Quantitative Precipitation Statement
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA
715
FSUS46 KLOX 171140
QPSLOX
Quantitative Precipitation Forecast National Weather Service Los
Angeles/Oxnard CA 333 AM PST Mon Nov 17 2025
Precipitation forecasts in inches are provided in 3-hour increments
until 1600 followed by 6-hour increments until 0400.
Thunderstorm chances cover up to 0400 on day 1 only.
Light rainfall amounts greater than zero but less than a tenth of an
inch are shown as lgt.
The discussion covers the period from: Mon Nov 17 2025 through Sun
Nov 23 2025.
&&
04-07 07-10 10-13 13-16 | 16-
22 22-04
San Luis Obispo County...
LSRC1:Cambria 0.4 0.1 lgt lgt |
lgt 0.0 SMRC1:Santa Margarita 0.4 0.1 lgt
lgt | lgt 0.0 NIPC1:Lopez Lake 0.4 0.2
lgt lgt | lgt 0.0
1-Hr Rates: Coasts/Valleys Foothills/Mountains
Expected Peak (in/hr): 0.15-0.35 0.05-0.35 Probability
0.50+ in/hr: 25% 35% Probability 1.00+ in/hr: <5% <5%
Peak rates expected to occur between: 0500-0900
Chance of Thunderstorms: 20% Isolated rates around 0.75 in/hr
possible near thunderstorms.
&& 04-07 07-10 10-13 13-16 |
16-22 22-04
Santa Barbara County...
SIYC1:Santa Maria 0.4 0.2 lgt lgt |
lgt 0.0 SBTC1:Santa Barbara Potrero lgt 0.2 0.4
0.1 | lgt lgt GBRC1:Gibraltar Dam 0.2 0.4
0.5 0.2 | lgt 0.0 SMCC1:San Marcos Pass 0.2 0.6 0.6
0.2 | lgt 0.0 SBFC1:Santa Barbara City 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.2 |
lgt 0.0
1-Hr Rates: Coasts/Valleys Foothills/Mountains
Expected Peak (in/hr): 0.20-0.40 0.30-0.50 Probability
0.50+ in/hr: 55% 55% Probability 1.00+ in/hr: <5% 10%
Peak rates expected to occur between: 0600-1200
Chance of Thunderstorms: 20% Isolated rates around 1.0 in/hr
possible near thunderstorms.
&& 04-07 07-10 10-13 13-16 |
16-22 22-04
Ventura County...
FGWC1:Fagan Canyon lgt 0.1 0.4 0.2 |
lgt 0.0 HRCC1:Hopper Canyon lgt lgt 0.6
0.3 | lgt 0.0 MTDC1:Matilija Dam lgt 0.3
0.6 0.2 | lgt 0.0 VTUC1:Ventura City lgt 0.1 0.4
0.1 | lgt 0.0 MORC1:Moorpark lgt lgt 0.3 0.1
| lgt 0.0 CRXC1:Circle X Ranch lgt lgt 0.4 0.2 | lgt
0.0
1-Hr Rates: Coasts/Valleys Foothills/Mountains
Expected Peak (in/hr): 0.10-0.30 0.25-0.45 Probability
0.50+ in/hr: 15% 40% Probability 1.00+ in/hr: <5% 10%
Peak rates expected to occur between: 1100-1400
Chance of Thunderstorms: 20% Isolated rates around 1.0 in/hr
possible near thunderstorms.
&& 04-07 07-10 10-13 13-16 |
16-22 22-04
Los Angeles County...
WFKC1:West Fork Heliport 0.0 lgt 0.1 0.3 |
0.7 lgt BDDC1:Big Dalton Dam lgt lgt lgt
0.2 | 0.6 lgt PCDC1:Pacoima Dam lgt lgt
0.1 0.4 | 0.3 lgt FLTC1:La Canada Flintridge 0.0 lgt
lgt 0.3 | 0.4 lgt SAUC1:Saugus lgt lgt 0.1
0.4 | 0.2 lgt CQT:Downtown LA 0.0 lgt lgt 0.2 |
0.3 lgt MLUC1:Malibu Big Rock Mesa lgt lgt 0.3 0.2
| 0.1 lgt
1-Hr Rates: Coasts/Valleys Foothills/Mountains
Expected Peak (in/hr): 0.15-0.25 0.20-0.40 Probability
0.50+ in/hr: <5% 35% Probability 1.00+ in/hr: <5% <5%
Peak rates expected to occur between: 1300-1900
Chance of Thunderstorms: 20% Isolated rates around 0.75 in/hr
possible near thunderstorms.
&&
DISCUSSION: Unsettled weather continues this week with two storms
likely, although the first one today into Tuesday will likely be
most impactful.
Storm #1 details:
Moderate to embedded pockets of heavy rain will
march south along and ahead of a cold front through this evening.
Along and behind the front there is a 10-20 percent chance of
thunderstorms through Tuesday early evening. Peak rain rates of 0.25-
0.50 inches per hour will be common, with isolated rates of 0.80+
inches per hour likely near thunderstorms and S-SW facing
foothills/coastal slopes(especially in the Santa Ynez mountains and
western Ventura mountains). Minor roadway/small stream flooding,
additional rockslides/mudslides, and shallow debris flows near
recent burn scars will be common due to this storm being on the
heels of the historic rainfall we received just a few days ago.
There is a 20-30 percent chance of reaching debris flow thresholds
(15, 30, 60 minute durations) in the recent burn scars.
A secondary peak of thunderstorm chances is Tuesday afternoon
focused across interior mountains into most of LA County given its
more conducive location with better moisture and instability on the
east side of the departing cold upper low. Any thunderstorms that do
form could be slow moving or even stationary, leading to the
potential for very isolated flooding concerns as well as debris
flows near recent burn scars, especially concerning the unusually
wet conditions with peak rates potentially 0.25-0.5 inch per hour
with very isolated 0.80+ inch per hour.
Snow levels are expected to be above 7000 feet during the onset of
this next storm, but are expected to lower to between 5000 and 6000
feet by tonight, and around 4500 feet on Tuesday. Snow accumulations
of 1-3 inches will be possible for elevations above 6000 feet, with
higher amounts above resort levels (above 8000 feet) likely. On
Tuesday, there is a small chance of snow showers reaching down to
the Grapevine along I-5, but any accumulations would likely be
minimal.
Storm #2 details:
Below normal confidence in a Thursday/Friday
system as even slight changes in its track and speed will make a
large difference on how much if any rainfall we see. Although its
very likely this one will be less impactful overall than the early
week storm. However, there is a 10-20 percent chance of similar
impacts for Los Angeles and Ventura County given the early week
storm will probably be a bit weaker for these areas and the
Thursday/Friday system may target these counties. This will be
another cold system with snow levels potentially around 5000-6000
feet for a majority of the storm with several inches of snow
possible above this level should the storm come in on the wet side.
$$