675
FNUS73 KLSX 101141
FWSLSX

Spot Forecast for Monarch SAR...Monarch FPD Chesterfield
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
641 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0700 CDT on July 10.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the
National Weather Service.

.DISCUSSION...
Scattered thunderstorms will continue to produce intermittent
heavy rain along a line running from west-northwest to east-
southeast, directly through Pilot Knob, through roughly 8 am.
This heavy rain will not be as continuous as it was overnight,
and this may slow the water rises in smaller streams and ditches,
but the threat of flash flooding will continue throughout this
period. Additional rain amounts of 1 to 2 inches are
possible prior to 9 am, but this will be sporadic. We do expect
that storms will begin to diminish by roughly 9 am, and we should
see water start to recede in creeks and streams by this time.
However, water is expected to continue to rise in larger rivers
throughout the day, particularly the main stem of the Black River,
which is expected to crest above Moderate Flood Stage this
afternoon.

Aside from the threat of flooding, occasional wind gusts to 40-50
mph will be possible with thunderstorms, but this will not be
common. Given that the ground is very saturated, this may
increase the threat of occasional downed trees.


.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent). Scattered thunderstorms
                    with intermittent heavy rain through 9 am. Becoming less
                    frequent during the day.
Temperature.........74 at forecast start...Max 90.
RH..................90 percent at forecast start...Min 68 percent.
Surface winds (mph).Light winds.

TIME (CDT)      7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM
Sky (%).........73  64  55  55  55  55  55  48  42  41  41  50
Weather cov.....CHC CHC CHC                 SCH     CHC LKY LKY
Weather type....RW  RW  RW                  RW      RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........                            SCH     CHC CHC CHC
Temp............74  77  79  82  84  86  88  88  88  88  87  85
RH..............90  88  85  79  74  72  68  68  68  68  72  77
Surface wnd dir.N   W   SW  SW  W   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  W
Surface wnd spd.5   3   2   3   3   3   5   3   3   3   2   1
Surface wnd gst.10  10  10  13  13  13  14  14  14  14  10  9

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (55-65 percent). Showers likely
                    in the evening. Chance of thunderstorms with heavy rain through
                    the night.
Temperature.........Min 70.
RH..................Max 100 percent.
Surface winds (mph).Light winds.

$$
Forecaster...19
Requested by...Les Crews
Type of request...SAR
.TAG 2617152.0/LSX
.DELDT 07/10/26
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0