433
FXUS63 KLSX 162341
AFDLSX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
641 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A daily chance for showers and thunderstorms continues through this
  weekend.

- A prolonged streak of heat index values >100 degrees is forecast
  to begin as early as Saturday.


&&

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Thursday Night)
Issued at 241 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Recent surface observations show a cold front stretching from the
Great Lakes southwest through Iowa, northwest Missouri, and Kansas.
This feature will sink south tonight into northeast Missouri and
west central Illinois, an environment characterized by 4000 J/kg of
SBCAPE and 10 to 20 kts of effective shear. The front moving into
this high instability air will cause isolated to scattered convective
development along it, but low shear will keep activity mostly
disorganized. PWATs above the 90th percentile of climatology,
landing near 2", will ensure that thunderstorms will be moisture-
heavy. Because of this, primary hazards in any thunderstorms that
become strong to severe will be gusty to damaging winds.

Flash flooding will be a greater concern tonight than the
aforementioned wind threat. Overnight, the coverage of thunderstorms
is expected to increase under the influence of a weak (20 - 25 kt)
low-level jet. Although they`ll be weaker due to lessening
instability, this will actually make them more conducive for
producing efficient heavy rainfall. Cores in this lesser CAPE
environment will be less likely to rocket upward and immediately
drop their load and die, giving them a higher potential at dropping
heavy rain consistently over their lifespan. Deep warm cloud layers
of >6 km along with the uncharacteristically high PWATs support
efficient rainfall in these cores as well, and weak (15 - 30 kt) mid
to upper level shear supports slow moving convection. Although back-
building won`t be a concern, there will still be the potential for
training tonight, which increases the risk for flash flooding in
northeast Missouri and west-central Illinois. The HREF LPMM echoes
this well with it consistently showing a swath of 3 - 5" of 24 hour
rainfall ending Thursday evening. Although the amount and location
should not be taken as gospel, it is a good indicator that the
threat for flash flooding in these areas is a realistic one.

The cold front is forecast to stall in the southern half of the CWA
tomorrow. A mid-level shortwave interacting with the front will
encourage thunderstorm development during the afternoon in an
environment similar to the one discussed in the paragraph above.
Training thunderstorms are expected in the vicinity of I-44 (MO)/I-
64 (IL) and south, though this may shift north depending on where
exactly the front settles. With weak mid-level shear, deep warm
cloud layers, and high PWATs still in place, flash flooding will
again be a threat. Portions of southeast Missouri have also seen
plenty of rainfall over the past few weeks, making them more
susceptible to flash flooding than other locations.

Tomorrow, the front will provide heat relief those behind it. Areas
north of I-70 will struggle to hit 85 degrees with similar heat
index values. Ahead of the front, however, the heat will be similar
to that of today.

Jaja

&&

.LONG TERM...  (Friday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 241 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

The cold front turned quasi-stationary front will meander around the
forecast area from Friday through Monday. Multiple shortwaves
interacting with it and ample instability each day will keep the
potential for showers and thunderstorms around over the same period
to varying degrees. By Saturday, ridging to our south will push the
front over our northern CWA, lending most of the area over to a heat
concern rather than severe weather/flash flooding. This heat concern
will last through at least the middle of next week as temperatures
in the 90s and dewpoints in the 70s combine to create heat index
values of 100 to 105+ degree each day. A heat headline will need to
be issued down the line, despite model variation in the strength and
intensity of the ridge. The more impactful uncertainty is how the
front and passing shortwaves affect the heat forecast in northeast
Missouri and west-central Illinois. Possible increased cloud cover
and rain would leave these locations cooler than the rest, perhaps
not reaching Advisory criteria. This will need to be assessed in
future forecast issuances. For now, confidence is high in a long
duration hot streak outside of these areas.

Jaja

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 637 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Showers and thunderstorms continue to move east through portions
of the area this evening. Exact timing of these thunderstorms
reaching the Mid-Missouri and St. Louis metropolitan terminals is
uncertain given the nature of the boundary they`re riding along.
Provided a best estimate in the TAFs. The same holds true for the
behavior of higher coverage overnight convection and tomorrow
afternoon`s round of showers and thunderstorms. Confidence is high
that each round will occur, but low in direct impacts at any
given terminal. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected outside of
any showers and thunderstorms, and winds will shift to the north
behind the boundary.

Jaja

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

$$

WFO LSX