231
FXUS63 KLSX 271035
AFDLSX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
435 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A brief "warm-up" will last today and tomorrow. Portions of
  southeast Missouri may see high temperatures at or above freezing
  each day.

- Dangerously cold conditions are expected again late this week
  into this weekend.


&&

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 145 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2026

Low-level southwest winds have become established in much of the
Midwest, and warmer air is advecting into the area as a result.
Because of this, we`ve been seeing steady if not rising temperatures
this morning, and the coldest wind chills have already passed
despite the early hour. The warmer air will be much more
noticeable this afternoon as highs climb into the 20s and 30s
from north to south. A small area of southeast Missouri may even
see temperatures reach or exceed freezing with the HREF giving a
30-60% chance of this occurring south of Farmington.

A cold front will move through the CWA this morning, ushering in
another round of cold air. This airmass won`t be nearly as brutal as
what we`ve seen over the past several nights. Tonight will be a few
degrees colder than this morning as a result, but incoming surface
high pressure will keep winds dampened and prevent Advisory level
wind chills. In fact, for most locations Wednesday will be even
warmer than today in spite of the cold front. The potential for
highs of 32+ degrees increases to 40-70% in all of Missouri south of
I-70.

Jaja

&&

.LONG TERM...  (Tuesday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 145 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2026

Another Arctic airmass is forecast to overtake the region late in
the week. Although the cold is pretty solidly centered in the
Thursday to Saturday timeframe, the coldest conditions will depend
on the exact timing and track of the associated surface high.
Ensembles show an anomalously strong surface high, peaking at
1046+ mb/>99th percentile of climatology with 850 mb temperatures
dropping to near -20C/<5th percentile of climatology. This would
give parts of the region a solid chance (70%+) at seeing low
actual temperatures below 0 again this weekend with wind chills
under -10 degrees. Regardless of exact values, a return to
dangerous cold this weekend is a near certainty. On a positive
note, confidence is increasing in moderating temperatures next
week.

Precipitation chances are slim to none this week despite multiple
shortwaves and cold frontal passages. It is possible that brief
flurries or light snow accompanies one or some of these features,
but that`s the extent of any potential at this point. The most
tangible chance for snow we have is on Sunday (10-20%), but details
are nebulous at this time range.

Jaja

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 432 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2026

Dry and VFR conditions will prevail through tonight. A weak cold
front will pass from northwest to southeast this morning, shifting
winds from southwesterly to northwesterly in its wake. Winds will
become elevated to gusty today as the front passes, but will
quick lighten tonight as high pressure moves in.

Jaja

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

$$

WFO LSX