332
FNUS76 KLOX 140105
FWSLOX

Spot Forecast for LPF Fire School W2-3...Los Padres NF
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
605 PM PDT Thu Jun 13 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 PDT on June 14.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
Mostly clear skies are expected, along with a pattern change that
will bring increasing temperatures, dry air and breezy winds.
Minimum relative humidities are expected to fall to the low teens
to upper single digits, with moderate to good overnight recoveries.
Lower confidence in wind speeds Friday night, which may be 5 to 10
mph stronger than forecast at times. The burn area could see
sporadic northerly gusts throughout the night.

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny.
Temperature.........60 at ignition...Max 99-100.
RH..................60-65 percent at ignition...Min 9-12 percent.
Eye level winds.....Winds northwest at 1 to 3 mph at
                    ignition, becoming northwest winds 4 to 7
                    mph.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds northwest at 3 to 6 mph at
                    ignition, becoming northwest winds 8 to 15
                    mph.
Ridgetop wind.......Winds northwest at 3 to 6 mph at
                    ignition, becoming northwest winds 10 to 18
                    mph.
Mixing height.......1000 ft AGL at ignition, becoming 9200 ft
                    AGL in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....Northwest 5 mph becoming northwest 10
                    to 15 mph late in the afternoon.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear.
Temperature.........Min 53-54.
RH..................12-15 percent early, Max 50-60 percent.
Eye level winds.....Northwest winds 4 to 7 mph with gusts to 11 mph,
                    becoming northwest 2 to 5 mph with gusts to
                    7 mph overnight. Decreasing to 1 to 4 mph
                    after 3 am.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 8 to 15 mph with gusts to 22 mph,
                    becoming northwest 5 to 10 mph with gusts to
                    15 mph overnight. Decreasing to 3 to 8 mph
                    after 3 am.
Ridgetop wind.......Northwest winds 10 to 18 mph with gusts to 25 mph,
                    becoming northwest 6 to 12 mph with gusts to
                    18 mph overnight. Decreasing to 4 to 9 mph
                    after 3 am.
Mixing height.......6000 ft AGL in the evening, becoming 700 ft AGL
                    overnight.
Transport winds.....Northwest 10 to 20 mph decreasing to 5 mph
                    after 3 am.

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny.
Temperature.........Max 95-96.
RH..................Min 10-13 percent.
Eye level winds.....Northwest winds 3 to 6 mph increasing to 5 to
                    7 mph late in the afternoon.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 6 to 12 mph increasing to 10 to
                    15 mph late in the afternoon.
Ridgetop wind.......Northwest winds 8 to 12 mph increasing to 12 to
                    18 mph late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......800 ft AGL early, becoming 8600 ft AGL in
                    afternoon.
Transport winds.....Northwest 5 to 10 mph becoming 15 mph in the
                    afternoon.

$$
Forecaster...PHILLIPS
Requested by...Seth Mitchell
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2416045.1/LOX
.DELDT 06/13/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL seth.mitchell@usda.gov