017
FNUS73 KLSX 180105
FWSLSX

Spot Forecast for Elvins Wildfire...MO DNR
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
705 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1900 CST on November 17.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the
National Weather Service.

.DISCUSSION...

The rest of the evening is expected to be dry, with gradually rising
relative humidity.  There is a slight chance (20 percent) for showers
and thunderstorms overnight, most likely after 300 AM.  Winds tonight
will stay out of the south at 8 to 10 mph with some gusts up to
around 20 possible.  Higher gusts are possible if a thunderstorm
passes over the wildfire.

Tuesday will be warmer and more humid, with minimum relative humidity
bottoming out around 60 percent. There is a slight chance for showers
and thunderstorms, mainly during the morning. Southerly winds early
in the morning will turn to the southwest by late morning, and then
to the northwest late in the afternoon as a cold front passes through
the area.  Wind speeds will be around 10 mph with gusts up to 20 mph.
Higher gusts will be possible near thunderstorms. Mixing heights
may not break 1700 feet until early afternoon, but are expected to
max out around 4000 feet.

.REST OF TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain and thunderstorms early in the evening.
                    Slight chance of rain and thunderstorms after 3
                    am.
CWR.................20 percent decreasing to 10 percent in the late
                    evening and overnight, then increasing to 20
                    percent after 3 am.
Chance of thunder...20 percent.
Temperature.........52 at forecast start...Min 48.
RH..................41 percent at forecast start...Max 100 percent.
Eye level winds.....Light south wind with occasional gusts to
                    around 7 mph.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds southeast at 8 mph at forecast
                    start...otherwise South winds 8 to 10 mph with
                    gusts to around 23 mph. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms early in the
                    evening. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms after 3 am.
Mixing height.......600 ft AGL at forecast start...otherwise min
                    500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 17 to 22 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor /1450 m/s-m/ at forecast start. Min...poor
                    /1190 m/s-m/.

TIME (CST)      7 PM   9 PM   11 PM  1 AM   3 AM   5 AM
Sky (%).........80     74     73     70     66     73
Weather cov.....S CHC  S CHC                       S CHC
Weather type....RAIN   RAIN   NONE   NONE   NONE   RAIN
Tstm cov........S CHC  S CHC                       S CHC
CWR.............20     20     10     10     10     20
Chc of thdr (%).20     20     10     10     10     20
Temp............52     48     48     48     49     49
RH..............41     56     60     65     77     96
20 ft wind......SE 8   S 10   S 10   S 10   S 10   S 10
20 ft wind gust.21     22     21     22     22     22
Eye level wind..SE 4   S 5    S 5    S 5    S 5    S 5
Eye lvl wnd gst.10     10     10     10     10     10
Mix hgt (kft)...0.6    0.5    0.5    0.7    0.7    0.7
Transport wind..SE 18  S 20   S 17   S 18   S 22   SW 21
Vrate kt-ft/1K..9      8      8      11     14     13
Ventrate Cat....POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain and thunderstorms early in the morning.
                    Slight chance of rain and thunderstorms late in
                    the morning.
CWR.................20 percent decreasing to 10 percent early in
                    the morning, then increasing to 20 percent late
                    in the morning decreasing to 10 percent late in
                    the morning.
Chance of thunder...17 percent.
Temperature.........Max 74.
RH..................Min 57 percent.
Eye level winds.....Light southwest wind with gusts to around 7 mph.
                    Wind shifting to the west late in the afternoon.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 9 to 11 mph with gusts to
                    around 22 mph shifting to the west around 5 mph
                    late in the afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms early in the
                    morning. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms late in the morning.
Mixing height.......Max 4100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 20 to 23 mph becoming west 8 to 12
                    mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (660 m/s-m) early in the morning
                    increasing to good max (12220 m/s-m) in the
                    afternoon.

$$
Forecaster...Carney
Requested by...Ron Colatskie
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2526224.0/LSX
.DELDT 11/17/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0