108
FSUS46 KLOX 201158
QPSLOX

Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
352 AM PST Thu Nov 20 2025

Precipitation forecasts in inches are provided in 3-hour
increments until 1600 followed by 6-hour increments until 0400.
Thunderstorm chances cover up to 0400 on day 1 only.

Light rainfall amounts greater than zero but less than a tenth of an
inch are shown as lgt.

The discussion covers the period from: Thu Nov 20 2025 through Wed Nov 26 2025.

&&

                                    04-07  07-10  10-13  13-16  |  16-22  22-04

San Luis Obispo County...

LSRC1:Cambria                          lgt    0.2    lgt    lgt   |   lgt   0.0
SMRC1:Santa Margarita                  lgt    0.2    lgt    lgt   |   lgt   0.0
NIPC1:Lopez Lake                       lgt    lgt    0.2    lgt   |   lgt   lgt

1-Hr Rates:              Coasts/Valleys   Foothills/Mountains
Expected Peak (in/hr):   0.10-0.25        0.10-0.25
Probability 0.50+ in/hr: 10%              10%
Probability 1.00+ in/hr: <5%              <5%

Peak rates expected to occur between: 0800-1400

Chance of Thunderstorms: 20%
Isolated rates around 0.5 in/hr possible near thunderstorms.

&&                                    04-07  07-10  10-13  13-16  |  16-22  22-04

Santa Barbara County...

SIYC1:Santa Maria                      lgt    lgt    0.1    lgt   |   lgt   lgt
SBTC1:Santa Barbara Potrero            0.0    lgt    0.1    lgt   |   lgt   lgt
GBRC1:Gibraltar Dam                    lgt    lgt    0.2    0.1   |   lgt   lgt
SMCC1:San Marcos Pass                  lgt    lgt    0.2    0.2   |   lgt   lgt
SBFC1:Santa Barbara City               0.0    lgt    0.2    0.2   |   lgt   lgt

1-Hr Rates:              Coasts/Valleys   Foothills/Mountains
Expected Peak (in/hr):   0.10-0.25        0.10-0.25
Probability 0.50+ in/hr: 10%              10%
Probability 1.00+ in/hr: <5%              <5%

Peak rates expected to occur between: 1000-1600

Chance of Thunderstorms: 20%
Isolated rates around 0.5 in/hr possible near thunderstorms.

&&                                    04-07  07-10  10-13  13-16  |  16-22  22-04

Ventura County...

FGWC1:Fagan Canyon                     0.0    lgt    lgt    0.2   |   0.1   lgt
HRCC1:Hopper Canyon                    0.0    lgt    lgt    0.2   |   0.3   lgt
MTDC1:Matilija Dam                     0.0    lgt    lgt    0.3   |   0.1   lgt
VTUC1:Ventura City                     0.0    lgt    lgt    0.2   |   0.1   lgt
MORC1:Moorpark                         0.0    lgt    lgt    0.2   |   0.2   0.1
CRXC1:Circle X Ranch                   0.0    lgt    lgt    0.2   |   0.3   lgt

1-Hr Rates:              Coasts/Valleys   Foothills/Mountains
Expected Peak (in/hr):   0.20-0.40        0.20-0.40
Probability 0.50+ in/hr: 20%              20%
Probability 1.00+ in/hr: <5%              <5%

Peak rates expected to occur between: 1200-1800

Chance of Thunderstorms: 20%
Isolated rates around 0.75 in/hr possible near thunderstorms.

&&                                    04-07  07-10  10-13  13-16  |  16-22  22-04

Los Angeles County...

WFKC1:West Fork Heliport               0.0    0.0    0.1    0.3   |   0.5   0.4
BDDC1:Big Dalton Dam                   0.0    0.0    lgt    0.2   |   0.5   0.3
PCDC1:Pacoima Dam                      0.0    0.0    lgt    0.2   |   0.5   0.3
FLTC1:La Canada Flintridge             0.0    0.0    lgt    0.3   |   0.4   0.3
SAUC1:Saugus                           0.0    0.0    lgt    0.2   |   0.3   0.2
CQT:Downtown LA                        0.0    0.0    lgt    0.2   |   0.4   0.1
MLUC1:Malibu Big Rock Mesa             0.0    lgt    lgt    0.2   |   0.4   0.1

1-Hr Rates:              Coasts/Valleys   Foothills/Mountains
Expected Peak (in/hr):   0.20-0.40        0.20-0.40
Probability 0.50+ in/hr: 20%              30%
Probability 1.00+ in/hr: <5%              <5%

Peak rates expected to occur between: 1400-2000

Chance of Thunderstorms: 20%
Isolated rates around 0.75 in/hr possible near thunderstorms.

&&

DISCUSSION:

Fairly confident that San Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara Counties
will have lighter totals (0.25 to 0.75 inches common, except 0.5 to
1.0 inches in some favored mountains) and rates (0.10 to 0.25 inches
per hour). For Los Angeles and Ventura Counties, the most likely
outcome is for moderate amounts (0.75 to 1.25 inches except 1 to 2
inches in favored mountains and hills) and rates (0.20 to 0.40
inches per hour). The convective and dynamic nature of the proximity
of the low brings the potential of localized higher totals and
rates, especially in Los Angeles County. Snow levels will be above
6,000 feet for most of the precipitation, but will drop to as low at
5,000 feet on Friday. There is a slight chance of thunderstorms
Thursday Night through Friday. Snow amounts of 3 to 6 inches is the
most likely outcome for elevations above 6000.

Dry weather will likely follow this weekend through at least most of
next week.

$$