013
FSUS46 KLOX 181311
QPSLOX

Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
450 AM PST Tue Nov 18 2025

Precipitation forecasts in inches are provided in 3-hour
increments until 1600 followed by 6-hour increments until 0400.
Thunderstorm chances cover up to 0400 on day 1 only.

Light rainfall amounts greater than zero but less than a tenth of an
inch are shown as lgt.

The discussion covers the period from: Tue Nov 18 2025 through Mon Nov 24 2025.

&&

                                    04-07  07-10  10-13  13-16  |  16-22  22-04

San Luis Obispo County...

LSRC1:Cambria                          lgt    lgt    0.0    0.0   |   0.0   0.0
SMRC1:Santa Margarita                  lgt    lgt    0.0    0.0   |   0.0   0.0
NIPC1:Lopez Lake                       lgt    0.0    lgt    0.0   |   0.0   0.0

1-Hr Rates:              Coasts/Valleys   Foothills/Mountains
Expected Peak (in/hr):   0.01-0.10        0.05-0.20
Probability 0.50+ in/hr: 10%              10%
Probability 1.00+ in/hr: <5%              <5%

Peak rates expected to occur between: 0400-1000

Chance of Thunderstorms: 20%
Isolated rates around 0.50 in/hr possible near thunderstorms.

&&                                    04-07  07-10  10-13  13-16  |  16-22  22-04

Santa Barbara County...

SIYC1:Santa Maria                      lgt    0.0    lgt    0.0   |   0.0   0.0
SBTC1:Santa Barbara Potrero            0.0    0.0    lgt    lgt   |   0.0   0.0
GBRC1:Gibraltar Dam                    0.0    0.0    lgt    lgt   |   0.0   0.0
SMCC1:San Marcos Pass                  0.0    0.0    lgt    0.0   |   0.0   0.0
SBFC1:Santa Barbara City               0.0    0.0    lgt    0.0   |   0.0   0.0

1-Hr Rates:              Coasts/Valleys   Foothills/Mountains
Expected Peak (in/hr):   0.01-0.10        0.05-0.20
Probability 0.50+ in/hr: 10%              10%
Probability 1.00+ in/hr: <5%              <5%

Peak rates expected to occur between: 0800-1600

Chance of Thunderstorms: 20%
Isolated rates around 0.50 in/hr possible near thunderstorms.

&&                                    04-07  07-10  10-13  13-16  |  16-22  22-04

Ventura County...

FGWC1:Fagan Canyon                     0.0    lgt    0.1    0.0   |   0.0   0.0
HRCC1:Hopper Canyon                    0.0    lgt    0.1    lgt   |   0.0   0.0
MTDC1:Matilija Dam                     0.0    lgt    0.1    0.0   |   0.0   0.0
VTUC1:Ventura City                     0.0    0.0    lgt    0.0   |   0.0   0.0
MORC1:Moorpark                         0.0    0.0    lgt    0.0   |   0.0   0.0
CRXC1:Circle X Ranch                   0.0    0.0    lgt    0.0   |   0.0   0.0

1-Hr Rates:              Coasts/Valleys   Foothills/Mountains
Expected Peak (in/hr):   0.01-0.10        0.05-0.20
Probability 0.50+ in/hr: 10%              10%
Probability 1.00+ in/hr: <5%              <5%

Peak rates expected to occur between: 1000-1800

Chance of Thunderstorms: 20%
Isolated rates around 0.50 in/hr possible near thunderstorms.

&&                                    04-07  07-10  10-13  13-16  |  16-22  22-04

Los Angeles County...

WFKC1:West Fork Heliport               lgt    0.0    lgt    0.0   |   lgt   0.0
BDDC1:Big Dalton Dam                   lgt    0.0    lgt    lgt   |   lgt   0.0
PCDC1:Pacoima Dam                      0.0    0.0    lgt    0.0   |   0.0   0.0
FLTC1:La Canada Flintridge             lgt    0.0    lgt    0.0   |   0.0   0.0
SAUC1:Saugus                           0.0    0.0    lgt    0.0   |   0.0   0.0
CQT:Downtown LA                        lgt    lgt    lgt    0.0   |   0.0   0.0
MLUC1:Malibu Big Rock Mesa             lgt    lgt    lgt    0.0   |   0.0   0.0

1-Hr Rates:              Coasts/Valleys   Foothills/Mountains
Expected Peak (in/hr):   0.01-0.10        0.05-0.20
Probability 0.50+ in/hr: 10%              10%
Probability 1.00+ in/hr: <5%              <5%

Peak rates expected to occur between: 1000-1800

Chance of Thunderstorms: 20%
Isolated rates around 0.50 in/hr possible near thunderstorms.

&&

DISCUSSION:

Scattered light to moderate showers will be around today, with
possible but isolated thunderstorms or heavy showers. While most
rain rates will be under 0.25 inch, there will likely be a few
showers that produce rates of 0.25 to 0.50 inches. Difficult to say
where those might occur. With the abundant recent rain, these rates
could result in moderate road flooding, and signficant rockslides or
mudslides. Showers decrease in coverage and intensity tonight
through Wednesday. Another storm system will bring widespread rain
on Thursday or Thursday Night, with showers into Friday. Common rain
totals of 0.5 to 1.0 inches look most common, with 1 to 2 inches in
the favored foothills or mountains. There are however 20-30% of the
projections that show double that. If those solutions verify,
because of the abundant recent rains, moderate flooding, rockslide,
and mudslide impacts would be on the table. Dry weather looks to
follow next week.

$$