625
FSUS46 KLOX 162307
QPSLOX

Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
251 PM PST Sun Nov 16 2025

Precipitation forecasts in inches are provided in 3-hour
increments until 0400 followed by 6-hour increments until 1600.
Thunderstorm chances cover up to 1600 on day 1 only.

Light rainfall amounts greater than zero but less than a tenth of an
inch are shown as lgt.

The discussion covers the period from: Sun Nov 16 2025 through Sat Nov 22 2025.

&&

                                    16-19  19-22  22-01  01-04  |  04-10  10-16

San Luis Obispo County...

LSRC1:Cambria                          0.0    lgt    0.3    0.2   |   0.0   lgt
SMRC1:Santa Margarita                  0.0    lgt    0.3    0.2   |   0.0   lgt
NIPC1:Lopez Lake                       0.0    0.0    lgt    lgt   |   0.6   0.1

1-Hr Rates:              Coasts/Valleys   Foothills/Mountains
Expected Peak (in/hr):   0.25-0.50        0.50-0.70
Probability 0.50+ in/hr: 30%              60%
Probability 1.00+ in/hr: <5%              <5%

Peak rates expected to occur between: 0500-1600

Chance of Thunderstorms: 20%
Isolated rates around 0.70 in/hr possible near thunderstorms.

&&                                    16-19  19-22  22-01  01-04  |  04-10  10-16

Santa Barbara County...

SIYC1:Santa Maria                      0.0    0.0    0.0    lgt   |   0.7   lgt
SBTC1:Santa Barbara Potrero            0.0    0.0    0.0    lgt   |   0.4   0.0
GBRC1:Gibraltar Dam                    0.0    0.0    lgt    lgt   |   0.7   0.0
SMCC1:San Marcos Pass                  0.0    0.0    lgt    lgt   |   0.8   0.0
SBFC1:Santa Barbara City               0.0    0.0    lgt    lgt   |   0.6   0.0

1-Hr Rates:              Coasts/Valleys   Foothills/Mountains
Expected Peak (in/hr):   0.25-0.50        0.50-0.80
Probability 0.50+ in/hr: 50%              80%
Probability 1.00+ in/hr: <5%              5-10%

Peak rates expected to occur between: 0700-1600

Chance of Thunderstorms: 20%
Isolated rates around 0.80 in/hr possible near thunderstorms.

&&                                    16-19  19-22  22-01  01-04  |  04-10  10-16

Ventura County...

FGWC1:Fagan Canyon                     lgt    0.0    lgt    lgt   |   0.3   0.6
HRCC1:Hopper Canyon                    0.0    0.0    0.0    lgt   |   0.2   0.6
MTDC1:Matilija Dam                     0.0    0.0    lgt    lgt   |   0.5   0.0
VTUC1:Ventura City                     lgt    0.0    lgt    lgt   |   0.3   0.0
MORC1:Moorpark                         lgt    0.0    0.0    lgt   |   0.1   0.5
CRXC1:Circle X Ranch                   lgt    0.0    0.0    lgt   |   0.2   0.7

1-Hr Rates:              Coasts/Valleys   Foothills/Mountains
Expected Peak (in/hr):   0.25-0.50        0.50-0.80
Probability 0.50+ in/hr: 30%              70%
Probability 1.00+ in/hr: <5%              <5%

Peak rates expected to occur between: 1200-1600

Chance of Thunderstorms: 20%
Isolated rates around 0.80 in/hr possible near thunderstorms.

&&                                    16-19  19-22  22-01  01-04  |  04-10  10-16

Los Angeles County...

WFKC1:West Fork Heliport               lgt    lgt    lgt    lgt   |   lgt   0.8
BDDC1:Big Dalton Dam                   lgt    lgt    lgt    lgt   |   lgt   0.5
PCDC1:Pacoima Dam                      lgt    lgt    lgt    0.0   |   lgt   0.7
FLTC1:La Canada Flintridge             lgt    lgt    lgt    lgt   |   lgt   0.7
SAUC1:Saugus                           lgt    0.0    0.0    lgt   |   lgt   0.5
CQT:Downtown LA                        lgt    lgt    lgt    lgt   |   lgt   0.4
MLUC1:Malibu Big Rock Mesa             0.0    0.0    0.0    lgt   |   0.1   0.5

1-Hr Rates:              Coasts/Valleys   Foothills/Mountains
Expected Peak (in/hr):   0.25-0.50        0.50-0.70
Probability 0.50+ in/hr: 30%              60%
Probability 1.00+ in/hr: <5%              <5%

Peak rates expected to occur between: 1400-1600

Chance of Thunderstorms: 20%
Isolated rates around 0.70 in/hr possible near thunderstorms.

&&

DISCUSSION:
The next projected storm is still on track to impact the
region late tonight through Tuesday. A progressive cold front is
expected to bring steady moderate rain to the region starting late
tonight in San Luis Obispo County pushing through the remainder of
the forecast area on Monday. Within the cold front, there will
likely be embedded areas of brief heavier rainfall, especially
across south and southwest facing foothills and coastal slopes, with
the highest risk for the Santa Ynez mountains and western Ventura
mountains. There is a 20 percent chance of thunderstorms within the
cold front. Behind the cold front, scattered showers and a
10-20 percent chance of thunderstorms will persist, starting
Monday afternoon across the Central Coast and by late Monday evening
across LA county. A smaller threat of scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms will continue into Tuesday, however rain
intensities are expected to be less as the system takes a more
inland track.

The most likely outcome for storm total rainfall from late tonight
into Tuesday would be most areas receiving another 1 to 2 inches of
rain, except locally up to 3 inches across the Santa Ynez range.
Peak rain rates of 0.25-0.50 inches per hour will be common, with
isolated rates up to 0,80 inches per hour likely near thunderstorms
and S-SW facing foothills/coastal slopes(especially in the Santa
Ynez mountains and western Ventura mountains). Due to the abundant
rainfall during the past 48 hours, additional expected rainfall will
bring threats of minor roadway/small stream flooding, additional
rockslides/mudslides, and minor/shallow debris flows in recent burn
scars. There is a 20-30 percent chance of reaching debris flow
thresholds (15, 30, 60 minute durations) in the recent burn scars.

Snow levels are expected to be above 7000 feet during the onset of
this next storm, but are expected to lower to between 5000 and 6000
feet by Monday night, and around 4500 feet on Tuesday. Snow
accumulations of 1-3 inches will be possible for elevations above
6000 feet, with higher amounts above resort levels (above 8000 feet)
likely. Dry and mild conditions are then expected on Wednesday, then
another storm system may impact the region Thursday and Friday. However
there remains considerable uncertainty in the timing aoounts, and
intensities with this next storm.

$$

Gomberg