881
FXUS63 KLSX 042008
AFDLSX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service St Louis MO
208 PM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a low to medium chance of a light freeze both Friday
  and Saturday nights, mainly in river valleys.

- Dry weather and moderating temperatures are forecast next
  week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 204 PM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

A mostly cloudy sky is expected to continue into this evening,
but the combination of advection and nocturnal stabilization
(losing cumuliform elements of the cloud deck) should lead to a
decrease in cloudiness tonight from southwest to northeast.
West/southwest winds however should stay up enough to preclude
more favorable conditions for radiational cooling. Lows are
expected to drop into the low to mid 40s, or about 3-7 degrees
warmer than normal for the date.

A secondary cold front is forecast to move through the CWA on
Thursday. Behind this front, look for another round of lower stratus
clouds along with some isolated to scattered light rain showers
and/or sprinkles. Based on the expected timing of this front, there
also will be a temperature gradient from northwest to southeast
across the area. Highs only in the mid 50s are forecast in northeast
Missouri and west-central Illinois, with mid 60s in southeast
Missouri and southwest Illinois. The aforementioned low clouds and
brisk north/northwest winds will help mitigate the temperature
drop again Thursday night, with lows mostly in the low to mid
40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 204 PM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

(Friday - Saturday Night)

Slightly below normal temperatures are expected heading into the
weekend behind Thursday`s cold front. High temperatures both Friday
and Saturday are expected to be mainly in the low to mid 50s and the
coldest so far this Fall season. A surface high is forecast to move
south out of the Upper Midwest on Friday, with surface ridging
across our region into the weekend. The combination of a clear sky
and light/variable winds should allow for temperatures to drop into
the 30s both Friday and Saturday nights. Favored valley terrain
likely will see their first freeze of the season, but most areas
probably will stay just above the freezing mark. The air mass coming
in is not anomalous by any means (850-hPa T anomalies of 2-4C), but
it is so late in the year that it is not that difficult to get near-
freezing lows behind any cold front.


(Sunday - Next Wednesday)

Ensemble guidance is in very good agreement in a dry pattern late
this weekend into early next week along with moderating
temperatures. Lows in the 40s and highs in the 60s are forecast
through the period. Confidence is pretty high in these temperatures
for a days 3-7 forecast given very little spread in the longwave
pattern across the CONUS in the LREF. The 13Z NBM also shows this
well, with only a ~3-5F degree difference between the 25th and 75th
percentiles across the region for both highs and lows.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1100 AM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

Low stratocumulus clouds will continue to slowly lift this
afternoon, with most of the area getting above 3 kft AGL by
early evening. Another cold front will move through the region
during the day on Thursday, with winds veering from the
west/southwest to the northwest.

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gosselin
LONG TERM...Gosselin
AVIATION...Gosselin