry lightning strikes will bring an increased risk of lightning induced fires across the region, especially considering the critically dry fuels. If the dry lightning coverage were to increase, a short fuse Red Flag Warning may need to be considereed. From Tuesday afternoon through Friday, there will be higher chances of monsoonal shower and thunderstorm activity across the mountains and deserts (especially LA/Ventura counties), with a smaller chance for coasts and valleys. With wetter storms expected, the main risks during this time frame will be the potential for brief heavy rainfall and flooding threats in the mountains and deserts, along with a continued threat of gusty winds. The potential for strongest outflow winds up to 50 mph will be Tuesday afternoon into early evening across LA county, especially Antelope Valley, San Gabriel mountains, and San Gabriel Valley. $$ ECC028-021045- Santa Barbara County excluding Los Padres National Forest- Discussion for Santa Barbara ECC Dispatch 945 AM PDT Mon Sep 1 2025 ...HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS TODAY WITH ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS INTERIOR INCLUDING RISK OF LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRES... ...SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING INCLUDING COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS, WITH MAIN RISKS BEING ISOLATED DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES AND STRONG/ERRATIC DOWNBURST/OUTFLOW WINDS... ...POTENTIAL INCREASE IN MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BRING THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY, MAINLY MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS, WITH INCREASED RISK OF BRIEF HEAVIER RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS...CONTINUED ENHANCED RISK OF LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRES AWAY FROM MONSOON THUNDERSTORMS... Hot and dry conditions will persist today away from the immediate coast today, with high temperatures of 95 to 107 degrees across the valleys, lower mountains, and deserts. Similar hot temperatures may persist into Tuesday, with warmer temperatures potentially occurring near the coast due to weakening onshore flow. The hotter temperatures combined with increased instability will bring deeper mixing heights which are expected to rise to between 12,000 and 17,000 feet each afternoon across the interior through Tuesday. As a result, there is an elevated risk for large plume dominated fires across the interior. Humidities between 10 and 25 percent will be common over the warmest valleys, lower mountains, and deserts today. then potential humidity increase by Tuesday or Wednesday due to the influx of monsoonal moistures. Increasing mid level moisture and instability associated with an upper level disturbance will bring a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms tonight into Tuesday morning for areas south of Point Conception, including coastal and valley areas. Due to the expected limited rainfall during this time, the main risks with any thunderstorm activity tonight into Tuesday morning will likely be isolated dry lightning strikes and strong/erratic downburst/outflow winds gusting to 50 mph. These isolated dry lightning strikes will bring an increased risk of lightning induced fires across the region, especially considering the critically dry fuels. If the dry lightning coverage were to increase, a short fuse Red Flag Warning may need to be considereed. From Tuesday afternoon through Friday, there will be higher chances of monsoonal shower and thunderstorm activity across the mountains and deserts (especially LA/Ventura counties), with a smaller chance for coasts and valleys. With wetter storms expected, the main risks during this time frame will be the potential for brief heavy rainfall and flooding threats in the mountains and deserts, along with a continued threat of gusty winds. The potential for strongest outflow winds up to 50 mph will be Tuesday afternoon into early evening across LA county, especially Antelope Valley, San Gabriel mountains, and San Gabriel Valley. $$ ECC031-021045- Angeles National Forest- Discussion for Lancaster ECC Dispatch 945 AM PDT Mon Sep 1 2025 ...HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS TODAY WITH ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS INTERIOR INCLUDING RISK OF LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRES... ...SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING INCLUDING COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS, WITH MAIN RISKS BEING ISOLATED DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES AND STRONG/ERRATIC DOWNBURST/OUTFLOW WINDS... ...POTENTIAL INCREASE IN MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BRING THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY, MAINLY MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS, WITH INCREASED RISK OF BRIEF HEAVIER RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS...CONTINUED ENHANCED RISK OF LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRES AWAY FROM MONSOON THUNDERSTORMS... Hot and dry conditions will persist today away from the immediate coast today, with high temperatures of 95 to 107 degrees across the valleys, lower mountains, and deserts. Similar hot temperatures may persist into Tuesday, with warmer temperatures potentially occurring near the coast due to weakening onshore flow. The hotter temperatures combined with increased instability will bring deeper mixing heights which are expected to rise to between 12,000 and 17,000 feet each afternoon across the interior through Tuesday. As a result, there is an elevated risk for large plume dominated fires across the interior. Humidities between 10 and 25 percent will be common over the warmest valleys, lower mountains, and deserts today. then potential humidity increase by Tuesday or Wednesday due to the influx of monsoonal moistures. Increasing mid level moisture and instability associated with an upper level disturbance will bring a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms tonight into Tuesday morning for areas south of Point Conception, including coastal and valley areas. Due to the expected limited rainfall during this time, the main risks with any thunderstorm activity tonight into Tuesday morning will likely be isolated dry lightning strikes and strong/erratic downburst/outflow winds gusting to 50 mph. These isolated dry lightning strikes will bring an increased risk of lightning induced fires across the region, especially considering the critically dry fuels. If the dry lightning coverage were to increase, a short fuse Red Flag Warning may need to be considereed. From Tuesday afternoon through Friday, there will be higher chances of monsoonal shower and thunderstorm activity across the mountains and deserts (especially LA/Ventura counties), with a smaller chance for coasts and valleys. With wetter storms expected, the main risks during this time frame will be the potential for brief heavy rainfall and flooding threats in the mountains and deserts, along with a continued threat of gusty winds. The potential for strongest outflow winds up to 50 mph will be Tuesday afternoon into early evening across LA county, especially Antelope Valley, San Gabriel mountains, and San Gabriel Valley. $$ ECC024-021045- San Luis Obispo County- Discussion for San Luis Obispo ECC Dispatch 945 AM PDT Mon Sep 1 2025 ...HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS TODAY WITH ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS INTERIOR INCLUDING RISK OF LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRES... ...SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING INCLUDING COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS, WITH MAIN RISKS BEING ISOLATED DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES AND STRONG/ERRATIC DOWNBURST/OUTFLOW WINDS... ...POTENTIAL INCREASE IN MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BRING THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY, MAINLY MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS, WITH INCREASED RISK OF BRIEF HEAVIER RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS...CONTINUED ENHANCED RISK OF LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRES AWAY FROM MONSOON THUNDERSTORMS... Hot and dry conditions will persist today away from the immediate coast today, with high temperatures of 95 to 107 degrees across the valleys, lower mountains, and deserts. Similar hot temperatures may persist into Tuesday, with warmer temperatures potentially occurring near the coast due to weakening onshore flow. The hotter temperatures combined with increased instability will bring deeper mixing heights which are expected to rise to between 12,000 and 17,000 feet each afternoon across the interior through Tuesday. As a result, there is an elevated risk for large plume dominated fires across the interior. Humidities between 10 and 25 percent will be common over the warmest valleys, lower mountains, and deserts today. then potential humidity increase by Tuesday or Wednesday due to the influx of monsoonal moistures. Increasing mid level moisture and instability associated with an upper level disturbance will bring a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms tonight into Tuesday morning for areas south of Point Conception, including coastal and valley areas. Due to the expected limited rainfall during this time, the main risks with any thunderstorm activity tonight into Tuesday morning will likely be isolated dry lightning strikes and strong/erratic downburst/outflow winds gusting to 50 mph. These isolated dry lightning strikes will bring an increased risk of lightning induced fires across the region, especially considering the critically dry fuels. If the dry lightning coverage were to increase, a short fuse Red Flag Warning may need to be considereed. From Tuesday afternoon through Friday, there will be higher chances of monsoonal shower and thunderstorm activity across the mountains and deserts (especially LA/Ventura counties), with a smaller chance for coasts and valleys. With wetter storms expected, the main risks during this time frame will be the potential for brief heavy rainfall and flooding threats in the mountains and deserts, along with a continued threat of gusty winds. The potential for strongest outflow winds up to 50 mph will be Tuesday afternoon into early evening across LA county, especially Antelope Valley, San Gabriel mountains, and San Gabriel Valley. $$ ECC032-021045- Ventura County excluding Los Padres National Forest- Discussion for Ventura ECC Dispatch 945 AM PDT Mon Sep 1 2025 ...HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS TODAY WITH ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS INTERIOR INCLUDING RISK OF LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRES... ...SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING INCLUDING COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS, WITH MAIN RISKS BEING ISOLATED DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES AND STRONG/ERRATIC DOWNBURST/OUTFLOW WINDS... ...POTENTIAL INCREASE IN MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BRING THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY, MAINLY MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS, WITH INCREASED RISK OF BRIEF HEAVIER RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS...CONTINUED ENHANCED RISK OF LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRES AWAY FROM MONSOON THUNDERSTORMS... Hot and dry conditions will persist today away from the immediate coast today, with high temperatures of 95 to 107 degrees across the valleys, lower mountains, and deserts. Similar hot temperatures may persist into Tuesday, with warmer temperatures potentially occurring near the coast due to weakening onshore flow. The hotter temperatures combined with increased instability will bring deeper mixing heights which are expected to rise to between 12,000 and 17,000 feet each afternoon across the interior through Tuesday. As a result, there is an elevated risk for large plume dominated fires across the interior. Humidities between 10 and 25 percent will be common over the warmest valleys, lower mountains, and deserts today. then potential humidity increase by Tuesday or Wednesday due to the influx of monsoonal moistures. Increasing mid level moisture and instability associated with an upper level disturbance will bring a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms tonight into Tuesday morning for areas south of Point Conception, including coastal and valley areas. Due to the expected limited rainfall during this time, the main risks with any thunderstorm activity tonight into Tuesday morning will likely be isolated dry lightning strikes and strong/erratic downburst/outflow winds gusting to 50 mph. These isolated dry lightning strikes will bring an increased risk of lightning induced fires across the region, especially considering the critically dry fuels. If the dry lightning coverage were to increase, a short fuse Red Flag Warning may need to be considereed. From Tuesday afternoon through Friday, there will be higher chances of monsoonal shower and thunderstorm activity across the mountains and deserts (especially LA/Ventura counties), with a smaller chance for coasts and valleys. With wetter storms expected, the main risks during this time frame will be the potential for brief heavy rainfall and flooding threats in the mountains and deserts, along with a continued threat of gusty winds. The potential for strongest outflow winds up to 50 mph will be Tuesday afternoon into early evening across LA county, especially Antelope Valley, San Gabriel mountains, and San Gabriel Valley. $$ ECC030-021045- Los Angeles County excluding Angeles National Forest- Discussion for Los Angeles ECC Dispatch 945 AM PDT Mon Sep 1 2025 ...HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS TODAY WITH ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS INTERIOR INCLUDING RISK OF LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRES... ...SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING INCLUDING COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS, WITH MAIN RISKS BEING ISOLATED DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES AND STRONG/ERRATIC DOWNBURST/OUTFLOW WINDS... ...POTENTIAL INCREASE IN MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BRING THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY, MAINLY MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS, WITH INCREASED RISK OF BRIEF HEAVIER RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS...CONTINUED ENHANCED RISK OF LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRES AWAY FROM MONSOON THUNDERSTORMS... Hot and dry conditions will persist today away from the immediate coast today, with high temperatures of 95 to 107 degrees across the valleys, lower mountains, and deserts. Similar hot temperatures may persist into Tuesday, with warmer temperatures potentially occurring near the coast due to weakening onshore flow. The hotter temperatures combined with increased instability will bring deeper mixing heights which are expected to rise to between 12,000 and 17,000 feet each afternoon across the interior through Tuesday. As a result, there is an elevated risk for large plume dominated fires across the interior. Humidities between 10 and 25 percent will be common over the warmest valleys, lower mountains, and deserts today. then potential humidity increase by Tuesday or Wednesday due to the influx of monsoonal moistures. Increasing mid level moisture and instability associated with an upper level disturbance will bring a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms tonight into Tuesday morning for areas south of Point Conception, including coastal and valley areas. Due to the expected limited rainfall during this time, the main risks with any thunderstorm activity tonight into Tuesday morning will likely be isolated dry lightning strikes and strong/erratic downburst/outflow winds gusting to 50 mph. These isolated dry lightning strikes will bring an increased risk of lightning induced fires across the region, especially considering the critically dry fuels. If the dry lightning coverage were to increase, a short fuse Red Flag Warning may need to be considereed. From Tuesday afternoon through Friday, there will be higher chances of monsoonal shower and thunderstorm activity across the mountains and deserts (especially LA/Ventura counties), with a smaller chance for coasts and valleys. With wetter storms expected, the main risks during this time frame will be the potential for brief heavy rainfall and flooding threats in the mountains and deserts, along with a continued threat of gusty winds. The potential for strongest outflow winds up to 50 mph will be Tuesday afternoon into early evening across LA county, especially Antelope Valley, San Gabriel mountains, and San Gabriel Valley. $$