Land Management Forecasts
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA
533 FNUS86 KLOX 012307 FWLLOX ECCDA Discussions National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 407 PM PDT Mon Sep 1 2025 ECC029-021715- Los Padres National Forest- Discussion for Vandenberg ECC Dispatch 407 PM PDT Mon Sep 1 2025 ...Discussion from Monterey... ...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT IN THE INTERIOR MOUNTAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING DUE TO LOW RH AND MODERATE BREEZES... ...COOLING TREND MID TO LATE WEEK... It`s hot and dry inland while nearest the coast and bays within a shallow marine layer, sea breezes are developing. An upper level low 300 miles southwest of San Francisco will continue to move northeastward passing over the district late tonight and Tuesday. The low is surrounded by dry air at the moment, but will approach closer to residual mid level moisture late tonight and Tuesday. The primary concern is there is a very low i.e. non-zero probability of high impact weather if any elevated showers, isolated dry lightning and storm associated gusty outflow winds develop. Otherwise a cooling trend sets in Tuesday and will continue through the remainder of the extended forecast. Daily highs and lows will be closer to normal for early September. Note : All winds are 20-foot Winds Unless otherwise specified. Thunderstorms imply strong, gusty and erratic winds. ...Discussion from Los Angeles/Oxnard... ...HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS TODAY WITH ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS INTERIOR INCLUDING RISK OF LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRES... ...SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION LATE THIS EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING INCLUDING COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS, WITH MAIN RISKS BEING ISOLATED DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES POTENTIALLY CAUSING NEW FIRES AND STRONG/ERRATIC DOWNBURST/OUTFLOW WINDS... ...TRANSITIONING TO THREAT OF WETTER THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY, MAINLY FOCUSED ACROSS THE LA/VENTURA MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY, WITH MAIN RISK BEING FLASH FLOODING--CONTINUED RISK OF LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRES ACROSS DRIER INTERIOR AREAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY... ..FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT 11 AM TUESDAY UNTIL 11 PM WEDNESDAY FOR THE SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS, ANTELOPE VALLEY, AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS INCLUDING BRIDGE FIRE BURN SCAR FOR POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING AND DEBRIS FLOWS... Hot and dry conditions persisted today away from the immediate coast today, with high temperatures of 95 to 106 degrees across the valleys, lower mountains, and deserts. Similar hot temperatures may persist into Tuesday, with warmer temperatures potentially occurring near the coast due to weakening onshore flow. The hotter temperatures combined with increased instability has brought deeper mixing heights which are peaking between 12,000 and 17,000 feet this afternoon. As a result, there is an elevated risk for large plume dominated fires across the interior. Humidities between 10 and 20 percent are common today over the warmest valleys, lower mountains, and deserts today. then potential humidity increase by Tuesday or Wednesday due to the influx of monsoonal moistures. Increasing mid level moisture and instability associated with an upper level disturbance will bring a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms tonight into Tuesday morning, mainly south of Point Conception, including coastal and valley areas. Due to the expected limited rainfall during this time, the main risks with any thunderstorm activity tonight into Tuesday morning will likely be isolated dry lightning strikes and strong/erratic downburst/outflow winds gusting to 50 mph. These isolated dry lightning strikes will bring an increased risk of lightning induced fires across the region, especially considering the critically dry fuels. If the dry lightning coverage were to increase, a short fuse Red Flag Warning may need to be considered. From Tuesday afternoon through Friday, there will be higher chances of monsoonal shower and thunderstorm activity across the mountains and deserts (especially LA/Ventura counties), with a smaller chance for coasts and valleys. With wetter storms expected, the main risks during this time frame will be the potential for brief heavy rainfall and flooding threats in the mountains and deserts, along with a continued threat of strong downburst/outflow winds. The highest threat for flash flooding and debris flows will be in the San Gabriel mountains and Antelope Valley where a flood watch is in effect. The potential for strongest outflow winds, locally damaging up to 60 mph will be Tuesday afternoon and evening across LA county, especially Antelope Valley, San Gabriel mountains, and San Gabriel Valley. $$ ECC028-021715- Santa Barbara County excluding Los Padres National Forest- Discussion for Santa Barbara ECC Dispatch 407 PM PDT Mon Sep 1 2025 ...HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS TODAY WITH ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS INTERIOR INCLUDING RISK OF LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRES... ...SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION LATE THIS EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING INCLUDING COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS, WITH MAIN RISKS BEING ISOLATED DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES POTENTIALLY CAUSING NEW FIRES AND STRONG/ERRATIC DOWNBURST/OUTFLOW WINDS... ...TRANSITIONING TO THREAT OF WETTER THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY, MAINLY FOCUSED ACROSS THE LA/VENTURA MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY, WITH MAIN RISK BEING FLASH FLOODING--CONTINUED RISK OF LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRES ACROSS DRIER INTERIOR AREAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY... ..FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT 11 AM TUESDAY UNTIL 11 PM WEDNESDAY FOR THE SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS, ANTELOPE VALLEY, AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS INCLUDING BRIDGE FIRE BURN SCAR FOR POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING AND DEBRIS FLOWS... Hot and dry conditions persisted today away from the immediate coast today, with high temperatures of 95 to 106 degrees across the valleys, lower mountains, and deserts. Similar hot temperatures may persist into Tuesday, with warmer temperatures potentially occurring near the coast due to weakening onshore flow. The hotter temperatures combined with increased instability has brought deeper mixing heights which are peaking between 12,000 and 17,000 feet this afternoon. As a result, there is an elevated risk for large plume dominated fires across the interior. Humidities between 10 and 20 percent are common today over the warmest valleys, lower mountains, and deserts today. then potential humidity increase by Tuesday or Wednesday due to the influx of monsoonal moistures. Increasing mid level moisture and instability associated with an upper level disturbance will bring a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms tonight into Tuesday morning, mainly south of Point Conception, including coastal and valley areas. Due to the expected limited rainfall during this time, the main risks with any thunderstorm activity tonight into Tuesday morning will likely be isolated dry lightning strikes and strong/erratic downburst/outflow winds gusting to 50 mph. These isolated dry lightning strikes will bring an increased risk of lightning induced fires across the region, especially considering the critically dry fuels. If the dry lightning coverage were to increase, a short fuse Red Flag Warning may need to be considered. From Tuesday afternoon through Friday, there will be higher chances of monsoonal shower and thunderstorm activity across the mountains and deserts (especially LA/Ventura counties), with a smaller chance for coasts and valleys. With wetter storms expected, the main risks during this time frame will be the potential for brief heavy rainfall and flooding threats in the mountains and deserts, along with a continued threat of strong downburst/outflow winds. The highest threat for flash flooding and debris flows will be in the San Gabriel mountains and Antelope Valley where a flood watch is in effect. The potential for strongest outflow winds, locally damaging up to 60 mph will be Tuesday afternoon and evening across LA county, especially Antelope Valley, San Gabriel mountains, and San Gabriel Valley. $$ ECC031-021715- Angeles National Forest- Discussion for Lancaster ECC Dispatch 407 PM PDT Mon Sep 1 2025 ...HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS TODAY WITH ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS INTERIOR INCLUDING RISK OF LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRES... ...SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION LATE THIS EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING INCLUDING COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS, WITH MAIN RISKS BEING ISOLATED DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES POTENTIALLY CAUSING NEW FIRES AND STRONG/ERRATIC DOWNBURST/OUTFLOW WINDS... ...TRANSITIONING TO THREAT OF WETTER THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY, MAINLY FOCUSED ACROSS THE LA/VENTURA MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY, WITH MAIN RISK BEING FLASH FLOODING--CONTINUED RISK OF LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRES ACROSS DRIER INTERIOR AREAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY... ..FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT 11 AM TUESDAY UNTIL 11 PM WEDNESDAY FOR THE SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS, ANTELOPE VALLEY, AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS INCLUDING BRIDGE FIRE BURN SCAR FOR POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING AND DEBRIS FLOWS... Hot and dry conditions persisted today away from the immediate coast today, with high temperatures of 95 to 106 degrees across the valleys, lower mountains, and deserts. Similar hot temperatures may persist into Tuesday, with warmer temperatures potentially occurring near the coast due to weakening onshore flow. The hotter temperatures combined with increased instability has brought deeper mixing heights which are peaking between 12,000 and 17,000 feet this afternoon. As a result, there is an elevated risk for large plume dominated fires across the interior. Humidities between 10 and 20 percent are common today over the warmest valleys, lower mountains, and deserts today. then potential humidity increase by Tuesday or Wednesday due to the influx of monsoonal moistures. Increasing mid level moisture and instability associated with an upper level disturbance will bring a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms tonight into Tuesday morning, mainly south of Point Conception, including coastal and valley areas. Due to the expected limited rainfall during this time, the main risks with any thunderstorm activity tonight into Tuesday morning will likely be isolated dry lightning strikes and strong/erratic downburst/outflow winds gusting to 50 mph. These isolated dry lightning strikes will bring an increased risk of lightning induced fires across the region, especially considering the critically dry fuels. If the dry lightning coverage were to increase, a short fuse Red Flag Warning may need to be considered. From Tuesday afternoon through Friday, there will be higher chances of monsoonal shower and thunderstorm activity across the mountains and deserts (especially LA/Ventura counties), with a smaller chance for coasts and valleys. With wetter storms expected, the main risks during this time frame will be the potential for brief heavy rainfall and flooding threats in the mountains and deserts, along with a continued threat of strong downburst/outflow winds. The highest threat for flash flooding and debris flows will be in the San Gabriel mountains and Antelope Valley where a flood watch is in effect. The potential for strongest outflow winds, locally damaging up to 60 mph will be Tuesday afternoon and evening across LA county, especially Antelope Valley, San Gabriel mountains, and San Gabriel Valley. $$ ECC024-021715- San Luis Obispo County- Discussion for San Luis Obispo ECC Dispatch 407 PM PDT Mon Sep 1 2025 ...HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS TODAY WITH ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS INTERIOR INCLUDING RISK OF LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRES... ...SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION LATE THIS EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING INCLUDING COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS, WITH MAIN RISKS BEING ISOLATED DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES POTENTIALLY CAUSING NEW FIRES AND STRONG/ERRATIC DOWNBURST/OUTFLOW WINDS... ...TRANSITIONING TO THREAT OF WETTER THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY, MAINLY FOCUSED ACROSS THE LA/VENTURA MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY, WITH MAIN RISK BEING FLASH FLOODING--CONTINUED RISK OF LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRES ACROSS DRIER INTERIOR AREAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY... ..FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT 11 AM TUESDAY UNTIL 11 PM WEDNESDAY FOR THE SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS, ANTELOPE VALLEY, AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS INCLUDING BRIDGE FIRE BURN SCAR FOR POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING AND DEBRIS FLOWS... Hot and dry conditions persisted today away from the immediate coast today, with high temperatures of 95 to 106 degrees across the valleys, lower mountains, and deserts. Similar hot temperatures may persist into Tuesday, with warmer temperatures potentially occurring near the coast due to weakening onshore flow. The hotter temperatures combined with increased instability has brought deeper mixing heights which are peaking between 12,000 and 17,000 feet this afternoon. As a result, there is an elevated risk for large plume dominated fires across the interior. Humidities between 10 and 20 percent are common today over the warmest valleys, lower mountains, and deserts today. then potential humidity increase by Tuesday or Wednesday due to the influx of monsoonal moistures. Increasing mid level moisture and instability associated with an upper level disturbance will bring a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms tonight into Tuesday morning, mainly south of Point Conception, including coastal and valley areas. Due to the expected limited rainfall during this time, the main risks with any thunderstorm activity tonight into Tuesday morning will likely be isolated dry lightning strikes and strong/erratic downburst/outflow winds gusting to 50 mph. These isolated dry lightning strikes will bring an increased risk of lightning induced fires across the region, especially considering the critically dry fuels. If the dry lightning coverage were to increase, a short fuse Red Flag Warning may need to be considered. From Tuesday afternoon through Friday, there will be higher chances of monsoonal shower and thunderstorm activity across the mountains and deserts (especially LA/Ventura counties), with a smaller chance for coasts and valleys. With wetter storms expected, the main risks during this time frame will be the potential for brief heavy rainfall and flooding threats in the mountains and deserts, along with a continued threat of strong downburst/outflow winds. The highest threat for flash flooding and debris flows will be in the San Gabriel mountains and Antelope Valley where a flood watch is in effect. The potential for strongest outflow winds, locally damaging up to 60 mph will be Tuesday afternoon and evening across LA county, especially Antelope Valley, San Gabriel mountains, and San Gabriel Valley. $$ ECC032-021715- Ventura County excluding Los Padres National Forest- Discussion for Ventura ECC Dispatch 407 PM PDT Mon Sep 1 2025 ...HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS TODAY WITH ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS INTERIOR INCLUDING RISK OF LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRES... ...SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION LATE THIS EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING INCLUDING COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS, WITH MAIN RISKS BEING ISOLATED DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES POTENTIALLY CAUSING NEW FIRES AND STRONG/ERRATIC DOWNBURST/OUTFLOW WINDS... ...TRANSITIONING TO THREAT OF WETTER THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY, MAINLY FOCUSED ACROSS THE LA/VENTURA MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY, WITH MAIN RISK BEING FLASH FLOODING--CONTINUED RISK OF LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRES ACROSS DRIER INTERIOR AREAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY... ..FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT 11 AM TUESDAY UNTIL 11 PM WEDNESDAY FOR THE SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS, ANTELOPE VALLEY, AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS INCLUDING BRIDGE FIRE BURN SCAR FOR POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING AND DEBRIS FLOWS... Hot and dry conditions persisted today away from the immediate coast today, with high temperatures of 95 to 106 degrees across the valleys, lower mountains, and deserts. Similar hot temperatures may persist into Tuesday, with warmer temperatures potentially occurring near the coast due to weakening onshore flow. The hotter temperatures combined with increased instability has brought deeper mixing heights which are peaking between 12,000 and 17,000 feet this afternoon. As a result, there is an elevated risk for large plume dominated fires across the interior. Humidities between 10 and 20 percent are common today over the warmest valleys, lower mountains, and deserts today. then potential humidity increase by Tuesday or Wednesday due to the influx of monsoonal moistures. Increasing mid level moisture and instability associated with an upper level disturbance will bring a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms tonight into Tuesday morning, mainly south of Point Conception, including coastal and valley areas. Due to the expected limited rainfall during this time, the main risks with any thunderstorm activity tonight into Tuesday morning will likely be isolated dry lightning strikes and strong/erratic downburst/outflow winds gusting to 50 mph. These isolated dry lightning strikes will bring an increased risk of lightning induced fires across the region, especially considering the critically dry fuels. If the dry lightning coverage were to increase, a short fuse Red Flag Warning may need to be considered. From Tuesday afternoon through Friday, there will be higher chances of monsoonal shower and thunderstorm activity across the mountains and deserts (especially LA/Ventura counties), with a smaller chance for coasts and valleys. With wetter storms expected, the main risks during this time frame will be the potential for brief heavy rainfall and flooding threats in the mountains and deserts, along with a continued threat of strong downburst/outflow winds. The highest threat for flash flooding and debris flows will be in the San Gabriel mountains and Antelope Valley where a flood watch is in effect. The potential for strongest outflow winds, locally damaging up to 60 mph will be Tuesday afternoon and evening across LA county, especially Antelope Valley, San Gabriel mountains, and San Gabriel Valley. $$ ECC030-021715- Los Angeles County excluding Angeles National Forest- Discussion for Los Angeles ECC Dispatch 407 PM PDT Mon Sep 1 2025 ...HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS TODAY WITH ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS INTERIOR INCLUDING RISK OF LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRES... ...SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION LATE THIS EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING INCLUDING COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS, WITH MAIN RISKS BEING ISOLATED DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES POTENTIALLY CAUSING NEW FIRES AND STRONG/ERRATIC DOWNBURST/OUTFLOW WINDS... ...TRANSITIONING TO THREAT OF WETTER THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY, MAINLY FOCUSED ACROSS THE LA/VENTURA MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY, WITH MAIN RISK BEING FLASH FLOODING--CONTINUED RISK OF LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRES ACROSS DRIER INTERIOR AREAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY... ..FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT 11 AM TUESDAY UNTIL 11 PM WEDNESDAY FOR THE SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS, ANTELOPE VALLEY, AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS INCLUDING BRIDGE FIRE BURN SCAR FOR POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING AND DEBRIS FLOWS... Hot and dry conditions persisted today away from the immediate coast today, with high temperatures of 95 to 106 degrees across the valleys, lower mountains, and deserts. Similar hot temperatures may persist into Tuesday, with warmer temperatures potentially occurring near the coast due to weakening onshore flow. The hotter temperatures combined with increased instability has brought deeper mixing heights which are peaking between 12,000 and 17,000 feet this afternoon. As a result, there is an elevated risk for large plume dominated fires across the interior. Humidities between 10 and 20 percent are common today over the warmest valleys, lower mountains, and deserts today. then potential humidity increase by Tuesday or Wednesday due to the influx of monsoonal moistures. Increasing mid level moisture and instability associated with an upper level disturbance will bring a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms tonight into Tuesday morning, mainly south of Point Conception, including coastal and valley areas. Due to the expected limited rainfall during this time, the main risks with any thunderstorm activity tonight into Tuesday morning will likely be isolated dry lightning strikes and strong/erratic downburst/outflow winds gusting to 50 mph. These isolated dry lightning strikes will bring an increased risk of lightning induced fires across the region, especially considering the critically dry fuels. If the dry lightning coverage were to increase, a short fuse Red Flag Warning may need to be considered. From Tuesday afternoon through Friday, there will be higher chances of monsoonal shower and thunderstorm activity across the mountains and deserts (especially LA/Ventura counties), with a smaller chance for coasts and valleys. With wetter storms expected, the main risks during this time frame will be the potential for brief heavy rainfall and flooding threats in the mountains and deserts, along with a continued threat of strong downburst/outflow winds. The highest threat for flash flooding and debris flows will be in the San Gabriel mountains and Antelope Valley where a flood watch is in effect. The potential for strongest outflow winds, locally damaging up to 60 mph will be Tuesday afternoon and evening across LA county, especially Antelope Valley, San Gabriel mountains, and San Gabriel Valley. $$