922
FNUS73 KLSX 131509
FWSLSX

Spot Forecast for LREC Nursery Woods burn...LREC
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
1009 AM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1200 CDT on March 13.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the
National Weather Service.

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 1 AM CDT
SATURDAY...

.DISCUSSION...
Well-above average temperatures will persist with light southeeasterly
winds and moisture slightly higher than previous days. At ignition, RH
will be falling below 50 percent and reaching a minimum of around 30 to
40 percent this afternoon. Mixing heights will also start around 2000 ft
AGL, quickly rising to between 5500 and 6000 ft AGL this afternoon,
allowing for ventilation rates to also improve, despite the light winds.
Lastly, there is also a 20 percent chance of an isolated shower or
thunderstorm late this afternoon/evening, but predominantly dry
conditions are anticipated.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent). Isolated showers and
                    thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
Temperature.........72 at ignition...Max 80.
RH..................51 percent at ignition...Min 39 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds east at 4 mph at ignition...becoming
                    southeast around 5 mph late in the afternoon.
                    Gusty and erratic winds expected near any
                    isolated thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
Eye level winds.....Winds east at 1 mph at ignition...becoming
                    southeast late in the afternoon, using a 0.3
                    adjustment factor.
Mixing height.......2200 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise max 5700 ft
                    AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 8 to 10 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor /2390 m/s-m/ at ignition. Max...good /8060
                    m/s-m/.

TIME (CDT)      NOON   2 PM   4 PM   6 PM   8 PM   10 PM
Sky (%).........7      4      9      20     11     4
Weather cov.....              ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD
Weather type....NONE   NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE
Tstm cov........              ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD
CWR.............0      0      20     20     20     10
Temp............72     78     80     79     71     67
RH..............51     43     39     39     53     63
20 ft wind......E 4    SE 5   SE 5   SE 5   SE 5   S 6
20 ft wind gust.7      8      9      9      11     12
Eye level wind..E 2    SE 2   SE 2   SE 2   SE 2   S 3
Eye lvl wnd gst.3      4      4      4      5      6
Mix hgt (kft)...2.2    4.0    5.7    3.6    0.5    0.6
Transport wind..SE 8   SE 8   S 10   S 10   S 12   S 14
Vrate kt-ft/1K..15     28     51     32     5      7
Ventrate Cat....POOR   POOR   FAIR   POOR   POOR   POOR

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (20-30 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (55-65 percent). Isolated showers
                    and thunderstorms early in the evening.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
Temperature.........Min 58.
RH..................Max 90 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 5 to 7 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms early in the
                    evening.
Eye level winds.....Southeast winds 2 mph, using a 0.3 adjustment
                    factor.
Mixing height.......Min 500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 10 to 16 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Marginal (5040 m/s-m) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor min (790 m/s-m) late in the
                    night.

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent).
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
Temperature.........Max 83.
RH..................Min 36 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 8 to 16 mph with gusts to
                    around 31 mph shifting to the south 18 to 23
                    mph with gusts to around 43 mph in the
                    afternoon.
Eye level winds.....Southeast winds 2 to 5 mph with gusts to
                    around 9 mph shifting to the south 5 to 7
                    mph with gusts to around 13 mph in the
                    afternoon, using a 0.3 adjustment factor.
Mixing height.......Max 5100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 16 to 24 mph increasing to 38 to 44 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (1790 m/s-m) early in the morning
                    increasing to good max (14530 m/s-m) in the
                    afternoon increasing to excellent (20940 m/s-m)
                    in the afternoon.

$$
Forecaster...Pfahler
Requested by...Adam Rembert
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2506383.0/LSX
.DELDT 03/13/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0