Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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000
FNUS73 KLSX 191017
FWSLSX

Spot Forecast for Basket Area Research Area Burn...Missouri Department of Conservation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
517 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2019

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 CDT on October 19.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the
National Weather Service.

.DISCUSSION...
Showers are likely today for areas north and west of Saint
Louis, otherwise expect dry weather until Sunday night.
A cold front will move through this afternoon shifting winds
from southerly to from the northwest.


.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent) then becoming
                    cloudy (90-100 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers late in the morning.
Chance of pcpn......50 percent.
Temperature.........50 at ignition...Max 62.
RH..................77 percent at ignition...Min 62 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds south at 5 mph at ignition...otherwise
                    south winds around 5 mph early in the morning
                    becoming west by early afternoon.
Eye level winds.....South wind at 2 mph, becoming west by early afternoon,
                    using a 0.4 adjustment factor.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth at ignition...max 4.
Mixing height.......300 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise max 2200 ft
                    AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 7 to 9 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor /420 m/s-m/ at ignition. Max...poor /2060
                    m/s-m/.

TIME (CDT)      8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM   6 PM
Sky (%).........39     47     77     93     95     95
Weather cov.....       S CHC  CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
Weather type....NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........
CWR.............10     20     40     50     50     30
Temp............50     57     61     62     61     58
RH..............77     67     62     67     72     80
20 ft wind......S 5    S 5    SW 5   W 5    W 4    W 3
20 ft wind gust.7      7      7      7      6      5
Eye level wind..S 2    S 2    SW 2   W 2    W 2    W 1
Eye lvl wnd gst.3      3      3      3      3      2
Mix hgt (kft)...0.3    0.5    1.6    1.7    0.8    0.7
Transport wind..S 9    S 7    SW 7   W 8    NW 8   NW 7
Haines index....4      4      4      4      3      2
Vrate kt-ft/1K..3      3      10     12     6      4
Ventrate Cat....POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent) then becoming
                    partly cloudy (40-50 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers early in the evening. Patchy fog early
                    in the morning.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
Temperature.........Min 46.
RH..................Max 96 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds.
Eye level winds.....Calm wind.
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......Min 500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 6 to 7 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (360 m/s-m).

.SUNDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent). Patchy fog early
                    in the morning.
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
Temperature.........Max 68.
RH..................Min 56 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southeast 5 to 7 mph in
                    the afternoon.
Eye level winds.....Calm wind becoming southeast 2 to 3 mph in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......Max 2200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 3 to 10 mph increasing to 13 to 15
                    mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (680 m/s-m).

$$

Forecaster...TES
Requested by...Ben Webster
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1917544.0/LSX
.DELDT 10/19/19
.FormatterVersion 1.0.26


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